European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Equity Bottom-Up

Naturgy Energy Group SA / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P has raised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naturgy-energy-group-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21271:1" rel="noopener">Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)</a>'s credit outlook from negative to stable considering that the company may not finally carry out the Gemini spin-off project.</li>
<li>Naturgy's shares do not trade on fundamentals, rather on expectations that IFM tries to increase its stake (free float is just 15%). There's some potential overhang risk though.</li>
<li>IFM has not acquired any significant stake since April, but I would not short the shares as IFM could resume share purchases on an opportunistic basis.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P has raised Naturgy Energy Group SA (NTGY SM)'s credit outlook from negative to stable considering that the company may not finally carry out the Gemini spin-off project.
Naturgy's shares do not trade on fundamentals, rather on expectations that IFM tries to increase its stake (free float is just 15%). There's some potential overhang risk though.
IFM has not acquired any significant stake since April, but I would not short the shares as IFM could resume share purchases on an opportunistic basis.


Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business, Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors

Equity Capital Markets and Advisory Business

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector. The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy. Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors. Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.</li><li>Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.</li><li>Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.</li></ul>

ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d.Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.Seplat Energy (SEPL LN): 1Q23 results – 1Q23 WI production in Nigeria was 51,720 boe/d.

<ul><li>Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella.</li><li>High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours.</li><li>GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578 boe/d.</li></ul>

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN)C: Target price of £0.45 per share: Reaching 2,635 bbl/d without Capella.High cash position – The RCE-5 well flowed 680 bbl/d (340 bbl/d net to Arrow) of oil over the last 24 hours.GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578 boe/d.

<ul><li>Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.</li><li>This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.</li><li>This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. </li></ul>

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.This could de-risk the initial development of the Montney with potential for production in 2024.This could also materially increase the likelihood of attracting an industry partner. 

<ul><li> Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.</li><li>The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.</li><li>Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.</li></ul>

 Calima Energy (CE1 AU)C: Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the Montney in late January.The Calima #2 test will further define the gas and condensate potential of the Middle Montney.Decklar Resources (DKL CN)/San Leon Energy (SLE LN): Production update in Nigeria – Production from the Oza Oil Field has reached ~1,300 bbl/d.

Spain

Repsol S.A., through subsidiaries, explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas, refines petroleum, and transports petroleum products and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company retails gasoline and other products through its chain of gasoline filling stations.  Repsol's petroleum reserves are in Spain, Latin America, Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East and United States.

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Repsol SA (REP SM)

Gemini Postponed Sine Die

Standard & Poor's has raised Naturgy's credit outlook from negative to stable given the possibility that the company will not finally carry out the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 14/04/2023

GeoPark (GPRK US) C; Target price of US$26 per share: First horizontal well at LL-34 in production at over 3,000 bbl/d – 1Q23 production was 36,578...

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 17/02/2023

Positive testing results opens the Montney - Calima has so far obtained very good results from the re-testing of the Calima #2 and Calima #3 wells.

Auctus Advisors

Auctus on Friday - 20/01/2023

Target price of A$0.60 per share: Activity programme to unlock the value of the Montney – Calima will start the re-testing of two wells in the...

Auctus Advisors

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