European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

International Distributions Services / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.</li>
<li>IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.</li>
<li>A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.</li>
</ul>


Approval and Safeguards: The UK government approved EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with legally binding commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters, tax residence, and universal service obligations.
IDS faces declining mail volumes, delivery fines, and the need for operational reforms; EP Group aims to revitalize the company leveraging expertise in energy and logistics sectors.
A done deal, in my view. The acquisition is expected to close in Q1 2025.


<ul>
<li>On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a> agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.</li>
<li>The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).</li>
<li>Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.</li>
</ul>


On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million takeover offer (73% premium) from EP Group.
The IDS board has obtained legally binding guarantees to safeguard customers, employees, and stakeholders, including support from Labour Party (likely winner of next UK general elections).
Investors remain uncertain about the deal's success, given a gross spread of 9.46%, although much of this may be attributed to the anticipated delay in receiving funds. Long at 335p.


EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

<ul>
<li>The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-distributions-services-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22115:1" rel="noopener">International Distributions Services (IDS LN)</a>  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.</li>
<li>The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.</li>
<li>The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.</li>
</ul>


The UK Chancellor stated that any bid for International Distributions Services (IDS LN)  (Royal Mail owner) would be thoroughly evaluated for national security considerations to prevent any risks to essential infrastructure.
The Board is "minded to accept" the improved 370p takeover proposal (4.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA) from Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky's EP Group, should a formal bid is made.
The improved proposal seems fair. GLS is profitable, while Royal Mail aims break-even by March2025e. Concerns about potential developments post-offer pose a potential political issue. Gross spread is 13.5%.


EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The new article on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. </li>
<li>Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ubtech-robotics-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36469:1" rel="noopener">UBTech Robotics (9880 HK)</a> will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.</li>
</ul>


The new article on Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) from TV Tokyo is causing a dip on top of last week's weakness. This is a dip to buy.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK)'s Offer is now open for tendering. Ignore the rumours. Zhang Wei will tender. Expect payment before Chinese New Year. 
Accounting solely for the pre-IPO investors, 164.6m shares (US$1.9bn) in UBTech Robotics (9880 HK) will be unlocked, ~39.2% of the firm’s total shares outstanding, and 91 days of three-month ADV.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS takeover by Křetínský • Sif Holding | production not in danger despite Moselle blockage</li></ul>

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS takeover by Křetínský • Sif Holding | production not in danger despite Moselle blockage

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

United Kingdom

International Distributions Services plc provides postal and delivery services. The Company offers letter and parcel delivery services. International Distributions Services serves consumers, sole traders, SMEs, large businesses, and access operators worldwide.

International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

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International Distributions Services (IDS LN)

Green Light from British Government

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS...

The IDEA!

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Green Light from British Government

​UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/International Distribution Services: Agreed Offer

On 29 May, the last day of the extended PUSU deadline, Royal Mail owner International Distributions Services (IDS LN) agreed to a £3,568 million...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EP Group/IDS (Royal Mail): Politically Sensitive

​The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week In Event SPACE: Seven & I, CPMC, UBTech Robotics, Macromill, 2024 Best-Of

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

What's News in Amsterdam - 16 December (KPN | PostNL / IDS | Sif Holding)

In today's edition: • KPN | fiber revenues continue to grow, partly at the cost of cable and copper • PostNL / IDS | UK government approves IDS...

The IDEA!

UK government approves EP Group's £5.3 billion acquisition of IDS, with commitments to retain Royal Mail's headquarters and service obligations.

The UK Chancellor will thoroughly evaluate any bid for International Distributions Services to prevent risks to essential infrastructure, while...