Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>Back on the 18th October, gold miner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02436827-6A1056350?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended takeover offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10021:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU)</a>, by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP. Apollo shareholders would receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares plus cash of $0.34 for every Apollo share held, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Apollo's board, and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out would tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer was conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.</p>
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<p>This looked like a done deal.</p>
<p>Then on the 21 October <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> made an unconditional off-market all-cash Offer  - <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02438747-6A1057185?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">at A$0.56/share</a>. Gold Road, holding 19.9% at the time of the announcement, also stood in the market at $0.56/share. </p>
<p>Yesterday, Ramelius bumped its Offer to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02445673-2A1335292?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$0.62/share</a> comprising $0.34/share in cash plus 0.1778 Ramelius shares for Apollo shares. Ramelius also secured binding agreements to acquire a 19.9% shareholding in Apollo from Apollo’s board and Apollo’s second-largest shareholder.</p>
<p>The Bidder's Statement has been <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02446051-6A1060474?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dispatched</a>, with a first closing date is on the 3 December. </p>
<p>The Offer is unconditional.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
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Back on the 18th October, gold miner Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) made a recommended takeover offer for Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU), by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP. Apollo shareholders would receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares plus cash of $0.34 for every Apollo share held, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Apollo's board, and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out would tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer was conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.


This looked like a done deal.
Then on the 21 October Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) made an unconditional off-market all-cash Offer  - at A$0.56/share. Gold Road, holding 19.9% at the time of the announcement, also stood in the market at $0.56/share. 
Yesterday, Ramelius bumped its Offer to A$0.62/share comprising $0.34/share in cash plus 0.1778 Ramelius shares for Apollo shares. Ramelius also secured binding agreements to acquire a 19.9% shareholding in Apollo from Apollo’s board and Apollo’s second-largest shareholder.
The Bidder's Statement has been dispatched, with a first closing date is on the 3 December. 
The Offer is unconditional.
More below the fold.


Apollo (AOP AU)'s Shares Trading Through Ramelius' Revised Offer

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> has made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02436827-6A1056350?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended takeover offer</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10021:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU)</a>, by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP.</p>
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<p>Apollo shareholders will receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares for every Apollo share held plus cash of $0.34 for each Apollo share, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split.</p>
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<p>The Offer has the unanimous backing of Apollo's board and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out will tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer is conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.</p>
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<p>This looks like a done deal.</p>
<p>The Apollo transaction roughly mirrors the deal structure of Ramelius' successful takeover of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spectrum-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2237:1" rel="noopener">Spectrum Metals (SPX AU)</a> last year and discussed in<em><a href="https://skr.ma/NUcy1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Spectrum Metals: Inside Ramelius' Wheelhouse</a></em>.</p>
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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) has made a recommended takeover offer for Apollo Consolidated (AOP AU), by way of cash and scrip, at A$0.56/share, a 27% premium to Apollo's 3-day VWAP.


Apollo shareholders will receive 0.1375 Ramelius shares for every Apollo share held plus cash of $0.34 for each Apollo share, in a roughly 39%/61% scrip/cash split.


The Offer has the unanimous backing of Apollo's board and Apollo directors holding 13.7% of shares out will tender their shares into the Offer. The Offer is conditional on 90% minimum acceptance by Apollo shareholders.


This looks like a done deal.
The Apollo transaction roughly mirrors the deal structure of Ramelius' successful takeover of Spectrum Metals (SPX AU) last year and discussed in Spectrum Metals: Inside Ramelius' Wheelhouse.


Ramelius (RMS AU) Adds Apollo To Its Portfolio

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p></div><div>
<p>The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.</p>
<p>Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.</p>
<p>Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</p>
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S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20200903-1214159/1214159_2020.09.04-quarta-200.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.</p><p>There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aub-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11179:1" rel="noopener">Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> and the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ooh-media-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8662:1" rel="noopener">oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a>.</p><p>Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd-8c26dbc6-035c-46ae-84c3-6401a1d454e4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24928:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU)</a> was a surprise among the inclusions and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a> was a surprise among the deletions.</p><p>Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.</p><p>Short interest is elevated on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-hope-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4414:1" rel="noopener">New Hope Corp (NHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10374:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Media (SXL AU)</a> at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 18 September.There are 5 inclusions and 5 exclusions as part of the review.The inclusions are Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU), Austbrokers Holdings (AUB AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU), Westgold Resources (WGX AU) and Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) and the exclusions are Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), New Hope Corp (NHC AU), oOh!Media Ltd (OML AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU).Most of the names were expected to be included/excluded from the index. For us, Auckland Intl Airport (AIA AU) was a surprise among the inclusions and Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU) was a surprise among the deletions.Quite a few stocks have more than 2 days of passive buying/selling. The one stock that does not is Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) where volumes have been elevated over the past week following Paypal's entry into the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) market that has sent Z1P's stock around 26% lower.Short interest is elevated on New Hope Corp (NHC AU), Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU) and Southern Cross Media (SXL AU) at more than 8 days to cover. Some of these stocks may rise before implementation day as borrows are recalled by passive funds/ index arb desks.

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

Australia

Ramelius Resources Limited is a gold exploration and production company with exploration activities focused in Western Australia.  The Company also explores for base metals.

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Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

Apollo (AOP AU)'s Shares Trading Through Ramelius' Revised Offer

I think Gold Road may reload - but the Ramelius' Offer price is already a 91.5% premium to the six-month undisturbed VWAP. I question how much...

David Blennerhassett

Ramelius (RMS AU) Adds Apollo To Its Portfolio

Trading at a gross spread of 7.2% - similar to the gross spread at the time of Ramelius' Offer for Spectrum last year. I expect the deal to get...

David Blennerhassett

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: More Changes Than Expected

SP Dow Jones Indices have announced changes to the SP/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review.

Brian Freitas

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