'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/081/407/original/2019-03-09_14-25-50.png?1552109168" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="81407"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-the-2018-q3-cash-flow-stakes-runners-riders-red-flags" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:26816">Insight</a> with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -
<ul>
<li>Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>
Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 
<ul>
<li>Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Financing Cash Flow</li>
<li>Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) </li>
</ul>
     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13475" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13475:1">Pan Pacific International (7532 JP)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1040" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">I</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6391" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6391:1">DOM (7599 JP)</a>



Source: Japan Analytics

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market composite cash flow model reformulates disclosed cash flows into four categories which sum to Change in Cash: -

Operating Cash Flow

Investing Cash Flow (which includes Inventory Cash Flow) 

Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow)


Financing Cash Flow
Shareholder Cash Flow  (Equity Cash Flow and Dividend Cash Flow) 

     =  Change in Cash (including Minorities Cash Flow)
OCF COLLAPSES - In the last three months, Japan's non-financial companies generated only ¥2.1t in Operating Cash Flow (OCF), ¥10.1t less than the previous quarter. ¥2.1t is the lowest quarterly OCF since 2016-Q2, and the quarter-on-quarter decline is the largest since 2009 and represents a substantial 'red flag' for the market.
FCF NEGATIVE - Aggregate spending on fixed assets shrunk by ¥4.5t qoq to ¥4.6t resulting in Free Cash Flow for the quarter of -¥2.5t, the first negative Free Cash Flow quarter since 2012-Q4. Softbank Group (9984 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and Fast Retailing (9983 JP) together generated ¥3.3t in positive Free Cash Flow for the quarter. Excluding these three companies, the aggregate total quarterly FCF was -¥5.8t, equivalent to an annualised Free Cash Flow yield of -4.3% for the universe of listed non-financial companies.
BACK TO BORROWING - To finance ¥4.5t in dividend payments, Japanese non-financial companies borrowed ¥4.8t in new debt, sold investment securities worth ¥1.9t (the most significant reduction since 2016-Q2) and raised 0.28t in new equity net of share buybacks. This increase in financing cash flow was the largest in any quarter since 2009.
SECTORS &amp; STOCKS - In the DETAIL below, we also look at sector cash flow trends and provide brief comments on some of the most significant changes in individual cash flows over the last three months including Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Pan Pacific International (7532 JP),  Lawson (2651 JP), and IDOM (7599 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

The publication of Lyft's IPO prospectus is a clear positive for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> . As a pure investment, Rakuten's return on its Lyft investments could be 273-366% or ¥101-136 per share based on the $20-25bn valuation range reported by the press. There has been a lot of focus on the investment gains Rakuten should accrue but the real upside is a timely boost to liquidity plus accounting cover as mobile investment accelerates.  Whether one believes Rakuten can succeed in mobile or not, it has the capital and paper profits to support a splashy introduction and spending is already accelerating.

The publication of Lyft's IPO prospectus is a clear positive for Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) . As a pure investment, Rakuten's return on its Lyft investments could be 273-366% or ¥101-136 per share based on the $20-25bn valuation range reported by the press. There has been a lot of focus on the investment gains Rakuten should accrue but the real upside is a timely boost to liquidity plus accounting cover as mobile investment accelerates.  Whether one believes Rakuten can succeed in mobile or not, it has the capital and paper profits to support a splashy introduction and spending is already accelerating.

Rakuten: Lyft IPO Provides Timely Support for Mobile Deployment

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (0812823D US)</a> plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 
Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.
In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can't develop an accurate picture of the business.

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. 
Overall growth numbers have been great but some of the numbers are missing like the quarterly driver numbers, the number of shared riders versus single riders, organic growth in major cities, and progress of Canada operations, to name a few.
In my view, without the quarterly active driver numbers and the full picture of the extent of shared rides, one can't develop an accurate picture of the business.

LYFT Pre-IPO - Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Director, Pearl Hill Advisors

Nicholas Tanner

Director

Pearl Hill Advisors

Assuming a sum of the parts valuation the shares are cheap. We can assume the fintech business is worth perhaps Y800-900bn (based on 10x ebit, similar to Credit Saison), the domestic e-commerce operation (which makes an operating profit of about Y70bn on revenue of Y450bn) is worth perhaps Y1.2tr (assuming a valuation of 3x sales vs. 3.5x for Amazon). There are other parts of the business which detract and there are others, including a Y350bn plus investment portfolio which add but overall, all this compares with a market cap of a mere Y1.3tr. This suggests the market is thinking that Rakuten is more than throwing its MNO investment of Y600bn away. Given the Governments desire to reduce prices in the mobile market, and its desire for 4 operators, we would suggest this is overly negative. The recent announcement that Lyft will seek an IPO has lifted the share price given its 10% stake in this name (rumoured valuation of $23bn vs. $15bn currently), but we suspect the shares have much further to run. The market knows earnings will be depressed for the next 2 years or so but does not anticipate any recovery thereafter it would appear.

