Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Growth in the Japanese home interiors and furniture markets is set to continue long-term. </li>
<li>At present, just a handful of brands have any major presence led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a> which continues to expand market share.</li>
<li>With multiple formats, Nitori looks set to continue to dominate but faces competition from unlikely quarters, especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yamada-denki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:641:1" rel="noopener">Yamada Denki (9831 JP).</a>
</li>
</ul>


Growth in the Japanese home interiors and furniture markets is set to continue long-term. 
At present, just a handful of brands have any major presence led by Nitori Holdings (9843 JP) which continues to expand market share.
With multiple formats, Nitori looks set to continue to dominate but faces competition from unlikely quarters, especially Yamada Denki (9831 JP).



Interiors Long-Term Growth in Japan a Plus for Nitori

<ul>
<li>Muji has been trying to both reduce prices and consumer perception of its price positioning in the past few years, both at home and abroad. </li>
<li>This has been hard but a new ¥500 chain will make it clear that Muji is shifting positioning.</li>
<li>Muji will now even compete with discount and fixed price chains across food, home and clothing and the new price format will be much better suited to markets like China.</li>
</ul>


Muji has been trying to both reduce prices and consumer perception of its price positioning in the past few years, both at home and abroad. 
This has been hard but a new ¥500 chain will make it clear that Muji is shifting positioning.
Muji will now even compete with discount and fixed price chains across food, home and clothing and the new price format will be much better suited to markets like China.


Muji 500: The Missing Key to Plans for 2,000 Stores

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Our analysis points to a significant earnings beat for Ryohin Keikaku, whose share price is down more than 50%-YTD and is currently hugging the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.</li>
<li>With freight and logistics down more than 50% since June 2022, we are expecting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a>’s gross margin to return to around 49-50%.</li>
<li>In addition, the company’s monthly sales growth figures indicate that FQ4 revenue should be around ¥114.6bn compared to ¥105.8bn for consensus.</li>
</ul>


Our analysis points to a significant earnings beat for Ryohin Keikaku, whose share price is down more than 50%-YTD and is currently hugging the bottom-end of the long-term trend channel.
With freight and logistics down more than 50% since June 2022, we are expecting Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)’s gross margin to return to around 49-50%.
In addition, the company’s monthly sales growth figures indicate that FQ4 revenue should be around ¥114.6bn compared to ¥105.8bn for consensus.


Ryohin Keikaku: A Beat Can Turn Around Price Performance

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku (Muji) slashed its earnings guidance for FY8/22 by 32%</li>
<li>The retailer is facing a number of headwinds, only some of which are industry wide</li>
<li>We remain bearish as Muji lacks the pricing power to push through higher input costs</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku (Muji) slashed its earnings guidance for FY8/22 by 32%
The retailer is facing a number of headwinds, only some of which are industry wide
We remain bearish as Muji lacks the pricing power to push through higher input costs


Ryohin Keikaku (7453) | Oops Something Went Wrong

<ul>
<li>Muji's historically low valuations are no reason to get excited. We think normalisation is still several quarters out</li>
<li>China growth was the key valuation driver, but Muji faces continued headwinds from sporadic lockdowns and weak foot traffic</li>
<li>Rising costs are new problem for Muji in the domestic market. The company will remain behind the curve on price hikes, leading to weaker margins</li>
</ul>


Muji's historically low valuations are no reason to get excited. We think normalisation is still several quarters out
China growth was the key valuation driver, but Muji faces continued headwinds from sporadic lockdowns and weak foot traffic
Rising costs are new problem for Muji in the domestic market. The company will remain behind the curve on price hikes, leading to weaker margins


Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) | No Time to Bargain Hunt

Japan

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

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Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)

Interiors Long-Term Growth in Japan a Plus for Nitori

Japan's interiors consumption has been one of the few categories to grow consistently and will continue to grow steadily as Japanese appetite for...

Michael Causton

Muji 500: The Missing Key to Plans for 2,000 Stores

Muji has been suffering of late but a new format focusing on prices below ¥500 could solve multiple problems both at home and overseas.

Michael Causton

Ryohin Keikaku: A Beat Can Turn Around Price Performance

Our analysis points to a substantial earnings beat for Ryohin Keikaku, whose share price is down more than 50%-YTD and is currently hugging the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Ryohin Keikaku (7453) | Oops Something Went Wrong

Ryohin Keikaku may have superficially low valuations. However, sales headwinds in China, and rising costs and lack of pricing power domestically...

Mark Chadwick

Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) | No Time to Bargain Hunt

Muji is likely to struggle with sales growth, profit margins, and asset efficiency, resulting in further share price derating ahead

Mark Chadwick

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