Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Hyundai Oilbank has officially started the IPO process. It has reportedly sent out an RFP to local and overseas brokerages. The company is expected to pursue a listing on the KOSPI in early 2022.<div class="content-highlight">
After stopping preparations for an IPO in 2019, it again seeks to enter the stock market after more than two years. This is the third challenge since 2012, when the first listing attempt was made.
<ul>
<li>In 2012, the company gave up halfway due to the sharp drop in international oil prices. </li>
<li>In 2017, Hyundai Oilbank was designated as a company subject to accounting supervision. So the IPO was again abandoned midway.</li>
</ul>
</div>In January 2019, Hyundai Oilbank raised an equity investment worth ₩1.37T from Saudi Aramco for a 17% stake, and as a result, officially announced the suspension of the IPO. So, the estimated IPO valuation at this point is about ₩8.1T. The Aramco investment of ₩1.37T for a 17% stake translates into an ₩8.1T valuation.Hyundai Oilbank recorded an operating profit of ₩412.8B in the first quarter of this year, successfully turning to black compared to the previous quarter.

Hyundai Oilbank has officially started the IPO process. It has reportedly sent out an RFP to local and overseas brokerages. The company is expected to pursue a listing on the KOSPI in early 2022.
After stopping preparations for an IPO in 2019, it again seeks to enter the stock market after more than two years. This is the third challenge since 2012, when the first listing attempt was made.

In 2012, the company gave up halfway due to the sharp drop in international oil prices. 
In 2017, Hyundai Oilbank was designated as a company subject to accounting supervision. So the IPO was again abandoned midway.

In January 2019, Hyundai Oilbank raised an equity investment worth ₩1.37T from Saudi Aramco for a 17% stake, and as a result, officially announced the suspension of the IPO. So, the estimated IPO valuation at this point is about ₩8.1T. The Aramco investment of ₩1.37T for a 17% stake translates into an ₩8.1T valuation.Hyundai Oilbank recorded an operating profit of ₩412.8B in the first quarter of this year, successfully turning to black compared to the previous quarter.

KOSE (Long) Vs. HHI Holdings (Short) Pair Trade on Hyundai Oilbank IPO

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

We highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our overall constructive outlook. Last week we noted Europe’s STOXX 500 was on the cusp of a breakout above 4040; we got the breakout. WTI and Brent crude oil also broke above key multi-year resistance at $67 and $70, respectively. The MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes each hit new all-time highs and remain in uptrends. The MSCI Emerging Markets index (EEM-US) bullishly inflected above short-term resistance at $55.35 and RS is reversing the downtrend. These are all bullish signals for global equities, and our constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
NPS has been continuing to sell big in Korea in 2021. Having covered Korea for more than two decades, I do not remember NPS selling like it has been in the past two months. As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for 42 consecutive days. It has been reported that NPS sold nearly 13 trillion won ($11.6 billion) of KOSPI since December 2020. The big selling by the NPS has become one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in 2021. 
As of the end of 2020, the Korean equities accounted for 21.2% of NPS' total portfolio. <a href="https://finance.naver.com/news/news_read.nhn?article_id=0003341623&amp;office_id=020&amp;mode=LSS2D&amp;type=0&amp;section_id=101&amp;section_id2=258&amp;section_id3=&amp;date=20210302&amp;page=3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS'</a> goal is to reduce this to 16.8% of its total portfolio at the end of 2021. That is a big drop. In this case, NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks by the end of 2021, which is nearly twice the amount of Korean stocks that it has sold in the past two months. 
</div>


NPS has been continuing to sell big in Korea in 2021. Having covered Korea for more than two decades, I do not remember NPS selling like it has been in the past two months. As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for 42 consecutive days. It has been reported that NPS sold nearly 13 trillion won ($11.6 billion) of KOSPI since December 2020. The big selling by the NPS has become one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market in 2021. 
As of the end of 2020, the Korean equities accounted for 21.2% of NPS' total portfolio. NPS' goal is to reduce this to 16.8% of its total portfolio at the end of 2021. That is a big drop. In this case, NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks by the end of 2021, which is nearly twice the amount of Korean stocks that it has sold in the past two months. 


NPS Is Selling Big in Korea - Will This Lead to an Underperformance of KOSPI in 2021?

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

South Korea

S-Oil Corporation refines crude oil and sells petroleum and its related products.  The Company mainly focuses on petroleum refining, petrochemical, and lubricant business. S-Oil's major products are gasoline, bunker oil, kerosene, naphtha, lubricants, benzene, toluene, and xylene.

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S Oil Corp (010950 KS)

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

KOSE (Long) Vs. HHI Holdings (Short) Pair Trade on Hyundai Oilbank IPO

Hyundai Oilbank has started the IPO process, likely acting as a discount factor on HHIH's share price. So, from a swing trade perspective, Long...

Sanghyun Park

Major Breakouts For WTI and Brent Crude Oil. Actionable Themes: Energy, Manufacturing, Autos/Parts

Today we highlight several positive developments that have occurred since last week’s Int’l Compass report, all of which continue to support our...

Vermilion Research

NPS Is Selling Big in Korea - Will This Lead to an Underperformance of KOSPI in 2021?

As of 28 February, NPS net sold KOSPI for 42 consecutive days. NPS could sell an additional 24 trillion won ($21.4 billion) worth of Korean stocks...

Douglas Kim

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

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