Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. </li>
<li>There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)</a><span>has the lowest</span> RORWA </li>
<li>There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. </li>
</ul>


Cost at PNB are high and rising, a major drag on its ROA and RORWA, which largely offsets better credit metrics. 
There are many market positives in India banks, but relative to all large peers, Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)has the lowest RORWA 
There is no LDR expansion at PNB. NIM is languishing. Its high 20% govt loans/total loans is high, with 2 peers' even higher, but better returns. 


Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

<ul>
<li>There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries </li>
<li>The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine</li>
<li>We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress</li>
</ul>


There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries 
The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine
We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress


HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Despite the recent rally in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>, the stock should be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> and passive trackers will need to buy 1x ADV and over 2x delivery volume.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> is safe for now but could be deleted from a large global index in the next few months on further underperformance.</li>
</ul>


Despite the recent rally in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN), the stock should be deleted from the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) in September.

Canara Bank (CBK IN) should be added to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) and passive trackers will need to buy 1x ADV and over 2x delivery volume.

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) is safe for now but could be deleted from a large global index in the next few months on further underperformance.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Should Replace Bandhan Bank

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> Postpones <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novelis-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39969:1" rel="noopener">Novelis Corporation (0620365D US)</a> IPO Amid Market Considerations</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a>'s Tata Motors Finance to Merge with Tata Capital</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-stock-exchange" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23751:1" rel="noopener">National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN)</a> Sets World Record for Highest Number of Transactions in a Single Day</li>
</ul>



Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) Postpones Novelis Corporation (0620365D US) IPO Amid Market Considerations

Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)'s Tata Motors Finance to Merge with Tata Capital

National Stock Exchange (NSEIN IN) Sets World Record for Highest Number of Transactions in a Single Day


#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

<ul>
<li>What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?</li>
<li>Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.</li>
<li>Improvement in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a>'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharti-airtel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:953:1" rel="noopener">Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


What will be implication in case of weaker Modi &amp; BJP mandate?
Public Sector and State-Owned Bank Shares Plunge whole day after poor BJP tally during counting.
Improvement in Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)'s credit profile by FY25 and Higher RoCE for Bharti Airtel (BHARTI IN) and Reliance Industries (RIL IN) 


#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Union Bank of India Limited provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Company's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury and NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities. Union Bank has an online tele-banking facility for all its core banking customers.

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

Indian Overseas Bank operates some 1,429 banking branches in India, as well as six branches in overseas locations.  The Group's banks provide loan and deposit schemes, Internet banking, and a full range of banking services.

YES BANK Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers deposits, personal loans, e-banking, trade finance, corporate, and business banking services. YES BANK serves the food and agribusiness, life sciences, healthcare, biotechnology, telecommunications, media, information technology, and infrastructure development industries in India.

IDBI Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services. The Bank's services include fund-based operations, such as venture capital and fee-based activities, which include merchant banking and debenture trusteeship.

Indian Bank is a full service bank owned by the Government of India. The Bank offers a wide range of services including a foreign currency banking unit at Colombo and specialized overseas branches at Chennai, Bangalore, and Mumbai exclusively for handling foreign exchange  transactions arising out of export, import, remittances and non resident Indian business.

Bank of India, through its subsidiaries, provides corporate, commercial, personal banking, retail, rural, and development banking.  The Group specializes its services towards corporate and medium businesses, in addition to upmarket retail customers.

Central Bank Of India is a full service commercial bank. The Bank's services include taking deposits, lending services, and investing. Central bank operates branches throughout India.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Bank of the Philippine Islands, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial banking services. The Company's products includes ATM, debit card system, credit card, electronic cash card, internet platform and other services.

BDO Unibank Inc provides banking services. The Bank offers saving accounts, investment, loans, credit and debit cards, remittance, insurance, and trade financing services. BDO Unibank serves customers in Philippines.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Bank of Beijing Company Ltd. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers short-, medium- and long-term loans, insurance, foreign exchange, international settlement, government bonds, and other products and services.

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

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Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)

Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

PNB is seeing rising operating costs, languishing NIM, stagnant LDR. Its high government loans may be a key burden on returns. Credit cost decline...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Renewed interest from a potential re-balancing, and a possible MUFG purchase for HDB. It shines on its own: stability, growth, credit metrics, with...

Daniel Tabbush

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Should Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank should replace Bandhan Bank in the NSEBANK Index in September. Canara Bank trades cheaper than its peers. Bandhan could be deleted from...

Brian Freitas

#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Punjab National Bank - Weak Returns, High Costs, High Govt Loans, No LDR Expansion, NIM Down QoQ

PNB is seeing rising operating costs, languishing NIM, stagnant LDR. Its high government loans may be a key burden on returns. Credit cost decline...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Renewed interest from a potential re-balancing, and a possible MUFG purchase for HDB. It shines on its own: stability, growth, credit metrics, with...

Daniel Tabbush

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Should Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank should replace Bandhan Bank in the NSEBANK Index in September. Canara Bank trades cheaper than its peers. Bandhan could be deleted from...

Brian Freitas

#8 India Insight: Novelis IPO Postponed, TMFL Merger, Angle One Client Growth, NSE World Record

​Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...

Sudarshan Bhandari

#7 India Insights: Weaker Modi Mandate, Plunging PSUs, Tata Steel Credit Profile, Reliance, Airtel

​Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Hindalco Industries postpones Novelis Corporation IPO, Tata Motors Finance to merge with Tata Capital, NSE sets world record for transactions in a...

Weaker Modi & BJP mandate leads to plunge in PSUs and state-owned bank shares, while Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, and Reliance Industries see credit...