Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a> has been the stocks to benefit from the COVID-19 induced lockdown as Singaporeans are allowed to WFH instead of WFO thus they do more grocery shopping and also stockpiled in case of the reduced food supply due to the longer than expected pandemic. The company has recorded a substantial and never-seen-before YoY revenue growth <em>(Q1: 30.7%, Q2: 75.8%, and Q3: 28.9%)</em>. </p>
<p>The tides seemed to have turned though:</p>
<ul>
<li>Singapore statistics bureau reported that the revenue increase from supermarkets and convenience stores has slowed down while F&amp;B sales have grown from SGD 397 million to SGD 629 million <em>QoQ</em>, reflecting the change in consumers' behavior to start going out again. </li>
</ul>
<p>Although its valuation has peaked in Q2, Sheng Siong's share price has not decreased by much thus it is the right time book profit as the large revenues growth is unlikely to sustain going forward. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/873/original/image_38476675561605505587235.png?1605505587" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171873"></figure>

Sheng Siong (SSG SP) has been the stocks to benefit from the COVID-19 induced lockdown as Singaporeans are allowed to WFH instead of WFO thus they do more grocery shopping and also stockpiled in case of the reduced food supply due to the longer than expected pandemic. The company has recorded a substantial and never-seen-before YoY revenue growth (Q1: 30.7%, Q2: 75.8%, and Q3: 28.9%). 
The tides seemed to have turned though:

Singapore statistics bureau reported that the revenue increase from supermarkets and convenience stores has slowed down while F&amp;B sales have grown from SGD 397 million to SGD 629 million QoQ, reflecting the change in consumers' behavior to start going out again. 

Although its valuation has peaked in Q2, Sheng Siong's share price has not decreased by much thus it is the right time book profit as the large revenues growth is unlikely to sustain going forward. 


Sheng Siong (SSG): Sustainable High Growth?

