Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.</li><li>I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.</li><li>For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.</li></ul>

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We introduce a new section this month showing implied vol vs average absolute December price movement. A good way to screen for straddle candidates for the month ahead.</li>
<li>Implied vols came in hard in November with the US election and the FOMC in the rear-view mirror.</li>
<li>Price performance across markets especially strong in the final week of the month with SP500, Nifty and SPASX200 postive on the month ~ 70% of the time. </li>
</ul>


We introduce a new section this month showing implied vol vs average absolute December price movement. A good way to screen for straddle candidates for the month ahead.
Implied vols came in hard in November with the US election and the FOMC in the rear-view mirror.
Price performance across markets especially strong in the final week of the month with SP500, Nifty and SPASX200 postive on the month ~ 70% of the time. 


EQD | Asia December Vol Roadmap - The Big Exhale

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>Quick trading idea:  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> DAILY is overbought. Has been closing up for 7 days in a row, soon there will be a DAILY reversal (lasting =&gt; 1 day).</li>
<li>The ideal area to go short is the price area above yesterday's Close (6021.63).</li>
<li>Alternatively go SHORT today at the Close. The interactive chart for the SPX DAILY can be freely accessed <a href="https://www.qantrading.com/quantcharts/Americas/SPX_DAILY/SPX_DAILY.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</li>
</ul>


Quick trading idea:  S&amp;P 500 INDEX DAILY is overbought. Has been closing up for 7 days in a row, soon there will be a DAILY reversal (lasting =&gt; 1 day).
The ideal area to go short is the price area above yesterday's Close (6021.63).
Alternatively go SHORT today at the Close. The interactive chart for the SPX DAILY can be freely accessed here.


EQD | Flash: S&P500 - State Of The Odds DAILY (Overbought!)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.</li>
<li>Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)</li>
<li>The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
Last week's 11/5/24 report titled "Buy the Pullback" discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025


Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

<ul>
<li>The US Elections are behind the corner, this insight will try to predict both the elections' winner and the subsequent S&amp;P500 direction based on MRM research and other studies.</li>
<li>The "Trump Trade" is considered by many as a trade to take advantage of (or bet against) a number of policies that Donald Trump has promised to implement if elected.</li>
<li>Let's see what our models have to say about this crucial stock market passage that is going to happen next week, from November 5th...</li>
</ul>


The US Elections are behind the corner, this insight will try to predict both the elections' winner and the subsequent S&amp;P500 direction based on MRM research and other studies.
The "Trump Trade" is considered by many as a trade to take advantage of (or bet against) a number of policies that Donald Trump has promised to implement if elected.
Let's see what our models have to say about this crucial stock market passage that is going to happen next week, from November 5th...


EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

EQD | Asia December Vol Roadmap - The Big Exhale

New section introduced to compare implied volatility with average price movement in December, useful for identifying straddle candidates. Implied...

John Ley

EQD | Flash: S&P500 - State Of The Odds DAILY (Overbought!)

The S&P 500 INDEX is overbought, suggesting a potential daily reversal soon. Consider going short above yesterday's close or at today's close or...

Nico Rosti

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

A forecast of the US elections winner, and S&P500's direction, based on our MRM research + previous 2016 / 2020 elections trade patterns. Analysis...

Nico Rosti

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

EQD | Asia December Vol Roadmap - The Big Exhale

​New section introduced to compare implied volatility with average price movement in December, useful for identifying straddle candidates. Implied...

John Ley

EQD | Flash: S&P500 - State Of The Odds DAILY (Overbought!)

​The S&P 500 INDEX is overbought, suggesting a potential daily reversal soon. Consider going short above yesterday's close or at today's close or...

Nico Rosti

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-Of-Year Rally Underway; Four Sector Upgrades, One Downgrade

Ride the Trend Higher; Significant End-of-Year Rally Underway $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Four Sector Upgrades ($XLF to overweight, $XLY $XLI and $IYT to...

Vermilion Research

EQD | SPX - The "TRUMP TRADE" (And US Elections Forecast) From Our Models Perspective

A forecast of the US elections winner, and S&P500's direction, based on our MRM research + previous 2016 / 2020 elections trade patterns. Analysis...

Nico Rosti

New section introduced to compare implied volatility with average price movement in December, useful for identifying straddle candidates. Implied...

The S&P 500 INDEX is overbought, suggesting a potential daily reversal soon. Consider going short above yesterday's close or at today's close or...