Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Chinese indices have started to stabilise and bounce from the identified buy zones. The setups emerging are looking very encouraging for a decent rally ahead.When combined with the recent economic data and rhetoric/position of policy makers, the relative charts against the S&amp;P 500 are once again looking very interesting both from historical and short term perspectives.

Chinese indices have started to stabilise and bounce from the identified buy zones. The setups emerging are looking very encouraging for a decent rally ahead.When combined with the recent economic data and rhetoric/position of policy makers, the relative charts against the S&amp;P 500 are once again looking very interesting both from historical and short term perspectives.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.

Our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to our view that the market remains mixed-yet-constructive overall. We explain our outlook below. The S&amp;P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275 support holds, we expect to see 4400 followed by 4460. Should 4257 fail to hold, our next support levels to watch would be 4164 followed by 4120; we are constructive as long as 4120 holds.

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&amp;P 500  is now showing signs of exhaustion. There is a risk that this reverses somewhat and that the S&amp;P 500 will perform better over the short term.

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&amp;P 500  is now showing signs of exhaustion. There is a risk that this reverses somewhat and that the S&amp;P 500 will perform better over the short term.

SPX/NDX Ratio: Nasdaq Not as Attractive as It Was

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Macroeconomics

Aggregate demand is exceeding supply in the US economy, partly due to employment growth lagging behind the recovery in real output. Based on current trends, private sector payrolls will not return to their prior peaks for another 12-months, while there are debates as to whether recent gains are sustainable into 2022. 
Labour supply constraints on output could persist over the summer, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is probably discounting an easing of headwinds in September when schools re-open and enhanced unemployment insurance payments expire. Meanwhile, the long-term unemployed form a very large component of the total and the FOMC could face a pressure to resist tapering actions if this backdrop fails to improve quickly. 
Despite the slow recovery of the labour market, consumer spending remain well-underpinned and far less dependent on equity withdrawal compared to the last period of strong house price appreciation. Companies will be keen to bridge the gap between supply and demand by making up for last year's lost capital spending plans, but there are concerns about excess new capacity being brought on stream when the economy is destined to slow.
<div>Long-term US Treasury yields have been declining since March due to investors demanding lower real returns, thereby implying concerns about the economic outlook if the FOMC decides to taper asset purchases. In the aftermath of the taper tantrum, bond investors eventually forced the FOMC to lower their estimate of the neutral policy rate. Valuations for perfectly-priced US equities are vulnerable if the economic slowdown anticipated by US Treasury investors is sufficiently large to negatively impact corporate profit expectations.</div>

Aggregate demand is exceeding supply in the US economy, partly due to employment growth lagging behind the recovery in real output. Based on current trends, private sector payrolls will not return to their prior peaks for another 12-months, while there are debates as to whether recent gains are sustainable into 2022. 
Labour supply constraints on output could persist over the summer, but the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is probably discounting an easing of headwinds in September when schools re-open and enhanced unemployment insurance payments expire. Meanwhile, the long-term unemployed form a very large component of the total and the FOMC could face a pressure to resist tapering actions if this backdrop fails to improve quickly. 
Despite the slow recovery of the labour market, consumer spending remain well-underpinned and far less dependent on equity withdrawal compared to the last period of strong house price appreciation. Companies will be keen to bridge the gap between supply and demand by making up for last year's lost capital spending plans, but there are concerns about excess new capacity being brought on stream when the economy is destined to slow.
Long-term US Treasury yields have been declining since March due to investors demanding lower real returns, thereby implying concerns about the economic outlook if the FOMC decides to taper asset purchases. In the aftermath of the taper tantrum, bond investors eventually forced the FOMC to lower their estimate of the neutral policy rate. Valuations for perfectly-priced US equities are vulnerable if the economic slowdown anticipated by US Treasury investors is sufficiently large to negatively impact corporate profit expectations.

US Growth Held Back by Supply Constraints, but US Treasury Investors Predict Slower Times Ahead

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to hold or break that will define tech risk. HK tech rippling into global cycle as Europe breaks key supports.1-2 day downside spikes have been a buying opportunities in recent months and July seasonality is strong into mid-July and should then taper off.Risk lies with a key low today, spring back Friday and then re tests support conviction in order to set the stage for a fresh risk on push.

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to hold or break that will define tech risk. HK tech rippling into global cycle as Europe breaks key supports.1-2 day downside spikes have been a buying opportunities in recent months and July seasonality is strong into mid-July and should then taper off.Risk lies with a key low today, spring back Friday and then re tests support conviction in order to set the stage for a fresh risk on push.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

China Back at the Buy Zone

Chinese indices are turning from great levels. The emerging setups suggest a significant rally ahead and possibly the outperformance against the...

Shyam Devani

U.S. Equity Strategy: SPX 4400 Target In Sight

The S&P 500 remains bullish, progressing past our first target of 4350 and now on its way to our next target of 4400-4406. As long as 4257-4275...

Vermilion Research

SPX/NDX Ratio: Nasdaq Not as Attractive as It Was

The recent outperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the S&P 500 is now showing signs of exhaustion. The S&P 500 is starting to look better from a...

Shyam Devani

US Growth Held Back by Supply Constraints, but US Treasury Investors Predict Slower Times Ahead

Barring current labour supply constraints, US growth would be even stronger. US Treasury investors are discounting slowing growth, particularly if...

DeSaque Macro Research

NDX and SPX Pivot Supports a Must Hold

SPX trendline and price support at 4,250/65 is a key inflection point to hold. NDX well defined trendline support is a bull/bear pivot to watch to...

Thomas Schroeder