Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -0.2% as Equities continued with Recession trade overnight with Defensive &gt;Cyclicals;  Tech, Discretionary, Industrials stocks hit;  ADP Employment+Services PMI add fuel to Recession narrative; Next up: Non-Farm Payrolls</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.4; As US recession narrative strenghtens, expect selling of US exposed Discretionary; China weighs export ban on Rare earths;Rakuen cuts Bank IPO price</li>
<li>NUGGET. Panasonic+Stellantis=Expansion of Battery Profits.  IF Panasonic and Stellantis can agree, it could mean significant share price upside.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -0.2% as Equities continued with Recession trade overnight with Defensive &gt;Cyclicals;  Tech, Discretionary, Industrials stocks hit;  ADP Employment+Services PMI add fuel to Recession narrative; Next up: Non-Farm Payrolls
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY 131.4; As US recession narrative strenghtens, expect selling of US exposed Discretionary; China weighs export ban on Rare earths;Rakuen cuts Bank IPO price
NUGGET. Panasonic+Stellantis=Expansion of Battery Profits.  IF Panasonic and Stellantis can agree, it could mean significant share price upside.


Good Morning Japan |Recession Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Panasonic+Stellantis =Expanded Battery Profits

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> has set its IPO price at JPY1,300-1,400 per share which is 20%-29% lower than the IPO reference price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98721" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-vs-sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98866" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:99335" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.   </li>
<li>The new price range values Rakuten Bank at a discount vs peers for the ROE it delivers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> strong post-IPO performance suggests strong sector sentiment.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) has set its IPO price at JPY1,300-1,400 per share which is 20%-29% lower than the IPO reference price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share.
We previously discussed the IPO in Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case, Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank and Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights.   
The new price range values Rakuten Bank at a discount vs peers for the ROE it delivers. SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) strong post-IPO performance suggests strong sector sentiment.


Rakuten Bank IPO: New Price Range Is a Steal

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> has an advantage over competitors due to its connection with the Rakuten ecosystem, which has 39+ million monthly active users.</li>
<li>It's NIM has decreased, but the cost-to-income ratio is the lowest among digital banks, and its net-fee and commission-income has grown significantly, thanks to its association with the Rakuten ecosystem.</li>
<li>The IPO price range is reasonable given its advantageous position. Therefore we intend to subscribe to the IPO when it opens.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) has an advantage over competitors due to its connection with the Rakuten ecosystem, which has 39+ million monthly active users.
It's NIM has decreased, but the cost-to-income ratio is the lowest among digital banks, and its net-fee and commission-income has grown significantly, thanks to its association with the Rakuten ecosystem.
The IPO price range is reasonable given its advantageous position. Therefore we intend to subscribe to the IPO when it opens.


Rakuten Bank IPO: Leveraging the Power of the Rakuten Ecosystem to Lead Japan's Digital Banking

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s restructuring news caused some exiciting in the IPO market this week, with Hong Kong filings picking up as well. </li>
<li>On the placements front, all eyes remain on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> will do a placement.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s restructuring news caused some exiciting in the IPO market this week, with Hong Kong filings picking up as well. 
On the placements front, all eyes remain on Meituan (3690 HK) and whether Prosus (PRX NA) will do a placement.


ECM Weekly (2nd Apr 2023) - Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Merdeka, ZJLD, Trial Hol, DPC, WCP, MLT

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise up to $878m. Pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April. </li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98721" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-bank-vs-sbi-sumishin-net-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:98866" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Rakuten Bank is fairly valued at the IPO price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) is an online bank in Japan. It is looking to raise up to $878m. Pricing is on 5 April and the listing is on 21 April. 
We previously discussed the IPO in Rakuten Bank IPO: The Investment Case and Rakuten Bank Vs SBI Sumishin Net Bank. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that Rakuten Bank is fairly valued at the IPO price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share. We would participate in the IPO.


Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Good Morning Japan |Recession Fears Dominate; NUGGET: Panasonic+Stellantis =Expanded Battery Profits

As the US recession narrative strengthens, there is an expectation of increased selling pressure on US-exposed discretionary stocks. Watching the...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten Bank IPO: New Price Range Is a Steal

The new price range values Rakuten Bank at a discount vs peers for the ROE it delivers. SBI Sumishin Net Bank's strong post-IPO performance...

Arun George

Rakuten Bank IPO: Leveraging the Power of the Rakuten Ecosystem to Lead Japan's Digital Banking

Rakuten Bank, with its connection to Rakuten ecosystem, has an advantage over competitors. A lower cost-to-income ratio and growth in net fee and...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

ECM Weekly (2nd Apr 2023) - Meituan, Rakuten Bank, SBI, Merdeka, ZJLD, Trial Hol, DPC, WCP, MLT

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten Bank IPO: Valuation Insights

Our analysis suggests that Rakuten Bank is fairly valued at the IPO price range of JPY1,630-1,960 per share. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

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