Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qiniu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33236:1" rel="noopener">Qiniu (QNIU US)</a>  is a leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) provider in China whose client base includes <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> , OPPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tal-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1124:1" rel="noopener">TAL Education (TAL US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:714:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)</a> and Xiaohongshu. The company’s platform offers media and data cloud services and the company has filed for an IPO to list its share in the US and has set a placeholder indication to raise about US$100m.

Qiniu (QNIU US)  is a leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) provider in China whose client base includes Bilibili Inc (BILI US) , OPPO, TAL Education (TAL US) , China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH) and Xiaohongshu. The company’s platform offers media and data cloud services and the company has filed for an IPO to list its share in the US and has set a placeholder indication to raise about US$100m.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qiniu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33236:1" rel="noopener">Qiniu (QNIU US)</a> is China's leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider. Qiniu primarily offers Media Platform-as-a-Service (MPaaS) for intelligent media solutions and Data Platform-as-a-Service (DPaaS) for machine data solutions. It is China's largest pure-play PaaS provider with a 4.4% market share and China's largest independent MPaaS provider with a 7.5% market share by revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Qiniu is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (17.7% of outstanding shares), Matrix Partners (8.0%) Qiming Funds (6.8%). Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. <div class="content-highlight">At first glance, Qiniu should be well-positioned to benefit from this sizeable China's PaaS market opportunity. The strong dollar-based net expansion rate and shift to profitability (based on the company’s adjusted EBITDA metric) and cash generation in 2020 suggests that Qiniu is heading in the right direction. However, a closer look reveals concerning developments on several fronts. In the current market where sentiment on Chinese US listings is weak, we think that the negatives in the Qiniu story warrant a pass.  </div>

Qiniu (QNIU US) is China's leading cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) provider. Qiniu primarily offers Media Platform-as-a-Service (MPaaS) for intelligent media solutions and Data Platform-as-a-Service (DPaaS) for machine data solutions. It is China's largest pure-play PaaS provider with a 4.4% market share and China's largest independent MPaaS provider with a 7.5% market share by revenue in 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.Qiniu is backed by Alibaba Group (BABA US) (17.7% of outstanding shares), Matrix Partners (8.0%) Qiming Funds (6.8%). Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. At first glance, Qiniu should be well-positioned to benefit from this sizeable China's PaaS market opportunity. The strong dollar-based net expansion rate and shift to profitability (based on the company’s adjusted EBITDA metric) and cash generation in 2020 suggests that Qiniu is heading in the right direction. However, a closer look reveals concerning developments on several fronts. In the current market where sentiment on Chinese US listings is weak, we think that the negatives in the Qiniu story warrant a pass.  

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On Friday, Bloomberg reported that China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) was weighing tighter rules for Chinese companies listing overseas which could have an impact on upcoming large IPOs such as ByteDance and Didi Chuxing. 
However, shortly after, on the same day, CSRC came forward to deny it. While the rumor has been dispelled quickly, one should keep in mind that it wasn’t too long ago that the SEC tightened its restrictions on Chinese companies as it sought public comments for the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA). The push and pull factors that we highlighted in our China ADRs note last year seem to remain strong with both sides wanting to limit Chinese companies listing in the US.


JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 

JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates and Fine-Tuning Valuation 
JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Index Implications - It Will Cut Close
JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Bull/​Bear Case + Valuation Sensitivity

SF REIT launched its IPO bookbuild this week. Books were reportedly covered and will close this coming Monday. The company will debut on 17th May. 

SF REIT Pre-IPO -One trick pony, who’s not doing the trick.
SF REIT IPO - Don’t See a Clear Reason to Buy

Central China Management (PHIP filed) and New Hope Service have also started premarketing and both companies are looking to raise up to US$150m each. We also heard that Betta Pharma will seek approval next week. 
This week’s notable filings include ANE in Hong Kong (US$500m), Nuvoco Vistas and Chemplast Sanmar in India (US$680m and US$450m, respectively) and CTOS Holdings in Malaysia (US$290m). 
This week, we initiated coverage on Anjuke (ANJ HK), a real estate information and transaction service provider, and shared our preliminary thoughts on the valuation of Angelalign Technology (AAT HK).

Anjuke Pre-IPO - Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments
Angelalign (时代天使) Pre-IPO: Deserves a Premium to Peers

In the US, Waterdrop Inc. (WDH US), despite closing books a day earlier and pricing its NYSE IPO at the top end, closed almost 20% below its IPO price.

Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Strong Backers
Waterdrop Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Scandals, Shutdowns, Competing with Giants, Regulation 
Waterdrop IPO - Valuation Has Nearly Tripled over the past Year
Waterdrop IPO Trading - Ant’s Mutual Aid Admissions Showcase the Regulatory Overhang

We initiated coverage on Ximalaya (XIMA US) and Qiniu (QNIU US) which filed their prospectus last week. Both companies are in the midst of premarketing.

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening
Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives
Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn’t Warrant a Premium

For Hello Inc. (1883864D US), Ming Lu went on the ground and compared Hello Inc’s bike sharing services against its competitors like Meituan (3690 HK) and Didi Bike (青桔单车). 

Hello Inc (哈罗出行) Pre-IPO - Nowhere near Being Sustainable
Hello (HI): Competition on the Ground, Hard to Reach Profitability

In the Philippines, Monde Nissin Corp (0191881D PM) bookbuild is scheduled to open on Tuesday. It was reported that the company has already drawn over US$1bn of orders from investors and is in talks with over a dozen cornerstone investors. 

Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Positives - High Market Share
Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - The Negatives - High Debt, Div Payments, Floundering MA
Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Food Business
Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison for Meat Alternative Business
Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation
Monde Nissin Pre-IPO - Not Cheap but Sensible

In Thailand, Ngern Tid Lor (NTL TB) will trade on Monday. Demand for the IPO had likely been good considering that, last month, it closed its bookbuild five days early and priced at the top-end.

Ngern Tid Lor IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing 
There is a flurry of IPOs coming to market in Australia. Aurora Healthcare, Australia Venue Company, and Keypath Education have kicked off their IPOs this week and will launch bookbuild this coming Monday. We will publish on Aurora Healthcare and Australia Venue Company by Monday.
Placements took a backseat this week. There was only Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP)’s placement in Singapore. This marks their second placement in under six months. This time the REIT raised US$315m to acquire the remaining 75% stake in Galaxis, in the one-north precinct. 

AREIT Placement - Expected to Be DPU Accretive but the Acquisition Might Take a While
AREIT - Paying for Acquisition with Only Equity Doesn’t Add Up, DPU to Fall by 3-4%
Ascendas REIT Placement - Multiple Acquisitions to Be Made, Starting From US Office Properties
Ascendas REIT Placement - Smaller than the Last Deal, Should Be Accretive as Well

Credits to Clarence Chu for helping out with the note.
Accuracy Rate:Our overall accuracy rate is 74.1% for IPOs and 67.3% for Placements (Performance measurement criteria is explained at the end of the note)New IPO filings this week  

ANE (Cayman) Inc. (Hong Kong, US$500m)
Ronshine Service (Hong Kong, US$100m)
Nuvoco Vistas (India, US$680m)
Chemplast Sanmar Limited (India, US$450m)
CTOS Holding (Malaysia, US$290m)
News on Upcoming IPOs  
Hong Kong/China
China Logistics Firm ANE Files for Hong Kong IPO
JD Logistics pre-markets HK IPO
New Hope Service pre-markets US$150m IPO
Li Ruigang Starts Countdown to IPO of CMC Inc. in Hong Kong
Hangzhou Xpower Tech seeks US$300m HK IPO
Central China Management to pre-market HK IPO next week
Ronshine Service Files for Hong Kong Initial Public Offering
Books covered for SF REIT HK IPO
Chinese Ride-Hailing Giant Didi Chuxing Considers Spinning Off Its Community Group Buying Business After IPO
China Telecom targeting Rmb54.4bn Shanghai IPO
Shanghai Electric Wind Power plans Rmb2.9bn Star IPO
InnoCare Pharma kicks off A-share IPO tutorial
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) prices Rmb22.7bn Shanghai IPO
China Is Said to Mull Tighter Rules for Firms Listing Overseas
CHINA'S CSRC DENIES MULLING TIGHTER RULES FOR OFFSHORE LISTINGS
US/China ADRs
Quwan Network Tech mulls US$300m US IPO
Ximalaya, Qiniu pre-market US IPOs
Didi Chuxing adds banks to US IPO
E-Commerce Service Valued at $235 Million Targets U.S. IPO
Ant-Backed Snowball Finance Said to Plan $300 Million U.S. IPO
Tencent-backed VIPKid mulls US$500m US IPO
India
Indian auto classified firm CarTrade to soon file for $266m IPO
Robotics company GreyOrange eyes $600 million via US listing
Chemplast Sanmar files DRHP to raise $466m via IPO
Tata Power Mulling $473 Million Renewable Energy Unit IPO
India Pesticides, KIMS get Sebi nod to launch IPOs
PowerGrid InvIT IPO subscribed 4.83 times
Wellness Forever plans up to Rs12bn IPO
Others
Aussie IPOs gather pace
Aurora Healthcare Australia seeks listing via A$415m ASX IPO
Keypath Education plans A$249m ASX listing
US pokies company Scientific Games mulls ASX-listing, hires bankers
KKR to list Australian majority-owned pub group seeking A$352m
Bitcoin miner Iris is said to weigh Australia’s first SPAC deal
Australian Venue markets A$352m ASX IPO
Malaysia’s CTOS files for M$1.2bn IPO
Malaysian PE firm Creador looking to sell 40% of its stake in CTOS Digital via IPO
Monde Nissin cooks up record Philippine IPO
Hyundai Heavy applies for KRX approval of W1trn IPO
A Twosome Place invites banks on IPO
Analysis on Upcoming IPOs

