Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. </li>
<li>Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF</li>
<li>Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we anticipated would continue into the early part of 2024. 
Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. We see small- and mid-caps resuming uptrends $IWM $VXF
Downgrading Staples (XLP) to underweight after brief stint at market weight. Highlighting several buys within Financials: Property &amp; Casualty Insurance BRK.B, PGR, CB, TRV, ALL, CINF, ERIE, and more


Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.</li>
<li>Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.</li>
<li>When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!</li>
</ul>


The US economy grew much faster than expected in Q4, raising questions about whether yields will ever hurt economic momentum. The secret: fight higher interest burdens with more debt.
Employees of the ECB are happy to work there. We get that, Christine, but this doesn’t make you a great leader. Let’s talk again when the ECB must cut rates before Summer.
When it comes to Macro policies, China is just like everyone else. Whenever there is a problem, don’t solve it; just throw debt and liquidity at it. Chinese stocks are outperforming this week!


The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy</li>
<li>The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative</li>
<li>December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide</li>
</ul>


US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy
The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative
December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide


Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.</li>
<li>However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.</li>
<li>The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Despite the rise and rise of the Magnificent 7, clues that this has made the S&amp;P 500 Index, and hence US stocks riskier, are limited.
However, looking at betas against other stock market indices and other asset classes reveals that risk associated with US stocks is trending slightly higher.
The key takeaway from this analysis, however, is that Treasuries - showing higher volatility and less diversification benefits - ARE quickly losing their appeal within a multi-asset portfolio.


Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

<ul>
<li>The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?</li>
<li>China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?</li>
<li>UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.</li>
</ul>


The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?
China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?
UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.


The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- And Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends; Downgrading Staples

Continue Riding This Bull Market Higher; Small- and Mid-Caps Resuming Uptrends $IWM $RTY $VXF; Downgrading Consumer Staples $XLP to Underweight...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Growth = Debt, China's Liquidity Wave & Earnings Not Falling off a Cliff

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on last week’s most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

​US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

Are the Magnificent 7 a Danger to Your Portfolio?

The quick answer is that the Magnificent 7 are not a significant threat to the risk-return characteristics of your portfolio. However, the case for...

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...