Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.</li>
<li>The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. </li>
<li>This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.
The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. 
This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.


Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.</li>
<li>Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.</li>
<li>Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) experienced a 45% leap in its share price since its last earnings announcement, primarily fueled by a positive OP surprise of nearly ¥3.0bn.
Our analysis indicates the potential for another big earnings beat in FQ4, primarily because the consensus remains conservative in its cost assumptions.
Additionally, we anticipate that the company will provide FY24 OP guidance in the range of ¥45-50bn. This would constitute a significant upside surprise compared to the current FY24 consensus.


Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> offers products covering all aspects of daily life.</li>
<li>For FY08/23, Ryohin Keikaku reported consolidated operating revenue of JPY581.4bn , operating profit of JPY33.1bn, recurring profit of JPY36.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY22.1bn.</li>
<li>The company's full-year FY08/24 forecast calls for operating revenue of JPY640.0bn, operating profit of JPY48.0bn, recurring profit of JPY46.0bn and net income attributable to shareholders of the parent of JPY33.3bn.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) offers products covering all aspects of daily life.
For FY08/23, Ryohin Keikaku reported consolidated operating revenue of JPY581.4bn , operating profit of JPY33.1bn, recurring profit of JPY36.2bn, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of JPY22.1bn.
The company's full-year FY08/24 forecast calls for operating revenue of JPY640.0bn, operating profit of JPY48.0bn, recurring profit of JPY46.0bn and net income attributable to shareholders of the parent of JPY33.3bn.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> capping, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance ends end January. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus.
Depending on the changes, passives trackers will need to buy 2.4-22.5x ADV (10-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.5-42.5x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping, Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) increase in PAF, a big funding trade, and potentially new stocks being added in two-steps. 


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> will announce FQ4 results on October 13th; we expect earnings to beat consensus by ¥2-3bn, potentially boosting stock performance.</li>
<li>FY24 OP guidance at around ¥55bn could be a catalyst for significant upside potential in the short term.</li>
<li>The current share price of approximately ¥1,800 per share supports an annual OP of roughly ¥30bn, indicating nearly 100% upside potential with FY24 guidance.</li>
</ul>



Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) will announce FQ4 results on October 13th; we expect earnings to beat consensus by ¥2-3bn, potentially boosting stock performance.
FY24 OP guidance at around ¥55bn could be a catalyst for significant upside potential in the short term.
The current share price of approximately ¥1,800 per share supports an annual OP of roughly ¥30bn, indicating nearly 100% upside potential with FY24 guidance.


Ryohin Keikaku: Expecting FY24 OP Guidance of ¥55.0bn

Japan

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

Seria Co., Ltd. operates 100 yen chain stores nationwide.   The Company also operates franchise business.  Seria's main product line includes household goods and snacks.

IZUMI CO., LTD. operates shopping centers mainly in the Chugoku area, selling food products, clothing, and household utensils.  The Company also operates real estate business and credit card services.

Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd. is a holding company established through a merger of Mitsukoshi and Isetan. The group operates department stores nationwide, selling clothing, foods, household goods, cosmetics and general merchandise.

FUJI CO., LTD. operates shopping center chain mainly in the Shikoku and the Chugoku regions.  The Company mainly sells foodstuffs, clothing, and sundry goods.  Fuji also operates home entertainment stores, BACH, which sells books, CDs, videos, and video games.  The Company also operates sports fitness centers. The Company provides credit card service.

Kintetsu Department Store Co., Ltd. operates department stores mainly in Osaka, Nara, Kyoto, and other Kansai prefectures. The Company sells clothing, foods, as well as other household items. Kintetsu Department Store also operates restaurants.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is a holding company for companies and trusts in a third party franchise agreement. The franchises operate stores under the name "Harvey Norman Discounts," selling home wares and electrical goods. The Company also provides advisory and advertising to the franchises. In addition, the Company provides consumer finance and has property investments.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of retail stores that offers brand name products at discounted and closeout prices. The Company provides products, including housewares, food, books and stationery, bed and bath, floor coverings, toys, and hardware.

Ollie'S Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI US)

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion retailer of apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children.  The Company operates through multiple retail channels, discount stores, boutiques, catalogs, and on the Internet. Nordstrom, Inc. also offers, through a subsidiary, private label card credit and debit cards.

B&M European Value Retail S.A. operates as a general merchandise discount retailer. The Company sells products ranging electronics to home goods.

Canadian Tire Corporation Limited is a family of businesses that includes a retail segment, a financial services division and CT REIT. The Company's retail business provides Canadians with products for life in Canada across its living, playing, fixing, automotive and seasonal categories. Canadian Tire Corporation's  retail products include casual, industrial and active wear.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

Central Retail Corp Ltd operates general merchandise stores. The Company offers electronics, sports, stationery, home improvement, and office products. Central Retail serves customers in Thailand.

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ryohin Keikaku (7453): Q1 FY08/24 Update

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) offers a wide range of daily life products, with strong financial performance and positive forecast for FY08/24.

Shared Research

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

Ryohin Keikaku: Expecting FY24 OP Guidance of ¥55.0bn

Ryohin Keikaku will announce FQ4 results on October 13th; we expect earnings to beat consensus by ¥2-3bn, potentially boosting stock performance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

​Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku: Big Moves Ahead with Strong FY24 Guidance

​Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ryohin Keikaku (7453): Q1 FY08/24 Update

​Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) offers a wide range of daily life products, with strong financial performance and positive forecast for FY08/24.

Shared Research

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2024): Update on Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There could be 3 changes at the March rebal. Socionext moves up the add list following the stock split. Fast Retailing is back above 11% index...

Brian Freitas

Ryohin Keikaku: Expecting FY24 OP Guidance of ¥55.0bn

Ryohin Keikaku will announce FQ4 results on October 13th; we expect earnings to beat consensus by ¥2-3bn, potentially boosting stock performance.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Ryohin Keikaku's stock surged 45% after an earnings surprise. Anticipating another strong quarter and potentially higher FY24 guidance.

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) offers a wide range of daily life products, with strong financial performance and positive forecast for FY08/24.