Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.</li>
<li>I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. </li>
<li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.</span></li>
</ul>


ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday.
I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. 
So, without further adieu, let’s dive into the most important IP company in the world.


<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entegris-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12493" rel="noopener">Entegris Inc (ENTG US)</a> - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astera-labs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40921" rel="noopener">Astera Labs (ALAB US)</a> - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</li><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lattice-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7855" rel="noopener">Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US)</a> - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.</li></ul>

Entegris Inc (ENTG US) - Memory spending is happening next year, but MSI remains weak.Astera Labs (ALAB US) - This is now the second way to play a levered Trainium ramp, as they have extensive content with Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC US) - Standard kitchen sink; I like the stock long-term.

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Qualcomm has reported its Q1 fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting robust revenue growth across various business segments.</li><li>In the first fiscal quarter, non-GAAP revenues reached $9.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.75 which is above the high end of the company's guidance.</li><li>Healthy Android demand coupled with momentum in automotive drove revenues of $8.4 billion from the chipset business, while the licensing business posted revenues of $1.5 billion.</li></ul>

Qualcomm has reported its Q1 fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting robust revenue growth across various business segments.In the first fiscal quarter, non-GAAP revenues reached $9.9 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.75 which is above the high end of the company's guidance.Healthy Android demand coupled with momentum in automotive drove revenues of $8.4 billion from the chipset business, while the licensing business posted revenues of $1.5 billion.

Qualcomm Incorporated: Heavy Investments in On-Device AI and IoT And 5 Major Drivers

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

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ARM IPO Breakdown

ARM prices this Wednesday and trades on Thursday. I have a lot of thoughts. This will be a great post if you want to learn about ARM. So, without...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings: ENTG, ALAB, LSCC, SITM, QCOM, MCHP, WOLF, ARM, ACLS, AAOI, ANET, LITE, COHR

What a week (I’m a bit late on this)! I wanted to give a quick overview of all the companies that reported last week. Lattice Semiconductor -...

Fabricated Knowledge

Qualcomm Incorporated: Heavy Investments in On-Device AI and IoT And 5 Major Drivers

Qualcomm has reported its Q1 fiscal year 2024 results, highlighting robust revenue growth across various business segments. In the first fiscal...

Baptista Research

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