House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.</li>
<li>Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.</li>
<li>Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.</li>
</ul>


Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of months.
Russell 2000 index did nothing in the last 15 months. For one year it traded in a rectangle, than it broke to the downside, a clear bearish signal.
Semis is one of the hottest sector of the moment, as the chip demand increased heavily in the last two years.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>Our base case called for a weak US first half of March, low  March 15/16 to trade risk into end of March peak, raised short bets for a weaker April.</li>
<li>US short focus - Russell 2000's bearish a-b-c flat pattern to break lower. NDX met our 15,200 ideal short zone with a fresh underperform phase due in April.</li>
<li>RTY broke 2,040 support while the NDX tested the key 14,400 line in the sand. SPX 4,470  C wave or deeper decline line is under pressure (monitor).</li>
</ul>


Our base case called for a weak US first half of March, low  March 15/16 to trade risk into end of March peak, raised short bets for a weaker April.
US short focus - Russell 2000's bearish a-b-c flat pattern to break lower. NDX met our 15,200 ideal short zone with a fresh underperform phase due in April.
RTY broke 2,040 support while the NDX tested the key 14,400 line in the sand. SPX 4,470  C wave or deeper decline line is under pressure (monitor).


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.</li>
<li>As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.</li>
<li>We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


The bifurcation between large-cap growth and small-caps that we discussed last week has continued, where small-caps have generally not been participating in the rally.
As we said last week, this bifurcation can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market.
We need to see the Russell 2000 (IWM) stay above $209 in order to have confidence that the bottom is in. Meanwhile, stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.</li><li>On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.</li><li>When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense</li></ul>

The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR in reverse : the flow of credit reaching the private sector continues to materially slow down , as indicated by my G5 Credit Impulse metric.On top of it, inflation is roaring its ugly head and Central Bankers are committed to turning monetary policy into explicitly restrictive territory as fast as possible.When the flow of credit slows down and policymakers double down by pushing monetary policy into restrictive territory, you don’t play offense with your portfolio. You play defense

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

<ul>
<li>Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.</li>
<li>Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of April weakness/volatility</li>
<li>We outline key pivotal levels in NDX and RTY that set the stage for a fresh down cycle.</li>
</ul>


Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.
Cycle: Call for more bullish cycle from March 16 (bottom on the 15th) into the 22nd, then expect a dip/rally into late March ahead of April weakness/volatility
We outline key pivotal levels in NDX and RTY that set the stage for a fresh down cycle.


United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Charts to Watch.

Nasdaq 100 is trading below the 200-day MA since mid-January. Now the index is trying to go back above the MA for the second time in a couple of...

Market Radar

RTY and NDX Top US Shorts

Our base case called for a weak US first half of March, low March 15/16 to trade risk into end of March peak, raised short bets for a weaker April.

Thomas Schroeder

Bifurcation Continues; Banks, Semiconductors, Small-Caps, Homebuilders Remain Concerns

Several indexes remain below key resistance, including 4600 on $SPX, $110 on $QQEW, $209 on $IWM, $111 on $IJR, $507 on the $SOX index $SOXX, $73...

Vermilion Research

Has Your Portfolio Realized That The Money Printer is Out of Order?

‘‘There are no gurus. There are only cycles.’’ Michael Gayed The money printer is out of order in 2022. Actually, we are even looking at BRRRR...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

SPX 4,580 Pivotal Ahead of Weak April

Risk to reward in the US is less favorable above 4,500/600. Preferred shorts are in Europe and weaker parts of Asia. SPX 4,580 is pivotal near term.

Thomas Schroeder