Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Good News Is Good News

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities puke. Real economic data looks weak as well. Jobs still strong lending support. </li>
<li>Let’s start by honing in on the historic perspective of the recent moves in the yield curve.</li>
<li>Equity longs are already getting a taste of the curve medicine with SPX down some 6% in a month with long-end yields up more than 15%.</li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities puke. Real economic data looks weak as well. Jobs still strong lending support. 
Let’s start by honing in on the historic perspective of the recent moves in the yield curve.
Equity longs are already getting a taste of the curve medicine with SPX down some 6% in a month with long-end yields up more than 15%.


Recession Nugget: 4 Charts for the Equity Bears, 1 Chart for the Bulls!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.</li><li>We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.</li><li>Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li></ul>

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

<ul>
<li>Using a relatively short data sample, we show that buying bonds when the US 10-year real yield rises above 2% has been an attractive strategy.</li>
<li>Equities underperformed their long-term average once the real yield hit this critical level.</li>
<li>Moreover, the Federal Reserve Target Rate and the real yield tended to drop once the latter crossed the 2% threshold.</li>
</ul>


Using a relatively short data sample, we show that buying bonds when the US 10-year real yield rises above 2% has been an attractive strategy.
Equities underperformed their long-term average once the real yield hit this critical level.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve Target Rate and the real yield tended to drop once the latter crossed the 2% threshold.


Real Rates Above 2%? Buy Bonds and Sell Equities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Good News Is Good News

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Recession Nugget: 4 Charts for the Equity Bears, 1 Chart for the Bulls!

Takeaways: Yield curve looks prone to make equities pukeReal economic data looks weak as well Jobs still strong lending support Let’s start by...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards. We put...

Steno Research

Real Rates Above 2%? Buy Bonds and Sell Equities

Using a small data sample, as elevated real yields have become increasingly scarce, US 10-year real yields of 2% or more favor Treasuries over...

Jeroen Blokland