Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).

The Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) calculates Free-Float Weight (FFW) for each listed company and uses this value as a key component of TOPIX Index Calculation. For companies with "low liquidity" the FFW will be multiplied by a fixed liquidity factor of 0.75 to derive the final FFW used for index calculation. This affects both TSE-1 incumbents and new entrants (depending on the date of entry). Every April, the application of this liquidity factor is reviewed by the TSE for all TSE1 constituents. Last April, 71 constituents saw their liquidity factors removed causing an increase in their respective FFWs used for index calculation resulting in a TOPIX upweight.This situation opens up interesting opportunities for a basket trade. Below is a discussion regarding the key details of TSE's FFW Calculation Methodology and the candidate stocks which could potentially experience a change in the application of the liquidity factor (including some surprisingly big names).   

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

Research from e27, e27

Research from e27

e27 is Asia's largest Tech media platform. We cover the latest news on emerging and disruptive businesses across the region.

Private Capital Markets

<ul><li>JOSYS is a B2B platform that streamlines corporate IT operations through automated management of IT devices and SaaS applications</li><li>JOSYS, a Japanese company offering a B2B SaaS platform for corporate IT operations, has raised US$32 million in a funding round led by Global Brain Corporation</li><li>With this money, JOSYS — a spin-off of the Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed RAKSUL — plans to strengthen its development wing in India and sales structure in Japan</li></ul>

JOSYS is a B2B platform that streamlines corporate IT operations through automated management of IT devices and SaaS applicationsJOSYS, a Japanese company offering a B2B SaaS platform for corporate IT operations, has raised US$32 million in a funding round led by Global Brain CorporationWith this money, JOSYS — a spin-off of the Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed RAKSUL — plans to strengthen its development wing in India and sales structure in Japan

Japan’s Corporate IT Operations Firm JOSYS Nets US$32M Funding, to Expand to Singapore

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

This insight is meant to be read in conjunction with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-upweights-big-april-basket-2021-pre-event-is-a-win-now-the-event-leg" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50084" rel="noopener">TOPIX Upweights: Big April Basket 2021 Pre-Event Is a WIN! Now the Event-Leg!</a> (which is the announced result of the proposed 50-name buy basket introduced in the explanation of an annual but obscure aspect of TOPIX Index calculation rebalancing explained in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-index-upweights-the-big-april-basket-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021</a>).Suffice it to say, he got 48 out of the 50 names chosen right, and there are a few more trades related to this on the side. That is US$1.1bn to buy. This insight is about all the OTHER names in the TOPIX rebalance for April 2020, including a total of 43 up-weights and 16 down-weights with ~ US$500mm to buy and US$260mm to sell.That means there will be a US$1bn sell on the close of the 28th too. Not huge, but there. The trades to do here are for investors to see if any of these situations warrant use as a liquidity event.

This insight is meant to be read in conjunction with Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA's TOPIX Upweights: Big April Basket 2021 Pre-Event Is a WIN! Now the Event-Leg! (which is the announced result of the proposed 50-name buy basket introduced in the explanation of an annual but obscure aspect of TOPIX Index calculation rebalancing explained in TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021).Suffice it to say, he got 48 out of the 50 names chosen right, and there are a few more trades related to this on the side. That is US$1.1bn to buy. This insight is about all the OTHER names in the TOPIX rebalance for April 2020, including a total of 43 up-weights and 16 down-weights with ~ US$500mm to buy and US$260mm to sell.That means there will be a US$1bn sell on the close of the 28th too. Not huge, but there. The trades to do here are for investors to see if any of these situations warrant use as a liquidity event. 

