Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. </li>
<li>Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.</li>
</ul>


We look at which Japan banks have the most cash which can see a major boost to returns. 
Banks with lower margins can see a higher net interest income pick up from rising rates. 
Loan growth in Japan has been relatively strong, supportive of rising rates from BOJ.


Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>2023 marked our eighth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia Pacific. In 2023, IPOs didn’t pick up much from the low base of 2022  while placements showed upward momentum.</li>
<li>We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115 placements.</li>
<li>For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.</li>
</ul>


2023 marked our eighth year covering Equity Capital Markets in Asia Pacific. In 2023, IPOs didn’t pick up much from the low base of 2022  while placements showed upward momentum.
We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115 placements.
For those not familiar with our coverage, we aim to cover all IPOs and placements with a minimum deal size of US$100m across Asia-Pacific, including China ADRs.


Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As per Reuters, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> could look to sell up to 10% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.</li>
<li>Toyota is the company’s largest shareholder and its largest customer.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


As per Reuters, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) could look to sell up to 10% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.
Toyota is the company’s largest shareholder and its largest customer.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.


Denso Corp Placement - Possible Placement by Toyota to Raise US$4.7bn

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-h1-bank-earnings-interest-fees-up-expenses-credit-costs-down-opportunity-abounds-still" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116534" rel="noopener">Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still</a> last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.</li>
<li>Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. </li>
<li>Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.</li>
</ul>


I wrote Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still last week mentioning the trends in guidance revisions.
Since then, five have reported H1. +20%, +53%, +23% vs guidance; +25.6%, and +28.2% vs Last Year. Eight more have added new guidance, weighted average H1 up 48%. 
Four more report tomorrow, eight on Thurs, 43 on Friday. The Top 5 are all next Mon/Tues. Watch for comments about portfolio restructuring efforts in H2 as market yields rise.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

<ul>
<li>What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low</li>
<li>Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.</li>
<li>Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23</li>
</ul>


What's new is that Japan's domestic credit growth is accelerating, and it's now better than in Singapore, for instance; accelerating to 2.51% YoY in July from 0.77% February low
Loan growth and higher JGB yields, both matter for net interest income, and margins. Two year JGB yields are 0.035% on 22 September compared with -0.075% on 30 June.
Profit delta can rise further for Japan's banks due to better NPLs, with the largest banks' credit costs/loans moving to 5bps in 1Q24, vs 21bps in 4Q22, 11bps in 1Q23


Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Japan

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

SBI Shinsei Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction, as well as investment trust service and issuance of long-term bonds.

The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Nagano Prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and trust accounts. The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, credit guarantee, debt recovery, trading, and venture capital and operates branches overseas.

The Bank of Kyoto, Ltd. is a regional bank in Kyoto.  The Bank provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments.  The Bank of Kyoto also provides financial services such as letter of credit, leasing, loans, and credit cards.

The Gunma Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Gunma Prefecture.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transaction.  The Gunma Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, letter of credit, and investment advisory, and develops information systems.

Yamaguchi Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Yamaguchi Bank and Momiji Holdings. The Group provides variety of financial services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, leasing and credit cards.

Kyushu Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Higo Bank and Kagoshima Bank.  The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, and exchange transactions.  Kyushu Financial Group also provides other financial services including security brokerage, credit cards, leasing, and letters of credit.

Aozora Bank, Ltd. provides banking services including deposits, savings, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and securities investments. Aozora Bank also provides services such as trust account, resolution and collection, and venture capital.

The 77 Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank in Tohoku area.  The Bank provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and exchange transactions. The Bank also provides others financial services such as securities brokerage, trust banking, letter of credit, leasing, credit cards, and computer services.

Seven Bank, Ltd. provides banking services mainly through Automated Teller Machine (ATM) across Japan. The bank cooperates with affiliated financial institutions to establish the nationwide ATM network and provide remote banking services, including deposits and loans.

AMMB Holdings Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides merchant and commercial banking, retail financing, stock and futures broking, and investment advisory. AMMB also underwrites general insurance, provides asset and unit trust management, and nominees services.

Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation provides banking services. The Bank checking accounts, lending, credit cards, online and mobile banking, and wealth and treasury management services. Atlantic Union Bankshares serves customers in the United States.

Community Bank System, Inc. is a holding company for Community Bank, N.A.  The Bank offers a range of commercial and retail banking services in each of its market areas to business, individual, agricultural, and governmental customers. Community Bank operates in northern New York to the southern tier, west to Lake Erie, and in northeastern Pennsylvania.

International Bancshares Corporation, through its bank subsidiaries, provides commercial and retail banking services through offices in south and southeast Texas.  The Bank accepts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to make a variety of loans.

Cathay General Bancorp is the holding company for Cathay Bank.  The Bank accepts deposits and originates various loans, and offers trade financing, spot and forward contracts, internet banking, global investment services, and other services.  Cathay Bank operates in California, New York, Texas, Washington, and Massachusetts.

Fulton Financial Corporation is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks offer a full range of general retail and commercial banking services, including deposits, loans, equipment leasing and financing, and credit cards. Fulton operates in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.

The Bank of East Asia, Limited and its subsidiaries provide general banking, related financial, business corporate, and investor services.

Huishang Bank Corporation Limited is a commercial bank. The Bank provides banking services including loans, money market operations, treasury business, investment and trading services, and valet transactions.

Taichung Commercial Bank conducts commercial banking and trust business.  The Bank accepts deposits, offers loans, as well as  invests in bonds and stocks. Taichung Commercial Banks provides bills and notes discounting, draft endorsement, domestic remittance, guarantee, and securities underwriting and brokerage services.

Ameris Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company. The Banks provide a broad range of retail and commercial banking services to its customers, including checking and savings deposits, commercial and consumer loans, trust services, discount brokerage services, and electronic funds transfer services. Ameris Bancorp operates in Georgia, Florida, and Alabama.

Rakuten Bank, Ltd. operates as an Internet based bank. The Company provides banking services including deposits, loans, exchange transactions, and other services. Rakuten Bank also provides financial services including investment trusts, securities, credit and cash cards, lottery tickets, and others.

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Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)

Japan - Rising Rates: Focus On Banks With High Cash And Low Margins

With BOJ shifting its interest rate policy there can be vast differences with banks that have high cash holdings and banks with relatively low...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas 2023 IPOs and Placements Performance Review - IPOs Forming a Low Base, Placements Pick Up

2023 was our eight year of covering Asia ECM. We ended 2023 with an accuracy rate of 73.7% across 57 IPOs that we covered and 79.3% across 115...

Sumeet Singh

Denso Corp Placement - Possible Placement by Toyota to Raise US$4.7bn

As per Reuters, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) could look to sell up to 10% of Denso Corp (6902 JP) to raise around US$4.7bn before the end of the year.

Sumeet Singh

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Last Minute Update; Suruga Bank Reacts Well

Since last week's piece, 5 banks have reported strong H1 results, ahead of guidance and up yoy. 7 more have amended H1 guidance up an average of...

Travis Lundy

Japan Banks - Accelerating Domestic Credit | JGB Yields Higher | Provisions -79% QoQ & -58% YoY

Japan's banks are seeing accelerating domestic credit growth, better than Singapore now. JGB yields remain higher than in the past, credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

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