Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.</li><li>The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).</li><li>The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.</li></ul>

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

<ul><li>The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.</li><li>It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.</li><li>Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?</li></ul>

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow.It almost looked like people forgot about risks, but positioning data has turned a bit at the end of December / start of January, which hints at a risk aversion comeback.Could 2024 be the year when asset prices are no longer determined based on interest rates alone?

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?

The latter half of 2023 was all about the soft (perfect) landing narrative, which made markets party like there was no tomorrow. It almost looked...

Steno Research