Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Malaysia's reopening play for the consumption sector is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12647:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Malaysia Bhd (HEIM MK)</a> .</li>
<li>Q1 22 revenue has bounced back to Q4 19 level and higher than Q1 2019 by 33% before taking into account the potential upside since the reopening of the nightlife.</li>
<li>Compared to other consumer names in Malaysia such as Carlsberg Malaysia, British American Tobacco, Nestle (Malaysia), and QL Resources, Heineken Malaysia is trading at a discount.</li>
</ul>


Malaysia's reopening play for the consumption sector is Heineken Malaysia Bhd (HEIM MK) .
Q1 22 revenue has bounced back to Q4 19 level and higher than Q1 2019 by 33% before taking into account the potential upside since the reopening of the nightlife.
Compared to other consumer names in Malaysia such as Carlsberg Malaysia, British American Tobacco, Nestle (Malaysia), and QL Resources, Heineken Malaysia is trading at a discount.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/99-speed-mart-retail-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40977:1" rel="noopener">99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK)</a>, a leading grocery retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/99-speed-mart-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:156002" rel="noopener">99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on lacklustre outlet KPIs, indications of margin pressure, significant pre-IPO dividends and a significant secondary offering.</li>
</ul>



99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK), a leading grocery retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.
In 99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on lacklustre outlet KPIs, indications of margin pressure, significant pre-IPO dividends and a significant secondary offering.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/99-speed-mart-retail-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40977:1" rel="noopener">99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK)</a>, a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.    </li>
<li>99 Speed Mart is Malaysia's largest mini-market player and leading grocery retailer, holding a market share of 40.1% and 11.6% in 2023, respectively. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising market share, robust revenue growth underpinned by SSSG, a store expansion-driven growth strategy, profitability, cash generation, and modest leverage.   </li>
</ul>



99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings (99SPD MK), a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, is seeking to raise US$530 million at RM1.65 per share.    
99 Speed Mart is Malaysia's largest mini-market player and leading grocery retailer, holding a market share of 40.1% and 11.6% in 2023, respectively. 
The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising market share, robust revenue growth underpinned by SSSG, a store expansion-driven growth strategy, profitability, cash generation, and modest leverage.   


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ql-resources-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11221:1" rel="noopener">Ql Resources (QLG MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hartalega-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10230:1" rel="noopener">Hartalega Holdings (HART MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/top-glove-corp-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20759:1" rel="noopener">Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuala-lumpur-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22913:1" rel="noopener">FBMKLCI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.</li>
</ul>



Ql Resources (QLG MK) and AMMB Holdings (AMM MK) could replace Hartalega Holdings (HART MK) and Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX).
If the changes go through, glove makers will have no representation in the index. At one point in 2020, glove makers made up nearly 20% of the FBMKLCI INDEX.
One-Way turnover at the rebalance will be around 3% and the impact of passive trading will be higher on the inclusions as compared to the deletions.


KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

Malaysia

QL Resources Berhad is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures and sells fishmeal, surimi, and surimi based products, distributes animal feed raw materials, animal health products, and layer farming, and cultivates oil palm and crude palm oil milling.

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Ql Resources (QLG MK)

Heineken Malaysia (HEIM): Brewing

Revenue bounced to pre-COVID level due to the management's expertise in navigating the difficult period during the lockdown, the company will...

Henry Soediarko

99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on lacklustre outlet KPIs, indications of margin pressure, significant pre-IPO dividends and a significant secondary offering.

Arun George

99 Speed Mart IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a large TAM, rising market share, robust revenue growth underpinned by SSSG, a store expansion-driven growth strategy,...

Arun George

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

KLCI Index Rebalance Preview: No More Glovemakers in the Index (Or How the Mighty Have Fallen)

QL Resources and AMMB could replace Top Glove and Hartalega in the KLCI. That would mean no glove makers in the index, down from a near 20% index...

Brian Freitas

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