Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The 3Q24 earnings turned to a net loss, pressured by oil stock losses, forex losses, and seasonal factors.</li><li>We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by a low base effect in 2024E and divestment of unprofitable businesses (Texas Chicken, Kouen).</li><li>The stock price has largely priced in the negative factors and implies upside gain of approximately 13% from the fair value (FV) of Bt17.0.</li></ul>

The 3Q24 earnings turned to a net loss, pressured by oil stock losses, forex losses, and seasonal factors.We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by a low base effect in 2024E and divestment of unprofitable businesses (Texas Chicken, Kouen).The stock price has largely priced in the negative factors and implies upside gain of approximately 13% from the fair value (FV) of Bt17.0.

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Larger-Than-Expected Net Loss Due to Seasonal and Specific Factors

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

<ul><li>The 2Q24 earnings weakened as expected, pressured mainly by the mobility business.</li><li>The 2H24E earnings are likely to continue to be pressured by the mobility business (with both challenging sales volume and GP/liter) .</li><li>Conversely, the lifestyle and global businesses will grow strongly in the period. </li></ul>

The 2Q24 earnings weakened as expected, pressured mainly by the mobility business.The 2H24E earnings are likely to continue to be pressured by the mobility business (with both challenging sales volume and GP/liter) .Conversely, the lifestyle and global businesses will grow strongly in the period. 

OR TB -Weak 2Q24 Earnings as Expected, Weighed Down by Mobility Business

<ul><li>The 2Q24E earnings are expected to have weakened, pressured mainly by the mobility business.</li><li>Meanwhile, the marketing margin should remain challenging in 2H24E, and the full-year marketing margin is likely to align with our projections.</li><li>In particular, the new Petroleum Act, which will be implemented this year, may pose risks to downstream operators (refineries and oil retailers) if oil prices are controlled, as opposed to the current liberalization. </li></ul>

The 2Q24E earnings are expected to have weakened, pressured mainly by the mobility business.Meanwhile, the marketing margin should remain challenging in 2H24E, and the full-year marketing margin is likely to align with our projections.In particular, the new Petroleum Act, which will be implemented this year, may pose risks to downstream operators (refineries and oil retailers) if oil prices are controlled, as opposed to the current liberalization. 

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Weak 2Q24E Earnings, Weighed Down by Mobility Business

<ul><li>The 1Q24 core profit grew strongly QoQ, driven by all businesses (accounting for 26% of the full-year forecast).</li><li>The momentum should continue in 2Q24E. We maintain our 2024E earnings forecast.</li><li>The mobility sector has experienced heightened competition within the oil retail industry, with sales momentum improving since March 2024 following the resolution of the case involving under-filled petrol by a liter in late 2023. </li></ul>

The 1Q24 core profit grew strongly QoQ, driven by all businesses (accounting for 26% of the full-year forecast).The momentum should continue in 2Q24E. We maintain our 2024E earnings forecast.The mobility sector has experienced heightened competition within the oil retail industry, with sales momentum improving since March 2024 following the resolution of the case involving under-filled petrol by a liter in late 2023. 

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Strong 1Q24 Earnings QoQ Thanks to All Businesses

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited distributes petroleum products. The Company offers oil, gas, fuels, LPG, lubricants, and other related items. PTT Oil and Retail Business serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB)

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Larger-Than-Expected Net Loss Due to Seasonal and Specific Factors

We maintain our 2024-26E earnings forecasts, expecting a QoQ recovery in 4Q24E and strong core profit growth at a 28% CAGR in 2025- 26E, driven by...

Krungthai XSpring

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

OR TB -Weak 2Q24 Earnings as Expected, Weighed Down by Mobility Business

The 2H24E earnings are likely to continue to be pressured by the mobility business (with both challenging sales volume and GP/liter) .

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Weak 2Q24E Earnings, Weighed Down by Mobility Business

The current valuation is attractive on share price weakness, and the tactical downside risk is limited. Our Outperform rating is thus maintained,...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Strong 1Q24 Earnings QoQ Thanks to All Businesses

The 1Q24 core profit grew strongly QoQ, driven by all businesses (accounting for 26% of the full-year forecast). The momentum should continue in...

Krungthai XSpring

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