Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I currently expect one change for the ASX 100 index and five changes (including one intra-review change) for the ASX 200 index.</li>
<li>There could be 7 ADDs and 5 DELs for the ASX 300 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the September 2023 Rebalance.
I currently expect one change for the ASX 100 index and five changes (including one intra-review change) for the ASX 200 index.
There could be 7 ADDs and 5 DELs for the ASX 300 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Many Changes Ahead

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. </li>
<li>The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.</li>
<li>Notably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. </li>
</ul>


The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. 
The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.
Notably, Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Anz Group Holdin, Worley, Lynas Rare Earth, Macquarie, Bhp, Natl Aust Bank, Medibank Private, South32, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD17.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Anz Group Holdin, Worley, Lynas Rare Earth, Macquarie, Bhp, Natl Aust Bank, Medibank Private, South32, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 12th): ANZ, Worley, Lynas, Macquarie, BHP, NAB, Medibank, South32

<ul>
<li>A battle is brewing between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.</li>
<li>SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. </li>
<li>Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    </li>
</ul>


A battle is brewing between Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) for St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.
SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. 
Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    


St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  </li>
<li>Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)</a>, are big beneficiaries.</li>
<li>Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arclands-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10395:1" rel="noopener">Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcland-service-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2392:1" rel="noopener">Arcland Service (3085 JP)</a> - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. </li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is ultimately quite skippable. While ¥4,620 seems like "the wrong price" over a 5-year period, it is not clear that is the wrong price now.  
Global military touches a new high. South Korean defence contractors, such as Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS), are big beneficiaries.
Historically, the "event" which helps Murakami-san get out - with respect to Arclands Corporation (9842 JP)/Arcland Service (3085 JP) - is not one which is suitable for "normal" investors. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 23: Many Changes Ahead

ABP's price ratios vs peers are very close to the upper Bollinger bands and have also significantly outperformed the trends in FY+1 and FY+2 EPS...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Minorities are in a strong position as DSS is required to abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 12th): ANZ, Worley, Lynas, Macquarie, BHP, NAB, Medibank, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, Worley, Lynas, Macquarie, BHP, NAB, Medibank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Asian Defence Contractors, Arclands Corp/Services, Bank of Kyoto

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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