Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? </li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. </li>
</ul>


PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? 
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.</li>
<li>We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  </li>
<li>It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) experiences approximately a 5-10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) decline in 1Q25. For the full year of 2025, we anticipate a modest year-over-year (YoY) decline of around 5%.
We have observed some strength from Taiwanese Fabless companies, which could support the 1Q25 demand for UMC.  
It has been noted that mature wafer demand is not solely driven by China and may help offset the impacts of the US-China Trade War, benefiting foundries outside of China.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Realtek Semiconductor, Wisdom Marine Lines, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Yang Ming Marine.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Jan 3rd which has an aggregated short interest worth USD21.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Realtek Semiconductor, Wisdom Marine Lines, Wiwynn, Eva Airways, Yang Ming Marine.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Realtek Semiconductor, Wisdom Marine Lines, Wiwynn

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 22nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,003.7bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,568mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Yang Ming Marine, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 22nd which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,003.7bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,568mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Yang Ming Marine, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision Industry, Quanta Computer, Asustek Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 22nd): Yang Ming Marine, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta, Asustek

Taiwan

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

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Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Outlook; Surprise Support of Taiwanese Fabless.

UMC expects a 5-10% QoQ decline in 1Q25, with a modest 5% YoY decline for 2025. Taiwanese Fabless companies may boost 1Q25 demand, while mature...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Jan 3rd): Realtek Semiconductor, Wisdom Marine Lines, Wiwynn

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Realtek Semiconductor, Wisdom Marine Lines,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 22nd): Yang Ming Marine, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Quanta, Asustek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Yang Ming Marine, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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