Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At 0.3x price to book, PRC property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tomson-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19447:1" rel="noopener">Tomson (258 HK)</a> is cheap. </li>
<li>It is even cheaper when factoring in its net cash worth 90% of the market cap.</li>
<li>And it might continue to trade cheaply if not for the fact the controlling family recently privatised a connected company of Tomson's.</li>
</ul>


At 0.3x price to book, PRC property play Tomson (258 HK) is cheap. 
It is even cheaper when factoring in its net cash worth 90% of the market cap.
And it might continue to trade cheaply if not for the fact the controlling family recently privatised a connected company of Tomson's.


<div>
<p>Back on the 18 January, sometimes property developer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rivera-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16102:1" rel="noopener">Rivera Holdings (281 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0118/2021011801106.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a proposed privatisation by way of a Scheme. Scheme shares will be cancelled in exchange for $0.65/share cash, a 62.5% premium to last close. The Offer Price will not be increased.</p>
</div>
<p>The big twist here is that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0118/2021011801108.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reached a decision</a> the same day as the proposal that Rivera has "<em>failed to carry out a business with a sufficient level of operations and assets of sufficient value</em>". </p>
<p>In a nutshell, if the Scheme does not carry, then shares will be suspended. </p>
<p>So, there's that. Plus it's a low-ball Offer. But really, what are your alternatives?</p>
<p>The Scheme Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0629/2021062901040.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting is the 23 July. Payment is expected on the 30 August.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>


Back on the 18 January, sometimes property developer Rivera Holdings (281 HK) announced a proposed privatisation by way of a Scheme. Scheme shares will be cancelled in exchange for $0.65/share cash, a 62.5% premium to last close. The Offer Price will not be increased.

The big twist here is that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached a decision the same day as the proposal that Rivera has "failed to carry out a business with a sufficient level of operations and assets of sufficient value". 
In a nutshell, if the Scheme does not carry, then shares will be suspended. 
So, there's that. Plus it's a low-ball Offer. But really, what are your alternatives?
The Scheme Doc is now out. The Scheme Meeting is the 23 July. Payment is expected on the 30 August.
More below the fold. 

Rivera (281 HK): Limited Options As Scheme Meeting Firmed


For the month of May, 11 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$7.3bn.



Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.







New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




APN Property Group (APD AU) 
Property
0.2
Scheme
50%


APN Prop (APD AU): Dexus' Done Deal



Boral Ltd (BLD AU) 
Construction
4.8
Off-market
Nil


Boral Ltd (BLD AU): Seven's Nil Premium



Japara Healthcare (JHC AU) 
Healthcare
0.2
Scheme
30%


Japara Healthcare (JHC AU): Here Comes The Calvary


 



Hong Kong




Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) 
Banking
0.2
Scheme
51.2%



Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Takeover Talk As Shares Pop
Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light



 



Japan




Aomori Bank (8342 JP) / Michinoku Bank (8350 JP) 
Bank
0.6
Merger



Aomori Bank &amp; Michinoku Bank Merger - Nothing To Write Home About Yet



EPS Holdings (4282 JP) 
Data/software
0.1
Tender Offer
35.5%


Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS


 Locoguide (4497 JP) / Kufu (4399 JP)

Real estate
0.4
Merger



Locoguide (4497 JP) - Kufu (4399 JP): Merger Is a Done Deal



Maruka Machinery (7594 JP) / Furusato Industries (8087 JP) 
Trading
0.4
Merger



A Complex SmallCap Merger in Japan: Maruka (7594) And Furusato (8087)



Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP) 
Security
0.3
Tender Offer
66.2%


Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)








Malaysia




Can-One Bhd (CAN MK) 
Manufacturing
0.1
MTO
15.8%


Can-One (CAN MK)? Yeoh Can Lah!



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) 
Healthcare
N/A
N/A
N/A


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): More Medicine For Mitsui?


Source: Smartkarma Insights






The above does not include BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU) lobbing a non-binding offer of A$4bn (A$1bn cash, $3bn scrip into BET) for Tabcorp Ltd (TAH AU)'s wagering and media division, and Apollo's prior tilt - Tabcorp (TAH AU): Apollo Shows Its Hand.

Nor does the table include the rumoured merger between  Angang Steel Co Ltd (H) (347 HK) and Bengang Steel (000761 CH) - Amalgamated Steel: Merging Angang &amp; Bengang As, Bs, and Hs.



