HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akeso-biopharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28830:1" rel="noopener">Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK)</a> and Summit Therapeutics entered into a collaborative and licensing agreement for AK112, which has set a new record for China's innovative drug license-out cooperation. </li>
<li>While the market remained positive about the transaction, there are also doubts. We deep dive the potential logic of the deal. </li>
<li>We recommended investors not to neglect “the nature of the deal” and “the real motivation” behind. It’s also important to see whether the subsequent operations can make some achievements overseas.</li>
</ul>



Akeso Biopharma Inc (9926 HK) and Summit Therapeutics entered into a collaborative and licensing agreement for AK112, which has set a new record for China's innovative drug license-out cooperation. 
While the market remained positive about the transaction, there are also doubts. We deep dive the potential logic of the deal. 
We recommended investors not to neglect “the nature of the deal” and “the real motivation” behind. It’s also important to see whether the subsequent operations can make some achievements overseas.


Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) - Behind the Deal with Summit: A Snake Swallows an Elephant?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.3% as of Dec 9th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt weeok on week, led by health care, real estate, materials and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn Lab, Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao Brewery.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 115.3% as of Dec 9th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.6ppt weeok on week, led by health care, real estate, materials and offset by consumer discretionary, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn Lab, Great Wall Motor, Tsingtao Brewery.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 9th): Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian, Joinn Lab, GWC, Tsingtao

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China further optimized COVID policy. The main reason to ease the policy at this time could be to release risks in advance so as to recover as soon as possible.</li>
<li>The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We analyzed three situations to help investors better understand “the new story” of Biotech at different stages.</li>
<li>We reviewed the performance of Company listed under HKEX Chapter 18A since this year. We found some interesting points worth the attention.</li>
</ul>


China further optimized COVID policy. The main reason to ease the policy at this time could be to release risks in advance so as to recover as soon as possible.
The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We analyzed three situations to help investors better understand “the new story” of Biotech at different stages.
We reviewed the performance of Company listed under HKEX Chapter 18A since this year. We found some interesting points worth the attention.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) - COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

<ul>
<li>The renewal results of coronary stent centralized procurement reflected that the government's attitude towards the price reduction in VBP has changed, who tend to correct the excessively low price.</li>
<li>Investors’d better not to have such a misconception that they only attach importance to R&amp;D rather than commercialization. Only if sales ability is verified can enterprises have better valuation premium.</li>
<li>Investors are advised to find the targets that are in “sector resonance” but also has “difference in expectations”. Ecology of innovative drug has changed, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd-4d320f25-a993-45c0-80da-db6b4e1129f9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36086:1" rel="noopener">Remegen (688331 CH).</a>
</li>
</ul>


The renewal results of coronary stent centralized procurement reflected that the government's attitude towards the price reduction in VBP has changed, who tend to correct the excessively low price.
Investors’d better not to have such a misconception that they only attach importance to R&amp;D rather than commercialization. Only if sales ability is verified can enterprises have better valuation premium.
Investors are advised to find the targets that are in “sector resonance” but also has “difference in expectations”. Ecology of innovative drug has changed, such as Remegen (688331 CH).



China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.2)- VBP Correction, Sales Ability Overweigh R&D, Expectation Difference

<ul>
<li>Our forecast of the total peak sales of BRUKINSA, tislelizumab and the rest commercialized products is about RMB10 billion, which is not enough for BeiGene to turn losses into profits. </li>
<li>BeiGene has the highest R&amp;D/academic ability among domestic pharmaceutical enterprises,but BeiGene cannot be assessed according to the standards of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises due to its fundamentally different cost structure/breakeven point.</li>
<li>The current market value has already priced in the success of TIGIT project to some extent. In other words, the upward elasticity may be limited. But BeiGene deserves long-term follow.</li>
</ul>


Our forecast of the total peak sales of BRUKINSA, tislelizumab and the rest commercialized products is about RMB10 billion, which is not enough for BeiGene to turn losses into profits. 
BeiGene has the highest R&amp;D/academic ability among domestic pharmaceutical enterprises,but BeiGene cannot be assessed according to the standards of Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises due to its fundamentally different cost structure/breakeven point.
The current market value has already priced in the success of TIGIT project to some extent. In other words, the upward elasticity may be limited. But BeiGene deserves long-term follow.


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22Q3 - The Price of Being an “Outlier”

China

RemeGen Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company develops therapeutic antibody drugs such as antibody drug conjugates (ADC), antibody fusion proteins, monoclonal antibodies and double antibodies. RemeGen provides solutions autoimmune diseases, tumor diseases, and ophthalmic diseases.

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Remegen (9995 HK)

Akeso Biopharma (9926.HK) - Behind the Deal with Summit: A Snake Swallows an Elephant?

The deal between Akeso and Summit set a new record of China license-out. We deep dive the logic of the deal. Investors are advised not to neglect...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 9th): Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian, Joinn Lab, GWC, Tsingtao

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Weichai Power, Shanghai Fudan, Guolian Securities, Joinn...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.9) - COVID Policy Update, Biotech Growth Curve, HKEX Chapter 18A Review

China further optimized COVID policy, so as to release risks in advance and recover ASAP. The growth curve of biotech is not linear. We reviewed...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.2)- VBP Correction, Sales Ability Overweigh R&D, Expectation Difference

VBP renewal of coronary stents shows the government will correct the underpricing;Only if sales ability is verified can biotech has better...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 22Q3 - The Price of Being an “Outlier”

Sales of current commercialized products isn't enough for BeiGene to turn loss into profit. BeiGene is fundamentally different from any other China...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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