Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. </li>
<li>​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.</li>
<li>​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.</li>
</ul>


Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. 
​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.
​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.


<ul>
<li>Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.</li>
<li>​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.</li>
<li>Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.</li>
</ul>


Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.


European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

<ul>
<li>EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.</li>
<li>However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.</li>
<li>Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.</li>
</ul>


EasyJet on track for record summer performance, helped by lower fuel prices.
However pricing growth moderating and growth itself may be fizzling out.
Winter losses remain highly elevated and we publish new analysis identifying the root causes.


EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

<ul>
<li>Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.</li>
<li>Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.</li>
<li>Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Given events in the Middle East and associated risks for oil prices, we publish a quick guide to the 2024 earnings sensitivity to fuel price increases for the European airlines.
Rising fuel prices pose starkest risk to Lufthansa earnings, and it has just profit warned due to strike costs, which leave it needing a record 2H to meet guidance.
Ryanair is comfortably most insulated given margin and balance sheet strength.


European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

<ul>
<li>Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.</li>
<li>This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.</li>
<li>We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.</li>
</ul>


Summer pricing data suggests growth yoy for European short haul carriers.
This prompts us to raise our easyJet PBT forecast 11% to £676m for FY24.
We continue to see underperforming Wizz Air as the carrier with greatest opportunity to improve perception towards it by executing well in summer 2024.


European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Ireland

Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe.

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Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

EasyJet – Lower Pricing and Fuel Costs Leave Earnings Forecasts Intact – Winter Losses Revisited

Deep dive on easyJet winter losses and inflation management as pricing growth slows into peak summer months. Record summer in store but more...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines - Assessing Fuel Price Risk to Earnings

Detailed historical and forward looking analysis on the European airline sector's ability to manage fuel price headwinds/volatility.

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Increasing Confidence in LCC Summer Pricing and Profitability

Deep dive on European low cost carrier fare developments into summer 2024 and ramifications for profitability development via detailed earnings...

Neil Glynn

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