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/agong-asserts-himself-preventing-change-of-pm-but-disallowing-emergency-rule" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44572" rel="noopener">Agong Asserts Himself, Preventing Change of PM but Disallowing Emergency Rule,</a> CrossASEAN Chief Economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612" rel="noopener">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> comments on the ongoing political upheaval in Malaysia. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/trouble-down-south-it-s-not-just-the-virus" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44698" rel="noopener">Trouble Down South: It's Not Just the Virus,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dr-jim-walker" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628" rel="noopener">Dr. Jim Walker</a> gives his prescriptions on why South East Asia has been such a poor performer this year. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-1-key-themes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40842" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 1): Key Themes,</a> out Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his thoughts for the outlook for the Thai market next year. </p><h3>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h3><p>In his Indonesian Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matahari-department-store-lppf-ij-too-early-to-be-early" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44460" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Too Early to Be Early,</a> Cross ASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> circles back to the country's largest department store operator post its recent results. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/akr-corporindo-akra-ij-great-omnibus-expectations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44611" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations,</a> CrossASEAN insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> after its recent 3Q2020 results that continued to demonstrate its resilience, with an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.</p><p>In a Malaysian Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ql-resources-ql-take-profit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44598" rel="noopener">QL Resources (QL): Take Profit?,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> revisits this commodity turned retail play, through its Family Mart business. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/far-east-hospitality-trust-feht-beneficiary-of-opening-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44649" rel="noopener">Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Beneficiary of Opening Up,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Henry Soediarko</a> takes an initial look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-east-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP),</a> the only hospitality REIT in Singapore with a 100% domestic hospitality exposure and a higher fixed rental component, offering a defensive exposure during this difficult market environment. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bca-profit-returns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44605" rel="noopener">BCA – Profit Returns,</a> banking specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/daniel-tabbush" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:12" rel="noopener">Daniel Tabbush</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and finds the bank clawing back some of the ROA it lost during 2Q2020 in the most recent quarter. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bts-potential-positive-catalysts-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44691" rel="noopener">BTS: Potential Positive Catalysts Ahead,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> revisit this Thai transportation play with a more positive slant.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pttep-4q20-earnings-to-soften-from-lower-asp-and-volume-sales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44740" rel="noopener">PTTEP: 4Q20 Earnings to Soften from Lower ASP and Volume Sales,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> assess the prospects for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-exploration-and-production-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:261:1" rel="noopener">PTT E&amp;P (PTTEP TB)</a> going into the end of the year.</p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In this Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japfa-comfeed-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44743" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results,</a> Senior Credit Analyst<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> discusses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)'</a>s 9M2020 results, which came in worse than expected (following a dismal Q22020), as the impact of COVID-19 reduced consumers' purchasing power and hit demand. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pan-brothers-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44708" rel="noopener">Pan Brothers - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lucror Analytics</a> zeros in on the Pan Brothers’ Q3 and 9M2020 earnings. Pan Brothers’ cash flow generation remained poor, and it continued to report large working capital weakness. It appears unlikely that Pan Brothers will be able to increase the size of its syndication facility, given the low commitment from banks at the moment. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  
Macro InsightsIn Agong Asserts Himself, Preventing Change of PM but Disallowing Emergency Rule, CrossASEAN Chief Economist Prasenjit K. Basu comments on the ongoing political upheaval in Malaysia. In Trouble Down South: It's Not Just the Virus,Dr. Jim Walker gives his prescriptions on why South East Asia has been such a poor performer this year. In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 1): Key Themes, out Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his thoughts for the outlook for the Thai market next year. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn his Indonesian Insight, Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Too Early to Be Early, Cross ASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh circles back to the country's largest department store operator post its recent results. In AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) - Great Omnibus Expectations, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) after its recent 3Q2020 results that continued to demonstrate its resilience, with an across the board improvement in margins, despite a decline in sales.In a Malaysian Insight, QL Resources (QL): Take Profit?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko revisits this commodity turned retail play, through its Family Mart business. In Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Beneficiary of Opening Up, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko takes an initial look at Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP), the only hospitality REIT in Singapore with a 100% domestic hospitality exposure and a higher fixed rental component, offering a defensive exposure during this difficult market environment. In BCA – Profit Returns, banking specialist Daniel Tabbush revisits Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and finds the bank clawing back some of the ROA it lost during 2Q2020 in the most recent quarter. In BTS: Potential Positive Catalysts Ahead,Country Group revisit this Thai transportation play with a more positive slant.In PTTEP: 4Q20 Earnings to Soften from Lower ASP and Volume Sales, our friends at Country Group assess the prospects for PTT E&amp;P (PTTEP TB) going into the end of the year.Credit InsightsIn this Insight, Japfa Comfeed - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results, Senior Credit Analyst Trung Nguyen discusses Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)'s 9M2020 results, which came in worse than expected (following a dismal Q22020), as the impact of COVID-19 reduced consumers' purchasing power and hit demand. In Pan Brothers - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results,Lucror Analytics zeros in on the Pan Brothers’ Q3 and 9M2020 earnings. Pan Brothers’ cash flow generation remained poor, and it continued to report large working capital weakness. It appears unlikely that Pan Brothers will be able to increase the size of its syndication facility, given the low commitment from banks at the moment. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - South East Asia Lags, the Bank's Return, and Nimble Staples

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK) </a>share price outperformance in the past 3 years has made it to be one of the darlings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> outside of the glove names. The high expectations from investors have pushed the market valuation to reach 64x PER, a 65% premium to its Malaysian peer - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7-eleven-malaysia-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3890:1" rel="noopener">7 eleven malaysia holdings (SEM MK)</a> although the latter has higher debt and sells various SKUs, unlike Family Mart that focuses on fresh food. </div>
<div></div>
<div>
<div>Assuming all 300 stores are opened and profitable, the company's forward PER is around 25-45x;  higher than the regional peers' average valuation at 24x; which likely to suggest investors who have made a decent return from holding <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> to book some profit. </div>
<div></div>
</div>


Ql Resources (QLG MK) share price outperformance in the past 3 years has made it to be one of the darlings of Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX) outside of the glove names. The high expectations from investors have pushed the market valuation to reach 64x PER, a 65% premium to its Malaysian peer - 7 eleven malaysia holdings (SEM MK) although the latter has higher debt and sells various SKUs, unlike Family Mart that focuses on fresh food. 


