Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the SPX is going through a 1-to 4-month consolidation phase.</li>
<li>It is possible the low for this consolidation has been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100-5191 that we discussed two weeks ago (7/30/24 Compass)</li>
<li>In terms of upside, the SPX could test its YTD highs or make a marginal new high, or could also see it roll over at the 5400 or 5585 resistances.</li>
</ul>


We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the SPX is going through a 1-to 4-month consolidation phase.
It is possible the low for this consolidation has been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100-5191 that we discussed two weeks ago (7/30/24 Compass)
In terms of upside, the SPX could test its YTD highs or make a marginal new high, or could also see it roll over at the 5400 or 5585 resistances.


Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. </li>
<li>Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  </li>
<li>The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. </li>
</ul>


The presidential race has tightened since VP Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket. Harris leads popular vote, but Trump is ahead in the Electoral College. 
Both VP candidates are ideological clones of the presidential candidates. Unless Harris moves to the centre at her convention and debates, Trump's Electoral College lead is likely to persist.  
The energized Democratic base is likely to ensure that either House, Senate or both will be won by Democrats. Divided government is positive for markets, limiting scope for policy extremism. 


US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have successfully navigated our macro portfolio through yet another week of high volatility, especially following Monday’s (in hindsight) outlier event.</li>
<li>Risk sentiment has turned, and recession fears are muted for now.</li>
<li>With position squaring largely completed, equities have regained momentum.</li>
</ul>


We have successfully navigated our macro portfolio through yet another week of high volatility, especially following Monday’s (in hindsight) outlier event.
Risk sentiment has turned, and recession fears are muted for now.
With position squaring largely completed, equities have regained momentum.


Portfolio Watch: We Dare to Say the Bottom Is In for Risk Assets

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Financial markets took fright from the weaker than expected July <em>Employment Situation</em> report. Fed policy remains data-dependent and the Fed will wait for more data to formulate an appropriate response.</li>
<li>BoJ policy has seemingly broken the attraction of the yen carry trade, beneficial for US equities in 2024. Financial market volatility has forced the BoJ to postpone policy rate increases. </li>
<li>The case for an emergency Fed policy rate cut remains unconvincing, particularly when current circumstances are compared to other instances of inter-meeting policy rate reductions back in 2020 and 2001.</li>
</ul>


Financial markets took fright from the weaker than expected July Employment Situation report. Fed policy remains data-dependent and the Fed will wait for more data to formulate an appropriate response.
BoJ policy has seemingly broken the attraction of the yen carry trade, beneficial for US equities in 2024. Financial market volatility has forced the BoJ to postpone policy rate increases. 
The case for an emergency Fed policy rate cut remains unconvincing, particularly when current circumstances are compared to other instances of inter-meeting policy rate reductions back in 2020 and 2001.


Data Dependent Fed Unfazed by Fallout from Unwinding Carry Trades

<ul><li>Welcome to our US Inflation Watch.</li><li>We see US CPI inflation coming in at 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core inflation at firm  3.1% YoY and 4 bps hotter than headline on the month.</li><li>This is clearly below the early consensus, even if a few contributors dare to forecast even lower inflation levels than us.</li></ul>

Welcome to our US Inflation Watch.We see US CPI inflation coming in at 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core inflation at firm  3.1% YoY and 4 bps hotter than headline on the month.This is clearly below the early consensus, even if a few contributors dare to forecast even lower inflation levels than us.

US Inflation Watch: Disinflation scare or relief?

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

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US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...

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We have successfully navigated our macro portfolio through yet another week of high volatility, especially following Monday’s (in hindsight)...

Steno Research

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Weaker July labour market data and the unwinding of two carry trades produced elevated financial market volatility. Fed policy remains data...

DeSaque Macro Research

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Welcome to our US Inflation Watch. We see US CPI inflation coming in at 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core inflation at firm 3.1% YoY and 4 bps...

Steno Research

Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

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US Presidential Race Narrows, but Trump Still Likely to Win Without Congress Control

​Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...

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Portfolio Watch: We Dare to Say the Bottom Is In for Risk Assets

We have successfully navigated our macro portfolio through yet another week of high volatility, especially following Monday’s (in hindsight)...

Steno Research

Data Dependent Fed Unfazed by Fallout from Unwinding Carry Trades

Weaker July labour market data and the unwinding of two carry trades produced elevated financial market volatility. Fed policy remains data...

DeSaque Macro Research

US Inflation Watch: Disinflation scare or relief?

Welcome to our US Inflation Watch. We see US CPI inflation coming in at 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core inflation at firm 3.1% YoY and 4 bps...

Steno Research

Presidential race tightens as Harris leads popular vote but Trump ahead in Electoral College. Divided government likely with energized Democratic...