IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silvercorp-metals-inc-139c2b2c-b1be-4cd9-92d7-257aca9924c9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38823:1" rel="noopener">Silvercorp Metals (SVM US)</a> at A$0.15 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share, a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices. However, the offer is light in comparison to peer multiples. </li>
<li>The bid could spur <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, a rumoured suitor, to show its hand. At the last close, the gross spread of the offer is 19.1%.</li>
</ul>



Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU) has entered a SID with Silvercorp Metals (SVM US) at A$0.15 cash and 0.0967 SVM shares per ORR share, a 31.5% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices. However, the offer is light in comparison to peer multiples. 
The bid could spur Perseus Mining (PRU AU), a rumoured suitor, to show its hand. At the last close, the gross spread of the offer is 19.1%.


OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp’s Binding Proposal

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/musgrave-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1" rel="noopener">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a> has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.</li>
<li>RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.</li>
<li>At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.</li>
</ul>



Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU) has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.
RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.
At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than Westgold Resources (WGX AU)’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.


Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

<ul>
<li>The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. </li>
<li>The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.</li>
<li>Notably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. </li>
</ul>


The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. 
The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.
Notably, Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

<ul>
<li>A battle is brewing between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.</li>
<li>SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. </li>
<li>Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    </li>
</ul>


A battle is brewing between Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) for St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.
SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. 
Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    


St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a>/DSS shareholders have approved the sale of DSS' 77.49% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> to the Widjaja family. </li>
<li>No objection has also been received from the OJK and IDX. The make-for-break condition is the GEAR shareholder approval of the distribution resolution, which DSS will abstain from voting on. </li>
<li>Minorities and SIAS rightly claim that the revised offer remains light. A bump to the offer, particularly to the delisting offer price is S$0.181, is required for a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)/DSS shareholders have approved the sale of DSS' 77.49% stake in Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) to the Widjaja family. 
No objection has also been received from the OJK and IDX. The make-for-break condition is the GEAR shareholder approval of the distribution resolution, which DSS will abstain from voting on. 
Minorities and SIAS rightly claim that the revised offer remains light. A bump to the offer, particularly to the delisting offer price is S$0.181, is required for a done deal. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Two Conditions Satisfied, Now for the Hard Part

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

AVZ Minerals Limited operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company acquires, develops, mines, and produces lithium, tin, tantalum, and other base metals. AVZ Minerals serves customers globally.

De Grey Mining Limited is an exploration and mining company focusing on zinc, gold, platinum, silver and base metals.

Iluka Resources Limited is involved in the mining, concentration and separation of mineral sands and titanium minerals. The Company also produces ilmenite and other titani-ferrous concentrates, zircon, and synthetic rutile along with the exploration of coal. Iluka's products are exported throughout the world.

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

OceanaGold Corporation is a gold mining and exploration company. The Company currently owns interests in projects in New Zealand and the Philippines.

Sandfire Resources Limited is an Australian copper and gold producer. The Company's key asset is the DeGrussa Copper-Gold Mine located in Western Australia. Sandfire also has exploration assets targeting a range of commodities throughout Australia.

Bellevue Gold Limited operates as a mining company. The Company engages in the exploration and development of gold mines. Bellevue Gold serves customers in Australia.

Gold Road Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration and production company. The Company focuses on its Yamarna Gold Project located east of Laverton, Western Australia.

Maanshan Iron and Steel Company Limited manufactures and markets iron and steel products which can be divided into four categories, wire rods, steel section, medium or thick steel plates, and train wheels and tires.  The production process mainly comprises coking, sintering, iron smelting, steel smelting, and steel rolling.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a producer of fabricated aluminum products for aerospace/high strength, general engineering, automotive and custom industrial applications. The Company's product lines includes sheet, plate, billet, redraw rod, extrusions, forgings, and tube products for a wide array of applications.

Tung Ho Steel Enterprise Corporation manufactures and markets steel rods, H-shaped steel frames, steel plates, and reinforcements.

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes steel and allied products. The Company markets sponge and pig iron, alloy carbon, mild steel billets, wire rods, and other steel products. Jai Balaji Industries serves customers throughout India.

Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. is mainly engaged in mining, concentration and smelting of gold, and the manufacture of chemical industry.

Shandong Iron and Steel Company Ltd. manufactures and markets steel materials. The Company produces pig iron, steel billets, cast iron, and related products.

Godawari Power and Ispat Ltd. manufactures steel.  The Company produces steel billets.

Zhejiang Hailiang Company, Ltd. manufactures and distributes steel pipes and copper rods.

Sichuan Hongda Co Ltd manufactures zinc ingots and zinc oxide products as well as processes and produces chemical products.  The Company's chemical products include phosphamidon, ordinary super phosphates, calcium phosphates, potash fertilizers, and compound fertilizers.

Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, also known as Chalco, is a producer of alumina and primary aluminum in China. The Company refines bauxite into alumina and smelts alumina to produce primary aluminum.

Red 5 Limited is a minieral exploration and development company. The Company's principal asset is the Siana Gold Project in the Philippines held under a Mineral Production Sharing Agreement by a Red5 Philippine compliant company. Red 5's second asset is the Mapawa MPSA, located north of Siana.

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Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)

OreCorp (ORR AU): Silvercorp’s Binding Proposal

The offer is attractive compared to the adjusted exchange ratios and historical prices but light compared to peer multiples. The bid could spur...

Arun George

Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

RMS' takeover offer is attractive and is currently 14.9% higher than WGX’s rival takeover offer. The wide value gap could prove challenging for WGX...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Minorities are in a strong position as DSS is required to abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the...

Arun George

St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Two Conditions Satisfied, Now for the Hard Part

Two conditions were satisfied but the make-for-break condition is the approval of the distribution resolution. The offer remains light vs GEAR's...

Arun George

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