Assuming all 300 stores are opened and profitable, the company's forward PER is around 25-45x;  higher than the regional peers' average valuation at 24x; which likely to suggest investors who have made a decent return from holding Ql Resources (QLG MK) to book some profit. 



Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shandong Fengxiang / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> (SF), the second-largest fully integrated white-feathered broiler producer in the PRC, raised US$150m in its Hong Kong IPO.</p><div><p>I had looked at the company background in my previous note,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shandong-fengxiang-ipo-looks-cheap-but-is-at-peak-margins" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Shandong Fengxiang IPO - Looks Cheap but Is at Peak Margins</a>.</p></div><div><p>In those note, I'll run through the deal dynamics and provide a table with the implied p/e at different share price levels. </p></div>

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) (SF), the second-largest fully integrated white-feathered broiler producer in the PRC, raised US$150m in its Hong Kong IPO.I had looked at the company background in my previous note, Shandong Fengxiang IPO - Looks Cheap but Is at Peak Margins.In those note, I'll run through the deal dynamics and provide a table with the implied p/e at different share price levels. 

Shandong Fengxiang IPO Trading - Lack of Over-Allocation Won't Help Post Deal Performance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bursa Malaysia. The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective 22 June and the changes will be announced on 4 June. Passive funds will need to trade at the close on 19 June.</p><p>The data to determine the inclusions and exclusions uses price from the close of trading on the Monday 4 weeks prior to the effective date. With today being a Malaysia holiday, prices used should be from the close of trading on Friday, 22 May.</p><p>As of the close of trading on Friday, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-hldgs-bhd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1">Malaysia Airports Hldgs (MAHB MK)</a> as a high probability delete at rank 38 while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekom-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:943:1">Telekom Malaysia (T MK)</a> is ranked 24th and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-industrial-trust" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40:1"></a>should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>.</p>

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bursa Malaysia. The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective 22 June and the changes will be announced on 4 June. Passive funds will need to trade at the close on 19 June.The data to determine the inclusions and exclusions uses price from the close of trading on the Monday 4 weeks prior to the effective date. With today being a Malaysia holiday, prices used should be from the close of trading on Friday, 22 May.As of the close of trading on Friday, we see Malaysia Airports Hldgs (MAHB MK) as a high probability delete at rank 38 while Telekom Malaysia (T MK) is ranked 24th and should be added to the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX).

KLCI Rebalance Preview - Telekom Expecting a Call

Malaysia

QL Resources Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures and sells fishmeal, surimi, and surimi based products, distributes animal feed raw materials, animal health products, and layer farming, and cultivates oil palm and crude palm oil milling.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Ql Resources (QLG MK)

Sheng Siong (SSG): Sustainable High Growth?

Singapore statistics reported that the revenue increase from supermarkets, CSs has slowed down while F&B sales have grown 60% QoQ, reflecting a...

Henry Soediarko

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - South East Asia Lags, the Bank's Return, and Nimble Staples

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East...

Angus Mackintosh

QL Resources (QL): Take Profit?

Assuming all 300 stores are opened and profitable, the company's forward PER is around 25-45x; higher than the regional peers' average valuation...

Henry Soediarko

Shandong Fengxiang IPO Trading - Lack of Over-Allocation Won't Help Post Deal Performance

Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) (SF), the second-largest fully integrated white-feathered broiler producer in the PRC, raised US$150m in its Hong Kong...

Sumeet Singh

KLCI Rebalance Preview - Telekom Expecting a Call

The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (Klci) (FBMKLCI INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bursa Malaysia. The index has 30 stocks and is a free float...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)