TOPIX April-End Rebalance - The OTHER Trades

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
• BEST &amp; WORST •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/338/original/2020-09-11_06-10-01.png?1599772225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158338"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/339/original/2020-09-11_06-11-10.png?1599772281" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158339"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
BEST &amp; WORST - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul (4384 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-dome-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6421:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Dome (9681 JP)</a> were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.<hr>
</div><div>DAILY STATS</div><hr><div>PERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</div><hr><div>32 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Results Score: 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.3 points</li>
</ul></div>


• BEST &amp; WORST •
Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
BEST &amp; WORST - As the pace of announcements for the January/April/July/October year-end cohort increases,  Raksul (4384 JP) and Tokyo Dome (9681 JP) were the best and worst-scoring of the larger companies that reported yesterday. The former is aiming to bring commercial printing int to the digital age but is yet t achieve sustainable profitability. The latter is another 'activist trap'  struggling with the fallout from COVID-19.
DAILY STATSPERCENTAGES -53% of quarterly results, 53% of annual forecasts/revisions and only 29% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 28% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.32 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 34% Positive / 13% Neutral / 53% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -1.4 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.9% Quarter YoY / -5.1% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.6ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 28%
17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 12% Neutral / 53% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 71% Positive / 0% Neutral / 29% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.3 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/728/original/2019-03-02_20-40-55.png?1551526871" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80728"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/722/original/2019-03-02_18-02-59.png?1551517390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80722"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/724/original/2019-03-02_18-07-56.png?1551517689" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80724"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/729/original/2019-03-02_20-41-51.png?1551526925" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80729"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>HOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20269" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20269:1">Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8431" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8431:1">Parco (8251 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14674" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14674:1">Nichias (5393 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27043" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1">Raksul (4384 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10503" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10503:1">Daito Trust (1878 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14502" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>.


Source: Japan Analytics
LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the strongest in over two years, and much of this 'boom' is flowing into risk assets. Large-scale repatriation of offshore funds by US companies has also helped boost the US dollar against the yen. The Market Composite responded by rising 2.3% over the last two weeks, although only by 1% in US dollar terms.WEAK MACRO - Net exports and higher inventories offset private investment and consumption during the fourth quarter, resulting in flat GDP growth year-on-year. January industrial production fell to the lowest level in 30 months, and, with the manufacturing PMI nearing 50, the prospect is for further weakness this quarter. Inventories continue to rise and, in North Asia, to levels last seen in 2005. Combined with the sharp fall in exports in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, export pricing in back in deflationary territory, putting further upward pressure on real interest rates.  Meanwhile, January retail sales saw the largest month-on-month decline in over three years as department stores saw fewer Chinese tourists over the New Year.  Equity markets are living on 'borrowed time'.  Source: Japan AnalyticsHOLD FOR NOW - This bear market rally is two months old and is maturing. The Value Traded ratio is below trend again, the RSI is neutral, and the Toraku is signalling caution. We expect another month of liquidity/weak Yen-driven strength before the economic realities begin to prevail.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP), Parco (8251 JP), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP), Nichias (5393 JP), Raksul (4384 JP), Daito Trust (1878 JP), and Benefit One (2412 JP).   

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

Japan

Raksul, Inc. provides Internet based services. The Company mainly offers net printing, net transportation, and other services. Raksul provides services in Japan.

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Raksul Inc (4384 JP)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan’s Corporate IT Operations Firm JOSYS Nets US$32M Funding, to Expand to Singapore

JOSYS is a B2B platform that streamlines corporate IT operations through automated management of IT devices and SaaS applications

e27

TOPIX April-End Rebalance - The OTHER Trades

The April TOPIX Rebalance is about $1.5bn one way, with two thirds of that on Liquidity Factor changes, one-third on normal FFW changes. Toshiba,...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021

TOPIX does an annual exercise to adjust Liquidity Factor. The time for trades around that is upon us. This insight looks at the best trade around...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan’s Corporate IT Operations Firm JOSYS Nets US$32M Funding, to Expand to Singapore

JOSYS is a B2B platform that streamlines corporate IT operations through automated management of IT devices and SaaS applications

e27

TOPIX April-End Rebalance - The OTHER Trades

The April TOPIX Rebalance is about $1.5bn one way, with two thirds of that on Liquidity Factor changes, one-third on normal FFW changes. Toshiba,...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

DAILY STATS PERCENTAGES - 75% of quarterly results, 75% of annual forecasts/revisions and 50% of interim forecasts have negative Scores....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Liquidity Rules

LIQUIDITY RULES - Despite the continuous stream of negative macroeconomic news from Japan and other economies, financial liquidity trends are the...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.