House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way.</li><li><p>Most of the equity indices are negative YTD, and after the big fall in the first 3 weeks of the year, the reaction has been weak. Indeed many indices have been flat in the last weeks.</p></li><li><p>Of course markets are now focused on 3 main themes: earnings, inflation and geopolitics.</p></li></ul>

After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way.Most of the equity indices are negative YTD, and after the big fall in the first 3 weeks of the year, the reaction has been weak. Indeed many indices have been flat in the last weeks.Of course markets are now focused on 3 main themes: earnings, inflation and geopolitics.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>SPX rally call to 4,600 was in line and turned south 15 points shy of this resistance. A fresh bounce cycle is warming that will set up a bigger short.</li>
<li>4,465 first res to watch for an early fade with 4,510 the bigger level to cap/sell. 4,600 is now firm resistance.</li>
<li>RTY was added to our short lies at 2,100. NDX remains a top short pick.</li>
</ul>


SPX rally call to 4,600 was in line and turned south 15 points shy of this resistance. A fresh bounce cycle is warming that will set up a bigger short.
4,465 first res to watch for an early fade with 4,510 the bigger level to cap/sell. 4,600 is now firm resistance.
RTY was added to our short lies at 2,100. NDX remains a top short pick.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


<ul>
<li>Touted buying risk on the Jan 24/25 lows and re loading near the Feb 4/6 expected secondary cycle low for a rise into Feb 16th if not month end.</li>
<li>SPX 4,600 resistance call to induce a pullback with 4,440 buy support (buy the Feb 4/6 dip) for a test on 4,600/30. </li>
<li>SPX meeting 4,600 so quickly does favor a bigger risk on push into late Feb. NDX rise will be used to build a higher conviction short near 15,500.</li>
</ul>


Touted buying risk on the Jan 24/25 lows and re loading near the Feb 4/6 expected secondary cycle low for a rise into Feb 16th if not month end.
SPX 4,600 resistance call to induce a pullback with 4,440 buy support (buy the Feb 4/6 dip) for a test on 4,600/30. 
SPX meeting 4,600 so quickly does favor a bigger risk on push into late Feb. NDX rise will be used to build a higher conviction short near 15,500.


Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

<ul>
<li>Elevated inflation makes it impossible for the Fed to ease to alleviate turbulence in the equity market. Equity valuations have borne the brunt of the latest taper tantrum.</li>
<li>Current economic conditions are similar to 1984 when the Fed commenced a short tightening cycle by initially raising the federal funds rate by 50 basis points .</li>
<li>The flattening yield curve raises concerns about potential inversion that has presaged recessions. Access to credit in the banking system has not tightened, despite fears of higher future funding costs.    </li>
</ul>


Elevated inflation makes it impossible for the Fed to ease to alleviate turbulence in the equity market. Equity valuations have borne the brunt of the latest taper tantrum.
Current economic conditions are similar to 1984 when the Fed commenced a short tightening cycle by initially raising the federal funds rate by 50 basis points .
The flattening yield curve raises concerns about potential inversion that has presaged recessions. Access to credit in the banking system has not tightened, despite fears of higher future funding costs.    


Latest Taper Tantrum Primarily Hits Equity Valuations as Bank Lending Remains Supportive for Growth

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

A frustrating month for markets

After almost 2 years of rising stock prices, and falling yields, 2022 started in a frustrating way. Most of the equity indices are negative YTD,...

Market Radar

SPX 4,600 Cap Did the Trick

SPX rally call to 4,600 was in line and turned south 15 points shy of this resistance. A fresh bounce cycle is warming that will set up a bigger...

Thomas Schroeder

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

SPX Secondary Low and Feb Rally Hurdle

Touted buying risk on the Jan 24/25 lows and re loading near the Feb 4/6 expected secondary cycle low for a rise into Feb 16th if not month end.

Thomas Schroeder

Latest Taper Tantrum Primarily Hits Equity Valuations as Bank Lending Remains Supportive for Growth

Equity valuations bore the brunt of concerns about Fed balance sheet shrinkage. Access to credit in the banking system has not been tightened...

DeSaque Macro Research