Name
Insight

Hong Kong

Anjuke
Anjuke Pre-IPO - Mixed (Positive and Negative) Developments 


Angelalign
Angelalign (时代天使) Pre-IPO: Medical Device Player with Consumer Feature 


Angelalign
Angelalign (时代天使) Pre-IPO: Deserves a Premium to Peers 


Betta Pharma
Betta Pharma (贝达医药) A+H: Tier 2 Player Struggled to Break Out 


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: How Jinri Toutiao Paves The Way for a Bigger Empire (Part 1)


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) IPO: Tiktok the No.1 Short Video App for a Good Reason (Part 2)


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: How Has It Done in 1H? 


ByteDance
ByteDance: The Unlisted Company’s Video Apps Leading the Market and Threatening Internet Giants 


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Why Facebook Should Worry About TikTok 


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO - Globally the Most Downloaded App for Jan 2020 Driven by India 


ByteDance
ByteDance (字节跳动) Pre-IPO: Global Ambition Meets Regulatory Challenges 


Chaoju
Chaoju Eye Care (朝聚眼科) Pre-IPO: Growth Prospect Far from Being Impressive 


Dida
Dida Pre-IPO - Making Hay While Big Brother Retreats 


Dida
Dida Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and First Stab at Valuation 


Dida
Dida Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Lagging in Scale, Leading in Profitability 


Edding Grp
Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 


Edding Grp
Edding Group (亿腾医药) Pre-IPO: Notes from Latest Financials and Its Related Party 


Hanyu
Shanghai Hanyu (捍宇医疗) Pre-IPO: Not a Straight-A but Listing at Right Time 


Intco Med
Intco Medical (英科医疗) A+H: From China No.1 to Global No. 1 


Kilcoy
Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - Rapid Earnings Growth on the Back of Margin Improvement 


JD Logistics
JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Tethered to JD Group and Looking Beyond 


JD Logistics
JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation 


JD Logistics
JD Logistics (京东物流) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Shielded from Price War 


Kilcoy
Kilcoy Global Foods Pre-IPO - A Lot of Things Still Remain Unexplained 


Kindstar
Kindstar (康圣环球) Pre-IPO: Issues with Scalability 


Kindstar
Kindstar (康圣环球) Pre-IPO: Is It Worth the Premium? 


RemeGen

RemeGen (荣昌生物) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation of RC18 and RC48 


Bio-heart

Shanghai Bio-Heart (上海百心安) Pre-IPO: Needs a Long Runway 


Toplist

Toplist China Pre-IPO - Overwhelmingly More Negatives than Positives 


Tasly

Tasly Biopharm (天士力生物) IPO: Visible Growth from Approved Drug but Lacks Blockbusters 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO -App Walk Through - The Online Medical Directory and More 


WeDoctor

WeDoctor (微医) Pre-IPO - A More Focused Online Medical Svc Provider than Ping An Good Doctor 


WeDoctor

We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Picking Its Battles Wisely 


WeDoctor

We Doctor (微医) Pre-IPO - Forecasts, Early Thoughts on Valuation, and Acquisition Gripes 


Youran Dairy

China Youran Dairy(悠然牧业) Pre-IPO - A Leader Pulling Ahead in a Fragmented Market 

India

Aadhar Housing

Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO - Decent past Growth but Comes with Weird Disclosures 


