External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).</li><li>Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.</li><li>We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A plan</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A planContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.</li><li>We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

<ul><li>We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t</li><li>We see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.</li><li>We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCO</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/tWe see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCOContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

Amman Mineral Internasional / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Indonesia

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk is a nickel resource and mining company. The Company offers laterite nickel ore, which consists of limonite and saprolite ore, as well as operates nickel smelters in Obi Island that process saprolite ore to produce ferronickel, which can be further processed into stainless steel. Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk serves customers in Indonesia.

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Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT (NCKL IJ)

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%). Both FeNi and MHP...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%). Both FeNi and MHP...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks