Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and US Equities, the S&amp;P 500 Index should collapse to 3,533 after the disappointing ISM reading of 46.7.</li>
<li>Our ISM - Implied Returns analysis reveals that even if the ISM Manufacturing recovers to above 50 in the coming months, there is no upside for US and Global Equities.</li>
<li>Finally, in each of the three ISM Manufacturing scenarios, there is upside for US Treasuries. The ISM Manufacturing Index is very clear on asset allocation: Bonds over Stocks, big time.</li>
</ul>


Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and US Equities, the S&amp;P 500 Index should collapse to 3,533 after the disappointing ISM reading of 46.7.
Our ISM - Implied Returns analysis reveals that even if the ISM Manufacturing recovers to above 50 in the coming months, there is no upside for US and Global Equities.
Finally, in each of the three ISM Manufacturing scenarios, there is upside for US Treasuries. The ISM Manufacturing Index is very clear on asset allocation: Bonds over Stocks, big time.


OUCH! The Slump in the ISM Manufacturing Suggests 20% Downside for Equities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point</li>
<li>Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened</li>
<li>Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened
Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.</li>
<li>There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.</li>
<li>So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?</li>
</ul>


The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.
There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.
So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?


Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.</li>
<li>Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.</li>
<li>Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.</li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell unintentionally re-emerged as a central bank dove. Yet, the poor ISM Manufacturing Index reading paints an entirely different picture, signaling 17%(!) downside.
Apart from the fact that US Small Caps cannot rely on Big Tech Companies to send prices higher, there is another compelling reason why they have been underperforming - debt.
Earnings season: Negative price reactions meet mixed surprises. This is especially true in the US, where valuation looks demanding. Interestingly, price-earnings action in China may signal a bottom is in.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

<ul>
<li>Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell &amp; Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.</li>
<li>Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.</li>
<li>Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&amp;P 500 Index, the S&amp;P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!</li>
</ul>


Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell &amp; Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.
Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.
Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&amp;P 500 Index, the S&amp;P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!


Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

OUCH! The Slump in the ISM Manufacturing Suggests 20% Downside for Equities

After the unexpected and steep decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index, Equities are looking at steep declines and may enter another bear market.

Jeroen Blokland

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Breaking Key Supports, several other reasons why we...

Vermilion Research

Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…

The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Did Powell Kill the Bear?

Start your week in financial markets with last week’s biggest stories! The Weekly Market Monitor will take you through the biggest charts and events.

Jeroen Blokland

Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly

The Fed gave investors a dovish tilt to what was aimed at a hawkish message, outflanking a very bearish message coming from the ISM Manufacturing!

Jeroen Blokland