Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes.</li>
<li>No surprises at the Fed meeting and relief at no hint of rate hikes despite the data</li>
<li>Prices Paid in the ISM predicting an uptick in CPI</li>
</ul>


A weekly review of recent events impacting our investment themes.
No surprises at the Fed meeting and relief at no hint of rate hikes despite the data
Prices Paid in the ISM predicting an uptick in CPI


Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.</li>
<li>April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.</li>
<li>Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.</li>
</ul>


US Nonfarm Payrolls shows disappointing growth in jobs, much lower than the anticipated addition of 243,000 jobs.
April’s print is also lower than the average monthly gain of 242,000 jobs over the previous 12 months.
Unemployment rate comes in at 3.9%, marginally higher than analyst expectations of 3.8%.


Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

<ul>
<li>Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.</li>
<li>Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.</li>
<li>Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.</li>
</ul>


Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.
Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.
Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.


Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector</li>
<li>Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit</li>
<li>Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.</li>
</ul>


BHP’s bid for Anglo American highlights the value currently in the mining sector
Chinese material stocks outperforming and the world is following suit
Speculative buying exhaustion may prompt a correction in copper and provide a good entry point.


"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Calmness returned to pockets of cross asset markets last week. </li><li>The long end of the US yield curve got off its highs, crude got back under USD 90 and equities are left as the only truly hurt asset with SPX dipping under 5k for the first time since Feb. </li><li>Month-to-date, Energy remains the only sector in green, underlining what we have been saying since the inception of this newsletter</li></ul>

Calmness returned to pockets of cross asset markets last week. The long end of the US yield curve got off its highs, crude got back under USD 90 and equities are left as the only truly hurt asset with SPX dipping under 5k for the first time since Feb. Month-to-date, Energy remains the only sector in green, underlining what we have been saying since the inception of this newsletter

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan continues to tinker around the edges, not impacting the JPY's primary trend, while the Federal Reserve continues to run an easy...

Rikki Malik

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Fed maintains fund rates at 5.25%-5.5%, Despite high inflation Chair Powell stated that rate hikes are unlikely, Continued strength in the labour...

Mint Finance

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

Hi everyone and welcome to this week’s energy cable from a sunny and cold Copenhagen. If you haven’t yet, I’ll recommend that you read our update...

Steno Research

Overview #3 -The Good, the Bad, and the Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan continues to tinker around the edges, not impacting the JPY's primary trend, while the Federal Reserve continues to run an easy...

Rikki Malik

Surprise Weakness Job Growth Brings Rate Cut Closer

​US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

Mint Finance

Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

Fed maintains fund rates at 5.25%-5.5%, Despite high inflation Chair Powell stated that rate hikes are unlikely, Continued strength in the labour...

Mint Finance

"There’s Gold in Them Thar Hills" – Value in the Diversified Mining Sector

​BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...

Rikki Malik

Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities

Hi everyone and welcome to this week’s energy cable from a sunny and cold Copenhagen. If you haven’t yet, I’ll recommend that you read our update...

Steno Research

US employment growth in April cools down and comes in lower than expected, Unemployment rate slightly above expectations, equities rally while...

BHP bid for Anglo highlights value in the mining sector. The long-term underperformance of the sector is in the process of being reversed and has...