The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals). This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 (158 deals) and 2019 (145 deals) of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in May of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

No May update




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

1-May: Capital Group announced it has sold its entire 9.7% stake in Bingo Industries (BIN AU).




Crown Resorts (CWN AU) 

10-May: Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets
17-May: Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star
20-May: Crown Resorts Ltd: Blackstone Offer Rejected, Star Offer May Still Not Reflect True Forward Value




Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) 

No May update




Link Administration Holdings (LNK AU) 

27-May: Link Group (LNK AU): KKR Opens The Bidding For PEXA
31-May: Link Admin (LNK AU) Goes IPO Route For PEXA Afterall




Mainstream Group Holdings Ltd (MAI AU) 

2-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): More-Than-Double in Less than 2 Months After Apex Bump
6-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): Bidding War Continues as SS&amp;C Overbids for the 4th Time
14-May: Mainstream (MAI AU): +120% in ~2 Months but Bidding War Continues....




McPherson's Ltd (MCP AU) 

No May update




Mortgage Choice (MOC AU) 

26-Mau FIRB gives its approval



Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)

14-May: Target's Statement and Bidder's Statements were published. Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)'s Board has unanimously recommended shareholders to accept the Offer. 




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

12-May: Think Childcare (TNK AU) has agreed to extend the Exclusivity Period with Busy Bees to 31st May 2021 (vs. original deadline of 14th May). This is still a non-binding deal with an expected completion date to be in 1Q CY22. 




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

1-May: And so it goes - MAFM bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.26.
7-May: MAFM exercises a call option and acquires 16.2% of Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU).
28-May Roc bumps its Offer for Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) to $1.29/share.  And says it will overbid any MAFM counter! 




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 

10-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/Aware's Done Deal
19-May: Vocus Comms (VOC AU): MIRA/​Aware’s Scheme Doc Despatched. EGM On 22 June










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 

1-May: Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Fair
20-May: Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK)'s MGO is now unconditional in all respects. 




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

28-May: China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK): Movement In The Works?




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

7-May: In its monthly update regarding a potential Offer, China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) says there is no update.




China Youzan Limited (8083 HK) 

10-May: China Youzan (8083 HK): Reality Check As Shares Rollover




Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 

4-May: Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) will hold an EGM on the 26 May for shareholders to vote on the sale of the Hong Kong and Taiwan warehouse businesses to Kerry Holdings. 
26-May: At its SGM, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale of its Hong Kong, Taiwan warehouse business to Kerry Holdings.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

No May update




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

No April update




Sichuan Languang Justbon Service Group (2606 HK) 

3-May: Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Offer Now Open - For Up To Four Months










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) 

4-May: The Detailed Public Statement on Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) has been released. The Open Offer is scheduled tentatively to run from 18 June to 1 July, which means it is running Very Tight and the option is worth a bit less than I expected. But that just means there is more gamma. One could get big at the high Rs 1600s area. 




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

4-May: Vedanta Now Caught Up With Peers - A Different Skew Ahead










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) 
No May update



Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
No May update



Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) 
17-May:  Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) has responded to Aslead Strategic Value Fund's Tender Offer with its initial Target Opinion Statement which is "Opinion Withheld." This is because Fuji Kosan hasn't actually done anything yet - two weeks in. They have sent questions to Aslead, and Aslead has five business days to respond. This is slow-walking it. This tender offer is likely to be extended because of that.



Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) 

5-May: Hitachi Metals - Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

13-May: Honshu Chemical (4115) Shareholders Perhaps One Day From a Wrong Price Takeover
16-May:: Honshu Chemical Shareholders Get the Short End of the Stick As The Board Is Ex-Gourd




Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) 

6-May:  Invesco Office OPPOSES Starwood Hostile Offer and Gets a Distinctly Beige Knight
11-May:  Starwood Bumps Terms, Lowers Threshold on Invesco Office
13-May:  Invesco Office's Terrible, Horrible, No Good Very Bad Day... Changes Things
20-May:  Invesco Office's Beige Knight (Deemed Dirty Gray By Markets) Suddenly Looks Brighter and Whiter
23-May:  Starwood Responds to Invesco Office's White Knight Proposal
24-May: Starwood has extended their Tender Offer on Invesco Office J Reit (3298 JP) from the 24th of May to 15th of June after the close of the 24th. They did not raise the price. This is basically the equivalent of Starwood calling Invesco's bluff. They can extend again if they want but they are going to make Invesco come out. They can change price later if they think it necessary.



