Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>The 3 ADDs should be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a>.  The 3 DELETES <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a>. </li>
<li>Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.</li>
</ul>


Early predictions for the March 2023 Nikkei rebalance (TBA early Feb) are little changed. One way turnover would still be about 1.4%. I see 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs.
The 3 ADDs should be Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723), and Japan Airlines (9201).  The 3 DELETES Toho Zinc (5707), Toyobo (3101), and Nippon Light Metal (5703). 
Oriental Land is the one to watch in March. The Sep 2023 rebalance and subsequent ones are smaller in size but more interesting in impact.


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a>’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.</li>
<li>However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$1.1 billion secondary offering, Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)’s shares have remained broadly unchanged at the undisturbed price of JPY1570.5 per share (7 April).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements.
However, the shares have underperformed the Nikkei 225 index (up 7.9%). The offering will likely be priced on 14 April. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump's bill adds to fiscal imbalance.</li>
<li>Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.</li>
<li>Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.</li>
</ul>


Yields continue to rise as investors flee US assets and Trump's bill adds to fiscal imbalance.
Weakness for yesterdays big tech/AI outperformers to be reflected in Japan, although new lows unlikely.
Suzuki should see lower levels into its secondary pricing next week amid tepid longer-term investor backdrop.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Tokio Marine &amp; Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> by way of a secondary offering.</li>
<li>With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.</li>
<li>If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.</li>
</ul>


Tokio Marine &amp; Nichido Fire Insurance and Sompo Japan Insurance are looking to offload their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) by way of a secondary offering.
With the size of the secondary offering less than 5% of the number of shares, there could be no index buying in the short-term and that will pressure the stock.
If the overallotment option is exercised and the seller of the shares is currently considered as non-float, there could be small passive buying in the short-term.


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).</li>
<li>Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).</li>
</ul>



Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 95.7 million shares (110.1 million including overallotment), worth around US$1.1 billion (US$1.3 billion including overallotment).
Suzuki's goal with the secondary offering is (i) to reduce cross-shareholdings and (ii) to expand and diversify the shareholder base, which should further enhance liquidity.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and 23 April (likely 21 April).


Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements but has underperformed compared to the Nikkei index. The average large...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...

Andrew Jackson

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

Two large holders are looking to sell their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor. That is US$1.17bn including overallotment and 4.87% of shares out. That...

Brian Freitas

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and...

Arun George

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Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Updated Nikkei 225 Leaderboard for the March 2023 review. 10 weeks of data left til the cutoff. The top 3 ADDs are unch'd since Sep. The 3rd-ranked...

Travis Lundy

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): The Current Playbook

Suzuki's share performance is the joint best among recent large placements but has underperformed compared to the Nikkei index. The average large...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Tumble on China/US Standoff and Outlook for Capital Spending

​Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...

Andrew Jackson

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) Placement: Limited Index Buying & Weak Markets Could Pressure Stock

Two large holders are looking to sell their entire stakes in Suzuki Motor. That is US$1.17bn including overallotment and 4.87% of shares out. That...

Brian Freitas

Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 21 and...

Arun George

Investors fleeing US assets and Trump's bill adding to fiscal imbalance causing yields to rise further. New lows unlikely for big tech/AI, today's...