Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip</li><li>Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better</li><li>Oil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circle</li><li>This week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;</li><li>Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.</li></ul>

KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow tripThings have to get a whole lot worse before they get betterOil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circleThis week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.

MACRO TAKE: In from the Cold of Mother Russia

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<ol><li>Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. </li><li>Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed </li><li>Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. </li></ol>

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment Fund, a $200m closed end fund listed in London run by Qatar Insurance giving you exposure to the Qatar index at a discount to NAV. Returned over 20% last year (dollar pegged) despite oil prices halving, will likely return double digits over the next 7-10 years annually. Buy Iran as soon as it opens, currently under 6x PE with double digit dividends. I believe an Iran deal is likely in the next few months. One of the funds I advise hopes to have an easy to access listed fund to make things easier once SWIFT sanctions are removed Buy oil for delivery in 2 years either direct or through options. You may not make as much as spot, but if I (and more importantly T Boone Pickens) are right, it should offer 20%+ return at the least with minimal downside risk unless someone decides to spend hundreds of billions in exploration or the world economy completely collapses. Buy Brent as the Brent-WTI spread will gap out into the middle of the year on Cushing inventory build due to the contango in the curve. 

Netherlands

Royal Dutch Shell PLC, through subsidiaries, explores for, produces, and refines petroleum.  The Company produces fuels, chemicals, and lubricants. Shell owns and operates gasoline filling stations worldwide.

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Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr) (RDS/A US)

MACRO TAKE: In from the Cold of Mother Russia

KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better Oil back at $100 is...

Kay Van-Petersen

Islam, Terror, Politics and Oil - Part 1

Align yourself with the Qatar government, $200bn in GDP, $200bn in assets for 200,000 civilians who own 96% of the stock market. Qatar Investment...

Emad Mostaque

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