Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.</li>
<li>The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.</li>
<li>We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.</li>
</ul>


We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.
We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.


Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The hike to 22-year-high 5.375% restores a clearly positive real policy rate. Powell said there's "still a long way to go" before reaching 2% target, so policy must remain restrictive.</li>
<li>We think a mild recession coupled with 6+ months of YoY declines in M2 will enable core PCE inflation to recede to 3.5%YoY by Nov'23 and 2.5% by Jun'24. </li>
<li>Key indicator is MoM change in core PCE. The cumulative MoM gain in core PCE has averaged over 4.5% in the past 29 months. 5.5% peak FF rate by Sep'23. </li>
</ul>


The hike to 22-year-high 5.375% restores a clearly positive real policy rate. Powell said there's "still a long way to go" before reaching 2% target, so policy must remain restrictive.
We think a mild recession coupled with 6+ months of YoY declines in M2 will enable core PCE inflation to recede to 3.5%YoY by Nov'23 and 2.5% by Jun'24. 
Key indicator is MoM change in core PCE. The cumulative MoM gain in core PCE has averaged over 4.5% in the past 29 months. 5.5% peak FF rate by Sep'23. 


With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

<ul>
<li>Powell sounded much more dovish than during the previous FOMC meeting and had just one message: the Federal Reserve is now fully data-dependent regarding future monetary policy.</li>
<li>Powell believes the Fed is done and highlighted the balance between doing too much or too little. Before, the Fed had shown a clear willingness to risk doing too much.</li>
<li>Since the market was driven by central bank 'hopium,' Powell has taken a key catalyst from markets to move higher.</li>
</ul>


Powell sounded much more dovish than during the previous FOMC meeting and had just one message: the Federal Reserve is now fully data-dependent regarding future monetary policy.
Powell believes the Fed is done and highlighted the balance between doing too much or too little. Before, the Fed had shown a clear willingness to risk doing too much.
Since the market was driven by central bank 'hopium,' Powell has taken a key catalyst from markets to move higher.


Powell Is Done, but Whether the Fed Is Too Depends on the Data

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.</li>
<li>The outlook for cuts?</li>
<li>That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.</li>
</ul>


A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting.
The outlook for cuts?
That’s properly worth a watch series on its own but with long-end rates below 4%, equity markets making YTD highs, strong corporate profitability and a labor market that still shows strength, we venture to say that those cuts are likely not around the corner.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Easy comparisons contributed to lower US inflation in 2023 H1, but the backdrop in H2 is less favourable, thereby making the Fed wary of premature dovish policy pivots.</li>
<li>Economic soft-landings have never been good for corporate profits, thereby helping to explain why analysts have set such a low bar for the 2023 Q2 reporting season. </li>
<li>Glaring inconsistencies are embedded in the 2024 outlooks for corporate profits and Fed policy, notably resource utilisation in the US economy remains too elevated to quickly cull inflation pressures.</li>
</ul>


Easy comparisons contributed to lower US inflation in 2023 H1, but the backdrop in H2 is less favourable, thereby making the Fed wary of premature dovish policy pivots.
Economic soft-landings have never been good for corporate profits, thereby helping to explain why analysts have set such a low bar for the 2023 Q2 reporting season. 
Glaring inconsistencies are embedded in the 2024 outlooks for corporate profits and Fed policy, notably resource utilisation in the US economy remains too elevated to quickly cull inflation pressures.


US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

After the latest FOMC meeting and a dovish-sounding Powell, the odds we have reached the end of the tightening cycle have spiked, boding well for...

Jeroen Blokland

With a Positive Real FF Rate Restored, FOMC Hiking Cycle Is Nearly Done

Core PCE has risen annualised 4.5%+ since CY21. M2 contraction since Dec'22, and imminent recession, should enable core PCE inflation to recede...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Powell Is Done, but Whether the Fed Is Too Depends on the Data

A surprisingly dovish-sounding Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve is done hiking, depriving equity markets of Fed hopium!

Jeroen Blokland

Pause Watch: 25 bps and then a pause!?

A Fed pause historically means that the recession clock starts ticking and rings in the recession when the Fed starts cutting. The outlook for...

Steno Research

US Equities Outlook: Time for a Reality Check

US equity investors have embraced benign outlooks for inflation, Fed policy and a recovery in corporate profits. Resource utilisation has not,...

DeSaque Macro Research