Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.</li>
<li>If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.</li>
<li>On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal</li>
</ul>


We have discussed our expectations for rising rates for quite some time, but the 10-year yield is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance which comes in at 2.80-2.82%.
If there was ever a time for interest rates to move lower, this is where it needs to happen -- and it would be fitting, considering extremely bearish bond sentiment.
On the other hand, if the 10-year Treasury is above 2.82% we see a secular reversal where rising rates would be the new normal


10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index / Technical Analysis

Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index

<ul>
<li>This is a follow up chart of the VIX Index that was shared last week</li>
<li>While we have dipped in the very short term, the underlying pattern warns of a significant rise</li>
<li>Such a development is likely to be seen with a falling S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


This is a follow up chart of the VIX Index that was shared last week
While we have dipped in the very short term, the underlying pattern warns of a significant rise
Such a development is likely to be seen with a falling S&amp;P 500


<ul>
<li>The prices at work on the S&amp;P 500 are warning of further weakness ahead</li>
<li>Short term focus is on 4418 and if that gives way we could be en route towards the 4101 low again over the coming weeks</li>
<li>Overall it is beginning to look as though the rebound over the past 4-6 weeks has been corrective</li>
</ul>


The prices at work on the S&amp;P 500 are warning of further weakness ahead
Short term focus is on 4418 and if that gives way we could be en route towards the 4101 low again over the coming weeks
Overall it is beginning to look as though the rebound over the past 4-6 weeks has been corrective


<ul>
<li>The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions</li>
<li>This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks</li>
<li>As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500</li>
</ul>


The VIX Index has turned up after declining by the same magnitudes as the previous two occasions
This warns of another leg up over the coming days and weeks
As a consequence it is a sign of renewed weakness on the S&amp;P 500


iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.</li>
<li>As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.
As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.
We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

10-Year Treasury Yield Testing 40-Year Resistance; Upgrading Health Care to Overweight

10-year Treas yield $TNX is now testing 40-year downtrend resistance at 2.8-2.82%. If interest rates are to move lower, now would be the time,...

Vermilion Research

VIX Index: The Pullback Before the Rise

The VIX Index is still lining up in a manner that suggests much higher levels thereby indicating a weaker S&P 500 over the medium term - several...

Shyam Devani

S&P Also Looking Vulnerable Again

The price actions and setup on the S&P 500 looks increasingly concerning and a break below 4,418 would only add to the bearish bias.

Shyam Devani

VIX Index Shows Trouble Ahead

The VIX Index is showing signs of moving up again which in turn indicate a decline on the S&P 500 over the coming days and weeks

Shyam Devani

Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Several indexes remain below key resistance, including 4600 on $SPX, $110 on $QQEW, $209 on $IWM, $111 on $IJR, $507 on the $SOX index $SOXX, $73...

Vermilion Research