Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.</li><li>On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.</li><li>When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense</li></ul>

The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.</li>
<li>Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of April weakness/volatility</li>
<li>We outline key pivotal levels in NDX and RTY that set the stage for a fresh down cycle.</li>
</ul>


Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.
Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of April weakness/volatility
We outline key pivotal levels in NDX and RTY that set the stage for a fresh down cycle.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.</li>
<li>We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


As we noted last week, $209 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now.
We would like the see a break above $209 on the IWM in order to have a sustainable new bull market.
4590-4600 is a significant resistance level on the S&amp;P 500 we are watching; if bears fail to show up there, next up would likely be a test of all-time highs.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

<ul>
<li>US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).</li>
<li>Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.</li>
<li>RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.</li>
</ul>


US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally target).
Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of early April weakness/volatility.
RTY a top short under 2,100 and DJI to build a short toward 35k. Underperform makes a good case to short. NDX 15,100 ideal sell zone.


Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.</li>
<li>The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not <em>just</em> Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.
Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.
The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.


Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

‘‘There are no gurus. There are only cycles.’’ Michael Gayed The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

SPX 4,580 Pivotal Ahead of Weak April

Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.

Thomas Schroeder

Russell 2000 (IWM) Still Testing $209 Resistance: Actionable Groups: Insurance, Shipping, Utilities

$209 on the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is arguably the most significant resistance level of all right now, and we would like the see a break above $209 in...

Vermilion Research

US Equity Risk/Reward Turning Negative

US breadth remains a challenge as we move into a more bearish April cycle. SPX risk to reward is less favorable above 4,500 (March ideal rally...

Thomas Schroeder

Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We are seeing encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites, including improvement within the Discretionary, Transports, and Materials...

Vermilion Research