ASK

ASK Investment Managers Pre-IPO - Riding on a Wave of Wealth 


Anmol Ind
Anmol Industries Pre-IPO Quick Take - No Growth, Generous Payments to Founders


Bharat Hotel
Bharat Hotels Pre-IPO - Catching up with Peers 


Bajaj En
Bajaj Energy Pre-IPO - Supposed to Deliver Steady Performance if Only Its Sole Client Would Let It 


CMS Info
CMS Info Systems Pre-IPO - When a PE Sells to Another PE... Only One Gets the Timing Right


Crystal Crop
Crystal Crop Protection Pre-IPO - DRHP Raises More Questions than in Answers


ESAF SFB

ESAF Small Finance Bank Pre-IPO - Growing Fast but Remains Highly Dependant on a Related Party 


Flemingo 
Flemingo Travel Retail Pre-IPO - Its a Different Business in Every Country


Emami Cem

Emami Cement Pre-IPO - Still in Ramp Up Phase but Shares Pledge Might Lead to an Early IPO 


NSE
NSE IPO Preview- Not Only Fast..its Risky and Expensive


NSE
National Stock Exchange Pre-IPO Review - Bigger, Better, Stronger but a Little Too Fast for Some


LIC

Life Insurance Corporation of India Pre-IPO - Early Take on India's Largest IPO 


Penna Cem

Penna Cement - Aggressive Expansion Plans Even Though Past Performance Has Been Tepid 


PNB Met
PNB Metlife Pre-IPO Quick Take - Doesn't Stack up Well Versus Its Larger Peers


Samhi Hotels

Samhi Hotels Pre-IPO - Assets and Borrowings Are Growing, but Earnings Haven’t Kept Pace 


Sona Comstar

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures 

Malaysia

QSR
QSR Brands Pre-IPO - As Healthy as Fast Food

The U.S.

Hello Inc

Hello Inc (哈罗出行) Pre-IPO - Nowhere near Being Sustainable 


Qiniu

Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn't Warrant a Premium 


Ximalaya

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Positives - A Whole Lot of Listening 


Ximalaya

Ximalaya Pre-IPO - The Negatives 



ECM Weekly (9th May 2021) - JD Logistics, Anjuke, Waterdrop, Ximalaya, Qiniu, Monde Nissin

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Qiniu Cloud, a leading Platform as a service (PaaS) provider in China, is looking to raise up to USD 500 million via a US listing. In this note, we look at the company's main value proposition of its media and data PaaS products. We think the company does have an interesting product offering that benefits the customers. Having said that we think the company's growth has been lacklustre as compared to the industry average. We are also concerned about its concentration in the live video streaming market. Its customer base for the data segment has not been expanding. The company has a decent investor backing but we think given its small size and slow growth, it should trade at a discount to listed cloud peers.

Qiniu Cloud, a leading Platform as a service (PaaS) provider in China, is looking to raise up to USD 500 million via a US listing. In this note, we look at the company's main value proposition of its media and data PaaS products. We think the company does have an interesting product offering that benefits the customers. Having said that we think the company's growth has been lacklustre as compared to the industry average. We are also concerned about its concentration in the live video streaming market. Its customer base for the data segment has not been expanding. The company has a decent investor backing but we think given its small size and slow growth, it should trade at a discount to listed cloud peers.

Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn't Warrant a Premium

United States

Qiniu Limited operates as a software company. The Company develops cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service and machine data solutions. Qiniu serves customers in China.

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Qiniu (QNIU US)

Qiniu IPO: Losing Strength

Qiniu’s revenue growth has been driven by its premium MPaaS customers and the drop in GPM in 1Q21 suggests that the number of premium MPaaS users...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Qiniu IPO Initiation: A PasS

Qiniu has filed for a Nasdaq IPO to raise proceeds of $500 million, according to press reports. We think that the several negatives in the Qiniu...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (9th May 2021) - JD Logistics, Anjuke, Waterdrop, Ximalaya, Qiniu, Monde Nissin

Aequitas Research publishes weekly updates on the deals that have been covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs in the...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Qiniu Cloud (七牛云) Pre-IPO: PaaS Doesn't Warrant a Premium

Qiniu Cloud, a leading Platform as a service (PaaS) provider in China, is looking to raise up to USD 500m. We are concerned with its sub-par...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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