Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Raffles Medical reported 2H2022 and full-year 2022 results today. Full-year revenue increased 5.9% YoY to SG$766.5m (vs consensus $774.7m) and OP increased 61.4% YoY to $195.8m (vs consensus $170m).</li>
<li>Despite Covid-19 related revenues tapering off and China under lockdown during 2H2022, Raffles’ earnings saw a boost from Singapore reopening borders and recovery in foreign patient volume.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts are too conservative and does not reflect the recovery in demand for Raffles’ healthcare services in Singapore and China (post reversing of zero-Covid policy).</li>
</ul>


Raffles Medical reported 2H2022 and full-year 2022 results today. Full-year revenue increased 5.9% YoY to SG$766.5m (vs consensus $774.7m) and OP increased 61.4% YoY to $195.8m (vs consensus $170m).
Despite Covid-19 related revenues tapering off and China under lockdown during 2H2022, Raffles’ earnings saw a boost from Singapore reopening borders and recovery in foreign patient volume.
Consensus forecasts are too conservative and does not reflect the recovery in demand for Raffles’ healthcare services in Singapore and China (post reversing of zero-Covid policy).


Raffles Medical: Consensus Too Conservative and Warrants an Upgrade

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>New leadership with expertise in Australia could lead to value unlocking for Australian assets. </li>
<li>Q3 22 ridership has gone up to 85% and 83% of pre-COVID level for NEL and DTL while in Q3 21 was only 49% for NEL and 43% for DTL.</li>
<li>The reopening has brought tourists back and increased ridership level while China's reopening has just started and is not yet priced in. </li>
</ul>


New leadership with expertise in Australia could lead to value unlocking for Australian assets. 
Q3 22 ridership has gone up to 85% and 83% of pre-COVID level for NEL and DTL while in Q3 21 was only 49% for NEL and 43% for DTL.
The reopening has brought tourists back and increased ridership level while China's reopening has just started and is not yet priced in. 


CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Six stocks remain, and eight stocks added to our portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 25%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Six stocks remain, and eight stocks added to our portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 177% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 25%


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-medical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7441:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Medical (SMG SP)</a> received a voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director). The offer is cash (S$0.37) or scrip (1 new share in the offeror per share).</li>
<li>The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition. Irrevocables, which will take the scrip option, represent 51.67% of outstanding shares.</li>
<li>The offer is light, but the offeror reserves the right to reduce the acceptance condition to a lower level (above 50%). Therefore, this offer will likely turn unconditional. </li>
</ul>



Singapore Medical (SMG SP) received a voluntary conditional offer from management (chairman, CEO, exec director). The offer is cash (S$0.37) or scrip (1 new share in the offeror per share).
The key condition is a 90% minimum acceptance condition. Irrevocables, which will take the scrip option, represent 51.67% of outstanding shares.
The offer is light, but the offeror reserves the right to reduce the acceptance condition to a lower level (above 50%). Therefore, this offer will likely turn unconditional. 


Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management

<ul>
<li>KKR cannot improve the terms of its offer but left the door open by stating that a deal can be quickly closed if the Board is willing to reset expectations.</li>
<li>The transaction is stuck in an impasse as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a> will not recommend KKR’s offer until it is improved, and KKR says it cannot improve terms.</li>
<li>The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are trading slightly below the undisturbed price and are attractive on fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


KKR cannot improve the terms of its offer but left the door open by stating that a deal can be quickly closed if the Board is willing to reset expectations.
The transaction is stuck in an impasse as Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU) will not recommend KKR’s offer until it is improved, and KKR says it cannot improve terms.
The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are trading slightly below the undisturbed price and are attractive on fundamentals.


Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit

Singapore

Raffles Medical Group Limited is a health care provider.  The Company operates medical clinics, imaging centers, and medical laboratories.  Raffles provides general and specialized medical, medical evacuation, medical advisory, and dental treatment services.

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Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP)

Raffles Medical: Consensus Too Conservative and Warrants an Upgrade

Raffles reported 2022 results which saw strong improvement in margins driven by Singapore reopening and recovery in foreign patient volume....

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Comfortdelgro (CD): Now or Never

The share price is lagging behind peers while operating numbers gradually improving. Reopening leads to an increase in ridership, China's reopening...

Henry Soediarko

The Stocks to Own in ASEAN – Vol. 41

We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Six stocks remain, eight stocks added.

A. Stotz Investment Research

Singapore Medical’s Light VGO Offer from Top Management

The offer is light, but the offeror reserves the right to reduce the acceptance condition to a lower level (above 50%). At the last close, the...

Arun George

Ramsay’s Bait-And-Switch KKR Offer Heads for the Exit

The peers’ shares have been, on average, flat since the undisturbed date. The shares are below the undisturbed price and are attractive on...

Arun George

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