Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. </li>
<li>The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. </li>
<li>Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.</li>
</ul>


24 days after his catastrophic debate, and 29 days before the Democratic convention, President Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed VP Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. 
The latest polls showed Trump leading Biden by 3pp in the average of polls, including big leads in all seven battleground states. Harris is marginally closer in match-ups against Trump. 
Trump-Vance have momentum after RNC. To be competitive, Harris (if endorsed by DNC) would need to pick an exciting, moderate candidate (eg, PA governor Shapiro) and hew to the centre.


Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Independent Insight Provider

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.</li>
<li>Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. </li>
<li>Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.</li>
</ul>


DOW +0.59%, Russell -1.06%, SPX -1.39%, Nasdaq -2.77%, SOX -6.81% as investors shifted from growth to value stocks. UST10 was flat at 4.16%, and the yen strengthened to Y156.18.
Commodities were mixed with copper -0.3%, nickel -0.83%, and Brent +1.72%. Energy and consumer staples rose, with VSF +13.6% after Essilor Luxottica agreed to buy Supreme. US homebuilders lost ground. 
Tech stocks fell sharply after ASML's earnings missed estimates and news of potential US export restrictions to China. Focus on SPE names with high China exposure as shorts.


Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.</li>
<li>Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.</li>
<li>USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.</li>
</ul>


Trump secures Republican nomination. Trump v/s Biden again. Volatility will the biggest winner. Gold will thrive on rising geopolitical tensions.
Equities will face headwinds during Trump 2.0. European stocks and EM equities will underperform with anticipated trade restrictions and protectionism.
USD will weaken. Oil prices will fall. Defense sector will benefit from rising tensions and reduced US role in NATO and the world at large.


Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

Top 10 Mega Caps | Artificial Intelligence

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. </li>
<li>It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. </li>
<li>Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. 
It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. 
Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. 


[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

TSMC reports Q2 results on 18/Jul. Investors will look to fabs expansion in US & Japan, & progress in 2nm & 3nm chips. TSMC holding 62% of global...

Mint Finance

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Biden Leaves Presidential Race, Endorses VP Harris; Contest to Tighten if Dems Unite

​President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Japan Morning Connection – 18 July, 2024

​Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...

Andrew Jackson

Long Volatility & Gold, Caution on Equities, and Short Dollar & Oil Under Trump 2.0

Former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally. Initial assessment suggests that shooting will boost Trump’s chances of winning the...

Mint Finance

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

TSMC reports Q2 results on 18/Jul. Investors will look to fabs expansion in US & Japan, & progress in 2nm & 3nm chips. TSMC holding 62% of global...

Mint Finance

President Biden drops out, endorses VP Harris as Dem nominee. Latest polls showed Harris less behind Trump. Harris (if nominated) likely to pick...

Investors shift from growth to value stocks, tech stocks fall on ASML earnings miss and US export restrictions to China, VSF surges after Essilor...