External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NCKL bought a 10% stake for Rp2.1tr, growing its income from JV to Rp3.2tr/ Rp3.3tr in FY25/ 26F.</li><li>We raised our FY25/26F forecast by +9.7%/+9.1% on the back of a stronger income from JV and a growing ore contribution.</li><li>Reiterate our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,500. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices and a lower utilization rate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NCKL bought a 10% stake for Rp2.1tr, growing its income from JV to Rp3.2tr/ Rp3.3tr in FY25/ 26F.We raised our FY25/26F forecast by +9.7%/+9.1% on the back of a stronger income from JV and a growing ore contribution.Reiterate our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,500. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices and a lower utilization rate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trimegah Bangun Persada -  Additional 10% Stake in ONC Lifts FY25 Earnings

<ul><li>NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).</li><li>Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.</li><li>We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A plan</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A planContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.</li><li>Ni ore premium rises on a strong restocking phase, whilst NPI rose to US$12k/ton after Gunbuster downsized its operations.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the se</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.Ni ore premium rises on a strong restocking phase, whilst NPI rose to US$12k/ton after Gunbuster downsized its operations.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the seContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Nickel Ore Premium Might Be Here to Stay

<ul><li>Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.</li><li>The Philippine’s nickel ore export ban is tougher than it seems as market condition are no longer favorable and has a lower average ore grade.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector, with TINS, NCKL, and ANTM as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.The Philippine’s nickel ore export ban is tougher than it seems as market condition are no longer favorable and has a lower average ore grade.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector, with TINS, NCKL, and ANTM as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Possible Royalty Hike Could Pressure FY25F Earnings (NEUTRAL)

Indonesia

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk is a nickel resource and mining company. The Company offers laterite nickel ore, which consists of limonite and saprolite ore, as well as operates nickel smelters in Obi Island that process saprolite ore to produce ferronickel, which can be further processed into stainless steel. Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk serves customers in Indonesia.

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Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT (NCKL IJ)

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Additional 10% Stake in ONC Lifts FY25 Earnings

Reiterate our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp1,500. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices and a lower utilization rate.

BRI Danareksa Research

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%). Both FeNi and MHP...

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Metal Mining: Nickel Ore Premium Might Be Here to Stay

Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Possible Royalty Hike Could Pressure FY25F Earnings (NEUTRAL)

Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.

BRI Danareksa Research

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