Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/048/281/original/CP%20header.jpg?1522122058" data-smartkarma-image-id="48281"></figure>In our macro weekend edition we outlined a tactical bounce level from S&amp;P 2,600-2,590.S&amp;P - 2,660 was sliced through but the primary support lies at 2,600-2,590. Below the later would seek out a new low near 2,450. Near term we see at least a tactical bounce from the lower 2,600 region with fresh resistance now at 2,660 and bigger resistance at 2,688 (then rolls over again).DJI - Triangle support break was a game changer and implies we try for a new chart low near sub 23k but near term we are…

In our macro weekend edition we outlined a tactical bounce level from S&amp;P 2,600-2,590.S&amp;P - 2,660 was sliced through but the primary support lies at 2,600-2,590. Below the later would seek out a new low near 2,450. Near term we see at least a tactical bounce from the lower 2,600 region with fresh resistance now at 2,660 and bigger resistance at 2,688 (then rolls over again).DJI - Triangle support break was a game changer and implies we try for a new chart low near sub 23k but near term we are…

Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.</li><li>Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)</li><li>Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed Bostic</li><li>Wednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi Arabia</li><li>Thursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBE</li><li>Friday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)</li><li>Saturday: China NBS PMI</li><li>Corporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)</li><li>Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech vs SPX. Contrarian long Russia equities vs EM. Stay long Saudi equities post-FTSE Russell index decision. No longer positioned for RMB basket-depreciation near-term. Take profit on short Philippine and Indian equities, long Malaysia. Close AUD-NZD.Monday: New Zealand trade, Fed Mester, EU-UK discuss Irish border, Egypt elections (Mon-Wed)Tuesday: Sweden economic tendency, $35bn 5yr UST auction, Hungary MNB, Argentina BCRA, Fed BosticWednesday: Germany consumer confidence, $29bn 7yr UST auction, Thailand BOT, South Africa SARB, FTSE Russell index decision for Saudi ArabiaThursday: Japan retail sales, Germany CPI, Canada GDP, US personal income/spending, Turkey GDP, Czech CNB, Egypt CBEFriday: Japan jobs/Tokyo CPI/IP, Turkey trade, Holidays (US, Singapore, HK, EU, UK, among others)Saturday: China NBS PMICorporate earnings: Agribank, Sinopec, China Vanke, China Evergrand (Mon), ICBC, CCB, Kweichow Moutai, Lululemon (Tue), Walgreens Boots, Monsanto, Citic, China Everbright (Wed), Bank of China, Bank of Communications, SAIC Motor, CNOOC, BOC HK (Thu)Market holidays: US, Singapore, HK, Australia, NZ, EU, UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil (Good Friday)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&amp;P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather a counter measure confirmation signal to the S&amp;P. We now have a high conviction pattern with well defined breakout in the DJI to work with post going into and out of the FOMC. The market interpretation of the FOMC statement with shape the bias and force a breakout of the DJI pattern that has been contracting.NDX and S&amp;P charts illustrate the relative…

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&amp;P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather a counter measure confirmation signal to the S&amp;P. We now have a high conviction pattern with well defined breakout in the DJI to work with post going into and out of the FOMC. The market interpretation of the FOMC statement with shape the bias and force a breakout of the DJI pattern that has been contracting.NDX and S&amp;P charts illustrate the relative…

This Index Will Make or Break the Global Cycle Post FOMC

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:• Technology: Overweight.  Technology remains a leadership Sector as uptrends and significant bases remain intact. The recent pullback has resulted in a number of groups breaking to new highs especially in the Software related groups. Historically investors will move to software related names to reduce risk as these companies often have a source of reoccurring revenue. Large- and Mid-cap semiconductors have also been quite resilient, whereas small- and micro-cap semis are seeing breakdowns in price and RS.• Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to plod up and to the right. Banks and thrifts, exchanges, investing banking and brokerage, pawn shops and Latin/South American banks look attractive.

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:• Technology: Overweight.  Technology remains a leadership Sector as uptrends and significant bases remain intact. The recent pullback has resulted in a number of groups breaking to new highs especially in the Software related groups. Historically investors will move to software related names to reduce risk as these companies often have a source of reoccurring revenue. Large- and Mid-cap semiconductors have also been quite resilient, whereas small- and micro-cap semis are seeing breakdowns in price and RS.• Financials: Overweight. Financials continue to plod up and to the right. Banks and thrifts, exchanges, investing banking and brokerage, pawn shops and Latin/South American banks look attractive.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Are Leadership, Small-Caps Are Closing the Gap.

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

A new secular bond bear market began in July 2016, and was confirmed that December, as a 9-year bull market Termination pattern broke upwards at 2.15%.  That introduced a long-term target at 5.32%.The initial rally in yields from 2016 allows us to model how the rise to above 5% should broadly unfold, and that model produces ultimate targets at 4.84% and then 5.27%.Cyclic analysis suggests the S&amp;P may be facing as much as a 3-to-4-year bear market, and our model shows that a sharply-rising 10-year yield could easily be one of the drivers behind the bear trend.

A new secular bond bear market began in July 2016, and was confirmed that December, as a 9-year bull market Termination pattern broke upwards at 2.15%.  That introduced a long-term target at 5.32%.The initial rally in yields from 2016 allows us to model how the rise to above 5% should broadly unfold, and that model produces ultimate targets at 4.84% and then 5.27%.Cyclic analysis suggests the S&amp;P may be facing as much as a 3-to-4-year bear market, and our model shows that a sharply-rising 10-year yield could easily be one of the drivers behind the bear trend.

S&P 500: Goldman Is Worried About the Effect of a 10-Year Yield at 4.5%; How About 5.3%?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Next Fade Trade in Tech

In our macro weekend edition we outlined a tactical bounce level from S&P 2,600-2,590.S&P - 2,660 was sliced through but the primary...

Thomas Schroeder

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Tech and Trade Risks, China PMI, FTSE on Saudi, SARB, Good Friday

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Short NKY and USD-JPY. Still short US tech...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

This Index Will Make or Break the Global Cycle Post FOMC

We spend a good deal of time pouring over patterns in the S&P and top sectors but tend to not view the Dow Jones as a primary driver but rather...

Thomas Schroeder

U.S. Equity Strategy: Cyclicals Are Leadership, Small-Caps Are Closing the Gap.

In our March Strategy we provide a top down analysis of U.S. equity market drivers, and highlight opportunities within the following Sectors:•...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: Goldman Is Worried About the Effect of a 10-Year Yield at 4.5%; How About 5.3%?

A new secular bond bear market began in July 2016, and was confirmed that December, as a 9-year bull market Termination pattern broke upwards at...

Peter Beuttell