Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a>.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January, four new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in January was ~28%, which is distorted by the take under for Esso Thailand (ESSO TB).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

<ul>
<li>There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/osstem-implant-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1450:1" rel="noopener">Osstem Implant (048260 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warrego-energy-ltd-082ab214-f4bb-4224-b321-8977486cd661" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7808:1" rel="noopener">Warrego (WGO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/norwest-energy-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1433:1" rel="noopener">Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acotec-scientific-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32176:1" rel="noopener">Acotec (6669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sabana-industrial-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:911:1" rel="noopener">Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco  (8595 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 43 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma in the past week: MBK and Unison Capital MBO-style Tender Offer for Osstem Implant (048260 KS).
Key updates took place for: Warrego (WGO AU), Norwest Energy NL (NWE AU), Acotec (6669 HK), Sabana Industrial REIT (SSREIT SP), Jafco  (8595 JP), and Toyo Construction (1890 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Mitsui&amp;Co has been in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/relia-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16219:1" rel="noopener">Relia Inc (4708 JP)</a> for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.</li>
<li>They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.</li>
<li>This is one of those times when I can reiterate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-needs-more-cowbell" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41191" rel="noopener">Japan Needs More Cowbell</a>. </li>
</ul>


Mitsui&amp;Co has been in Relia Inc (4708 JP) for a long time. As part of investing in BPO/RPA/AI services, they are buying out Relia, merging it with a KDDI sub.
They are buying it at an all-time high, and a 50% premium. Looks nice. But it's not nice enough.
This is one of those times when I can reiterate, Japan Needs More Cowbell. 


Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. </li>
<li>This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.</li>
<li>NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.</li>
</ul>


NTT sees a US$1 billion selldown of shares on Wednesday 29 December. 
This is due to a weird quirk in the way TOPIX and JPX Nikkei 400 are constructed and managed - a quirk not generally seen in other major index families.
NTT is cheap to peers, and NTT / Peer EPSe Ratios continue to grow, up and to the right.


Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

Japan

Relia, Inc. provides marketing services utilizing telephone, fax, and electronic  mail. The Company, an affiliate of Mitsui & Co., also provides customer service s, market research, and sales promotion services for businesses.

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Relia Inc (4708 JP)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2023: Essential Metals, Relia Inc, Osstem Implant, Esso Thailand

For the month of January, four new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$3bn. The average premium for the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Osstem, Warrego, Norwest Energy, Acotec, Sabana, Jafco, Toyo

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Mitsui & Co To Buy Out Relia (4708) - Moshi Moshi Is TOO CHEAP

Mitsui is buying out Relia (4708) formerly known as Moshi Moshi Hotline. It is an all-time high and big premium, but it is the wrong price. But...

Travis Lundy

Watch the $1bn Sell-On-Close on NTT (9432) Wednesday

NTT cancelled shares in November. That leads to a TOPIX event selldown at end-December. For NTT it is US$1bn. But NTT remains undeservedly cheap to...

Travis Lundy

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

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