Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.</li><li>The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.</li><li>Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.</li></ul>

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party.The first destination for the flying journalist class is the Johannesburg summit, which has not only cast the BRIC nations into the spotlight but has also introduced a rejuvenated composition of member states.Ambitious assertions regarding unity, economic integration, and strategic cooperation have taken center stage, and the customary media channels appear to be embracing these prospects with an air of uncritical acceptance.

EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.</li><li>First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.</li><li>It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

<ul>
<li>We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour.</li>
<li>The right wing provocateur and nutjob Rasmus Paludan started the trend before he stood for the Danish Election in 2019 and since took his activites across the Sound to Sweden.</li>
<li>The burning of the Quran is obviously a huge affront to the global muslim population and was a major roadblock for Sweden’s entry into NATO.</li>
</ul>


We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour.
The right wing provocateur and nutjob Rasmus Paludan started the trend before he stood for the Danish Election in 2019 and since took his activites across the Sound to Sweden.
The burning of the Quran is obviously a huge affront to the global muslim population and was a major roadblock for Sweden’s entry into NATO.


Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

<ul><li>The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dips</li><li>Much of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last year</li><li>Confidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower</li></ul>

The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra cut through and markets switched to bear market behaviour of selling rallies and not buying dipsMuch of this we believe has been associated with leveraged structures unwinding, combined with fund redemptions, especially in tech, reversing the ‘upside crash’ of last yearConfidence is picking up slightly, but the Fed is key, in particular the extent to which it actively want the markets lower

Russia

The Russian ruble is the official currency of The Russian Federation. 

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EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg

During an otherwise uneventful week, the International Finance correspondents are having a party. The first destination for the flying journalist...

Steno Research

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and...

Steno Research

Great Game: Book burnings and Ukrainian peace talks

We begin close to our home in Denmark, where the phenomenon of Quran burnings is once again the topic of the hour. The right wing...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

June Market Thinking

Slightly More Confident The market fall this year has been steady and relentless rather than a panic crash, and last month the Sell in May mantra...

Mark Tinker

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