Japan Asia (3751 JP)
No May update



Sawada Holdings (8699 JP) 

9-May:  Sawada Selldown Was NOT Done - Shareholder Structure Looks Different Now
23-May: Sawada Is A Different Stock Now
31-May:  Be Careful of Expectations on Sawada (8699)




Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) 

14-May: Toshiba – Shareholder Returns Trump Weak Guidance
17-May: Toshiba Results &amp; Shareholder Return - Possibly Big Impact Buyback Coming











New Zealand


Comments 




Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 

No May update











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements)




Procurri Corporation (PROC SP) 

3-May: The Partial Offer has not become unconditional in all respects on the Closing Date and has therefore lapsed










Thailand


Comments




Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) 

No May update




Vinythai Public Co (VNT TB) 

No May update






<p>Last night, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rivera-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16102:1" rel="noopener">Rivera Holdings (281 HK)</a>, an investment holding company, which <em>occasionally</em> dabbles in property development and investment in Hong Kong, Macau, and China, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0118/2021011801106.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a proposed privatisation by way of a Scheme.</p>
<div>Scheme shares will be cancelled in exchange for $0.65/share cash, a 62.5% premium to last close. The Offer Price will not be increased.</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p>The Offeror is an unlisted vehicle owned as to 66% by Hsu Feng, 17% by Albert Tong, and 17% by Charles Tong, all of whom are directors. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>These directors, along with concert parties and rollover shareholders hold 74.99% of shares out, and will be required to abstain from voting at the Scheme Meeting. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Key Scheme conditions include at least 75% of Independent Shares voting FOR &amp; not more than 10% of the votes attached to ALL the Independent Shares AGAINST.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The headcount test does <strong>not</strong> apply as Rivera is Hong Kong incorporated. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Of interest is Rivera's follow-up <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0118/2021011801108.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcemen</a>t in which the Stock Exchange has reached a decision that Rivera has "<em>failed to carry out a business with a sufficient level of operations and assets of sufficient value</em>". </p>
<p>The takeaway is that if the Scheme fails, the Stock Exchange will consider an immediate application of the trading suspension in Rivera.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>

Last night, Rivera Holdings (281 HK), an investment holding company, which occasionally dabbles in property development and investment in Hong Kong, Macau, and China, announced a proposed privatisation by way of a Scheme.
Scheme shares will be cancelled in exchange for $0.65/share cash, a 62.5% premium to last close. The Offer Price will not be increased.


The Offeror is an unlisted vehicle owned as to 66% by Hsu Feng, 17% by Albert Tong, and 17% by Charles Tong, all of whom are directors. 


These directors, along with concert parties and rollover shareholders hold 74.99% of shares out, and will be required to abstain from voting at the Scheme Meeting. 


Key Scheme conditions include at least 75% of Independent Shares voting FOR &amp; not more than 10% of the votes attached to ALL the Independent Shares AGAINST.


The headcount test does not apply as Rivera is Hong Kong incorporated. 


Of interest is Rivera's follow-up announcement in which the Stock Exchange has reached a decision that Rivera has "failed to carry out a business with a sufficient level of operations and assets of sufficient value". 
The takeaway is that if the Scheme fails, the Stock Exchange will consider an immediate application of the trading suspension in Rivera.


More below the fold.


Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…</p>

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Hong Kong

Rivera (Holdings) Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and invests in properties.

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Rivera Holdings (281 HK)

Tomson Group (258 HK): The Next Rivera

The family is active, having already privatised Rivera, which makes Tomson a cleaner entity to take private. Shares are not terribly liquid....

David Blennerhassett

Rivera (281 HK): Limited Options As Scheme Meeting Firmed

This transaction looks done. At $0.62/share - where it is as I type - that's 4.8%/32.7% gross/annualised spread. That's attractive, although this...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A: May 2021 Roundup

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in May was ~41%, with a year-to-date average of ~31% (78 deals).

David Blennerhassett

Rivera (281 HK): Scheme Or Face Delisting

This transaction looks done. I'd buy here - $0.60/share - around an 8.3%/23.6% gross/annualised spread, assuming completion early June. However,...

David Blennerhassett

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

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