Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes 

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23714" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23714:1">Tateru Inc (1435 JP)</a> is a real estate tech company that is Japan's answer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5561" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5561:1">Zillow Group Inc A (ZG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22116" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22116:1">Rightmove PLC (RMV LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/699" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:699:1">REA Group Ltd (REA AU)</a> etc. The company's main business helps potential investors conveniently purchase and develop plots of land for the purpose of earning a rental yield. The company supplies a simple app through which investors can connect to an online concierge who aids them with their decision making. Tateru essentially handles all inconvenient aspects of the…

Tateru Inc (1435 JP) is a real estate tech company that is Japan's answer to Zillow Group Inc A (ZG US), Rightmove PLC (RMV LN), REA Group Ltd (REA AU) etc. The company's main business helps potential investors conveniently purchase and develop plots of land for the purpose of earning a rental yield. The company supplies a simple app through which investors can connect to an online concierge who aids them with their decision making. Tateru essentially handles all inconvenient aspects of the…

Tateru: Is This Really Investors Cloud Nine?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The TPG Consortium (collectively TPG Group, Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan Board [&amp; affiliates]) has <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170515/pdf/43j81hwvsxdhch.pdf" target="_blank">issued</a> a revised indicative proposal for 100% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8996" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8996:1">Fairfax Media Ltd (FXJ AU)</a> at A$1.20/share, less any dividends proposed or paid after 14 May 2017.The revised offer compares to the indicative <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20170508/pdf/43j2zgsf5mgk1q.pdf" target="_blank">proposal</a> last week which involved paying cash for <a href="http://www.domain.com.au/group/" target="_blank">Domain</a> and FXJ's mastheads and leaving FXJ shareholders with regional newspapers, radio ops and other less-than-exciting businesses.  That clunky, inter-conditional proposal appears to have a faced a tepid reception from shareholders which TPG has swiftly (attempted) to remedy with a full cash offer.Below the fold, for subscribers, is a recap of the revised offer and comments on how it may be received.

The TPG Consortium (collectively TPG Group, Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan Board [&amp; affiliates]) has issued a revised indicative proposal for 100% of Fairfax Media Ltd (FXJ AU) at A$1.20/share, less any dividends proposed or paid after 14 May 2017.The revised offer compares to the indicative proposal last week which involved paying cash for Domain and FXJ's mastheads and leaving FXJ shareholders with regional newspapers, radio ops and other less-than-exciting businesses.  That clunky, inter-conditional proposal appears to have a faced a tepid reception from shareholders which TPG has swiftly (attempted) to remedy with a full cash offer.Below the fold, for subscribers, is a recap of the revised offer and comments on how it may be received.

United Kingdom

Rightmove PLC operates a website that lists properties across Britain. The Company also publishes the House Price Index, which shows changes in house prices both annually and monthly and provides a view on the current state of the property market in England and Wales.

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Rightmove PLC (RMV LN)

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium In contrast with the lackluster...

Boost Research

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

Tateru: Is This Really Investors Cloud Nine?

Tateru Inc (1435 JP) is a real estate tech company that is Japan's answer to Zillow Group Inc A (ZG US), Rightmove PLC (RMV LN), REA Group Ltd (REA...

Mio Kato

Fairfax – New Offer for New Media

The TPG Consortium (collectively TPG Group, Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan Board [& affiliates]) has issued a revised indicative proposal for...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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