Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.</li>
<li>This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.</li>
<li>Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.</li>
</ul>


Our aggregate bellwether earnings indicator point to a 20% decline in global earnings-per-share.
This contrasts sharply with market expectations, which continue to project earnings growth in all major regions.
Combining our earnings estimate with current global equity market valuation also results in significant downside.


Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not <em>have to</em> end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).</li>
<li>Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.</li>
<li>Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.</li>
</ul>


WTR Sustainable Index: During the week ended May 19, 2023, the WTR Sustainable Index outperformed the broader market, rising 4.4% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index (up 3.0%).
Advanced Transportation Solutions (69.0% of the index) drove the index’s outperformance, rising 6.2%, while Energy Technology (7.9% of the index) was up 0.1% and Industrial Climate and Ag Technology was up 0.9%.
Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&amp;P 500.


Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

<ul><li>Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.</li><li>This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.</li><li>1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.</li></ul>

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y.This beat consensus of $123.0 million. The revenue increase was driven by three new stores and strength in its New Jersey, Virginia, and West Virginia operations.1Q adjusted EBITDA declined to $16.4 million from $17.4 million in 4Q. This was below consensus of $17.4 million.

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

<ul>
<li>AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.</li>
<li>The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.</li>
<li>Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.</li>
</ul>


AI-Hyped US Equities are not off the hook. The US Leading Indicator dropped for the 13th consecutive month, taking the index further into recessionary territory.
The rally in Big Tech stocks hides that only just over one-third of NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average, the threshold between positive and negative future returns.
Singapore electronics exports were down a whopping 23.3% year-on-year in April, indicating a severe decline in global earnings-per-share numbers.


Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Global Earnings on the Edge: A Concise Analysis of Key EPS Indicators

Our analysis of bellwether earnings indicators reveals a 20% decline in earnings-per-share for global equities is on the horizon!

Jeroen Blokland

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor : Week Ended May 19, 2023

Valuation: Based on forward 12-month consensus estimates, the current P/E ratio of the WTR Sustainable index is 25.9x versus 19.5x for the S&P 500.

Water Tower Research

The Highlights : Cannabis News for the Week Ending May 19, 2023

Columbia Care (NEO: CCHW, OTCQX: CCHWF) reported 1Q revenue of $124.5 million, down 1.3% Q/Q and up 1.2% Y/Y. This beat consensus of $123.0 million.

Water Tower Research

Weekly Market Monitor - Week 19 Macro Momentum Is Fading, but Market Momentum Is Building.

Macro Momentum is fading, but market Momentum is building. Even though the outlook for Equities is challenging, markets couldn't care less currently.

Jeroen Blokland