Assuming a sum of the parts valuation the shares are cheap. We can assume the fintech business is worth perhaps Y800-900bn (based on 10x ebit, similar to Credit Saison), the domestic e-commerce operation (which makes an operating profit of about Y70bn on revenue of Y450bn) is worth perhaps Y1.2tr (assuming a valuation of 3x sales vs. 3.5x for Amazon). There are other parts of the business which detract and there are others, including a Y350bn plus investment portfolio which add but overall, all this compares with a market cap of a mere Y1.3tr. This suggests the market is thinking that Rakuten is more than throwing its MNO investment of Y600bn away. Given the Governments desire to reduce prices in the mobile market, and its desire for 4 operators, we would suggest this is overly negative. The recent announcement that Lyft will seek an IPO has lifted the share price given its 10% stake in this name (rumoured valuation of $23bn vs. $15bn currently), but we suspect the shares have much further to run. The market knows earnings will be depressed for the next 2 years or so but does not anticipate any recovery thereafter it would appear.

Rakuten (4755) Lyft Lifts Shares Price but There Is Much Further to Go.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24423" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24423:1">Lyft Inc (0812823D US)</a> has kicked off its IPO by posting its S-1 filing last Friday. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> is Lyft’s single largest shareholder with a 13.05% stake. Rakuten has invested around $700 million to acquire its current Lyft stake and stands to make 3-4 times its investment if Lyft achieves its rumoured IPO valuation range of $20-25 billion.<div class="content-highlight">Lyft’s IPO valuation range was first reported by Reuters on 20 February 2019. On the back of the news, Rakuten’s shares have so far risen around 10%. Notably, at the IPO valuation range, the Lyft stake would account for 20-25% of Rakuten’s current market cap. While the Lyft IPO will prove to be a big winner for Rakuten from an ROI perspective, we believe that from a valuation perspective, the upside is modest.</div>

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) has kicked off its IPO by posting its S-1 filing last Friday. Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is Lyft’s single largest shareholder with a 13.05% stake. Rakuten has invested around $700 million to acquire its current Lyft stake and stands to make 3-4 times its investment if Lyft achieves its rumoured IPO valuation range of $20-25 billion.Lyft’s IPO valuation range was first reported by Reuters on 20 February 2019. On the back of the news, Rakuten’s shares have so far risen around 10%. Notably, at the IPO valuation range, the Lyft stake would account for 20-25% of Rakuten’s current market cap. While the Lyft IPO will prove to be a big winner for Rakuten from an ROI perspective, we believe that from a valuation perspective, the upside is modest.

Rakuten (4755 JP): Lyft IPO’s Big Lift Unlikely to Lead to a Sustained Re-Rating

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Rakuten (4755 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Largest QoQ Decline in Operating Cash Flow in a Decade - Free Cash Flow Turns Negative

JAPAN CORPORATE CASH FLOW UPDATE - This insight updates our previous Insight with data from all of the most recent quarterly reports. Our market...

Campbell Gunn

Rakuten: Lyft IPO Provides Timely Support for Mobile Deployment

The publication of Lyft's IPO prospectus is a clear positive for Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) . As a pure investment, Rakuten's return on its Lyft...

Kirk Boodry

LYFT Pre-IPO - Drivers and Shared Rides Hold the Key But the Numbers Are Missing

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) plans to list in the US at a valuation of US$20-25bn, as per media reports. Overall growth numbers have been great but some...

Sumeet Singh

Rakuten (4755) Lyft Lifts Shares Price but There Is Much Further to Go.

Assuming a sum of the parts valuation the shares are cheap. We can assume the fintech business is worth perhaps Y800-900bn (based on 10x ebit,...

Pearl Hill Advisors

Rakuten (4755 JP): Lyft IPO’s Big Lift Unlikely to Lead to a Sustained Re-Rating

Lyft Inc (0812823D US) has kicked off its IPO by posting its S-1 filing last Friday. Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) is Lyft’s single largest shareholder...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)