Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

United states Energy / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow trip</li><li>Things have to get a whole lot worse before they get better</li><li>Oil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circle</li><li><p>This week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;</p></li><li><p>Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.</p></li></ul>

KVP highlights key data points from recent subzero Moscow tripThings have to get a whole lot worse before they get betterOil back at $100 is terrible for Russia but great for Putin&rsquo;s circleThis week&rsquo;s Macro Take focuses on my very recent trip to Moscow, whereby I wanted to share the data points and thoughts &ldquo;from the ground&rdquo; with the aim of illuminating a very key component of the global macro puzzle for 2015, which is the Russia piece of the puzzle. If people are way too pessimistic and things are to get better, this could be a great asymmetrical opportunity to load up on some Russian-Ukrainian (Western) Conflict linked exposure. If this is still only the beginning of death through a thousand cuts, then perhaps a total exit, avoidance or shorting strategy is needed.&nbsp;Whilst this piece is long and not one for those of you with the attention span of goldfish, this is on one of the key global geopolitical inflection points with potentially big positive &amp; negative ripples on the current risk-on environment we are seeing.&nbsp; Especially given recent events in Greece/Europe that has sent the Dow &amp; S&amp;P on Friday to new all-time record highs, at 18,140 &amp; 2,110 respectively.

MACRO TAKE: In from the Cold of Mother Russia