Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

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Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<p>US economic growth since Q2 has been heavily driven by strength in big-ticket items, such as housing and light truck sales in stark contrast to the last recovery. Converse to the view of pessimists, the sharp rise in household thrift in Q2 has not presaged a subsequent collapse in consumer spending.</p>
<div>Pessimists are currently focused on elevated levels of initial unemployment claims as being a harbinger that the economy is about to sink into the abyss, but this metric has been heavily influenced by the sheer volume of new claimants during the lockdown and a lack of capacity at the state level to process applications. Meanwhile, the incidence of layoffs in the economy according to the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) report has returned to pre-pandemic levels.</div>
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<div>Chair Powell has repeated his call for fiscal stimulus, but some critics claim the Trump Administration has little to gain politically from this initiative due to the proximity of the Presidential Election. Meanwhile, House Speaker Pelosi recently rejected a proposed Administration stimulus allegedly due to its insufficient magnitude. </div>
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<div>The US Treasury is sitting on an unprecedented pile of cash at the Fed in the aftermath of very high borrowing during Q2 and Q3 that can readily be deployed, pending Congressional approval, under the auspices of fiscal stimulus. Lower future borrowing by the Treasury will ease pressure on banks' reserves, thereby raising their capacity to boost outstanding bank credit.</div>
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<div>Investors believe further fiscal stimulus will eventually be forthcoming, thereby implying some impending changes to the slope of the US Treasury yield curve. Inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have recovered since their plunge during the early stages of the pandemic, while real yields have been stuck in negative territory since Q1, thereby implying that investors believe policy measures will eventually boost inflation while economic growth will remain very weak.</div>
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US economic growth since Q2 has been heavily driven by strength in big-ticket items, such as housing and light truck sales in stark contrast to the last recovery. Converse to the view of pessimists, the sharp rise in household thrift in Q2 has not presaged a subsequent collapse in consumer spending.
Pessimists are currently focused on elevated levels of initial unemployment claims as being a harbinger that the economy is about to sink into the abyss, but this metric has been heavily influenced by the sheer volume of new claimants during the lockdown and a lack of capacity at the state level to process applications. Meanwhile, the incidence of layoffs in the economy according to the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey) report has returned to pre-pandemic levels.


Chair Powell has repeated his call for fiscal stimulus, but some critics claim the Trump Administration has little to gain politically from this initiative due to the proximity of the Presidential Election. Meanwhile, House Speaker Pelosi recently rejected a proposed Administration stimulus allegedly due to its insufficient magnitude. 



The US Treasury is sitting on an unprecedented pile of cash at the Fed in the aftermath of very high borrowing during Q2 and Q3 that can readily be deployed, pending Congressional approval, under the auspices of fiscal stimulus. Lower future borrowing by the Treasury will ease pressure on banks' reserves, thereby raising their capacity to boost outstanding bank credit.



Investors believe further fiscal stimulus will eventually be forthcoming, thereby implying some impending changes to the slope of the US Treasury yield curve. Inflationary expectations embedded in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) have recovered since their plunge during the early stages of the pandemic, while real yields have been stuck in negative territory since Q1, thereby implying that investors believe policy measures will eventually boost inflation while economic growth will remain very weak.















US Economy Defies Doomsayers as Treasury's Record Cash Balance Prepares Ground for Further Stimulus