Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

<ul>
<li>Ryanair trimmed its FY24 (March 2024) net income guidance from €1,850m-€2,050m to €1,850m-€1,950m. We cut our forecast 4% to €1,944m.</li>
<li>Ryanair guidance on summer pricing is encouraging. It sees fares up low-single digit % yoy at this point but expects an improvement as we near the summer.</li>
<li>This commentary follows bullish pricing updates from easyJet, Wizz Air on short haul as well as the US carriers on Transatlantic routes, suggesting strong 2024 pricing on European routes.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair trimmed its FY24 (March 2024) net income guidance from €1,850m-€2,050m to €1,850m-€1,950m. We cut our forecast 4% to €1,944m.
Ryanair guidance on summer pricing is encouraging. It sees fares up low-single digit % yoy at this point but expects an improvement as we near the summer.
This commentary follows bullish pricing updates from easyJet, Wizz Air on short haul as well as the US carriers on Transatlantic routes, suggesting strong 2024 pricing on European routes.


Ryanair - Further Corroboration of Strong Summer Prospects

<ul>
<li>We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.</li>
<li>We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic</li>
<li>This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.</li>
</ul>


We update forecasts for the European airline sector, highlighting it will be difficult for most carriers to grow earnings in 2023.
We publish detailed earnings bridges highlighting the damage to full year earnings from structural damage to 1Q results due to inflationary pressure and the loss of corporate traffic
This also suggests opportunities for the sector to address winter woes to supplement strong summer performances.


European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  </li>
<li>The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   </li>
<li>These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)</li>
</ul>


Alaska Air Flight 1282 had an in-flight blowout of its mid-aft door and interior sidewall; the aircraft returned and landed safely, and there were no injuries or fatalities  
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a temporary grounding of the affected aircraft model, and we think other countries will follow suit soon   
These stocks will likely be under shorts attack on Monday: Boeing (BA US), Alaska Air (ALK US), Ryanair (RYA ID) and United Airlines (UAL US)


Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Ireland

Ryanair Holdings plc provides low fare passenger airline services to destinations in Europe.

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Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Further Corroboration of Strong Summer Prospects

Detailed analysis of Ryanair earnings growth prospects in FY25 to March 2025, and further corroboration of our expectation of strong fares in...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Further Corroboration of Strong Summer Prospects

Detailed analysis of Ryanair earnings growth prospects in FY25 to March 2025, and further corroboration of our expectation of strong fares in...

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – The Ravages of Increased Earnings Seasonality

Deep dive into winter loss-making for the European airline sector, with structural changes due to corporate traffic loss and inflation. These...

Neil Glynn

Boeing 737 MAX 9 and MAX-8200 Grounded: Implications And Opportunities

​Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...

Mohshin Aziz

Flight 1282 experienced a mid-air blowout but landed safely. The FAA has grounded the Boeing 737 MAX 9, potentially impacting stocks of Boeing,...