Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names.

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward.  In additional to highlighting important technical levels across major markets, we reiterate our recommendation to add exposure to global financials, and highlight a number of attractive Financial stocks, with an emphasis on UK and European names. 

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth  increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in 4Q17; * AIA’s (1299.HK) APE declined 28% YOY in 1Q18; and* A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. …

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth  increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in 4Q17; * AIA’s (1299.HK) APE declined 28% YOY in 1Q18; and* A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. …

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. Both factors – along with deferred acquisition cost (DAC) accounting  at AIA - suggest that the new CEO is pushing the envelope in a slow growth environment (especially in…

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable QOQ comparisons. We also question the assumptions that are used to calculate VONB margins - which are somehow at record levels during a more challenging interest rate environment. Both factors – along with deferred acquisition cost (DAC) accounting  at AIA - suggest that the new CEO is pushing the envelope in a slow growth environment (especially in…

AIA – Change in FYE Leads to Additional Growth Questions

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this should be a long-term boon for the mainland Chinese life insurance sector.  China Life (2628.HK) has the most exposure to the nation’s life &amp; pensions industry and is the largest purveyor of pension products.  * Not So Fast: Growth prospects are exciting, but the fact is that the mainland Chinese insurance sector in aggregate has a very questionable…

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary from the rest of the operation. Instead, Pru will now focus on Asia, the United States, and Africa.* Asian Capital Raise Likelier: We would not be surprised to see a significant capital raise in Hong Kong if/when the relationship with Jackson National is terminated. Hiving off the US franchise would allow the shares to trade more on par with AIA…

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary from the rest of the operation. Instead, Pru will now focus on Asia, the United States, and Africa.* Asian Capital Raise Likelier: We would not be surprised to see a significant capital raise in Hong Kong if/when the relationship with Jackson National is terminated. Hiving off the US franchise would allow the shares to trade more on par with AIA…

Prudential Plc – De-Merger Suggests Greater Competition for AIA

United Kingdom

Prudential plc is an international company which provides a wide assortment of insurance and investment products and services. Insurance products include life, accident and health, property and casualty insurance, as well as fixed and variable annuities.  Financial and investment services include personal and group pensions, equity plans, mortgages and deposit accounts.

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Prudential PLC (PRU LN)

Global Equity Strategy: EU and UK Financial Stocks Are Attractive

Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. ...

Vermilion Research

AIA - Slowdown Is Evident

* OCIHK announced that 1Q18 mew business annual premium equivalent (APE) growth increased by 3% YOY in 1Q18, as compared to negative 27% YOY in...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA – Change in FYE Leads to Additional Growth Questions

* Unresolved Accounting Questions: A recently changed FYE to December coupled with a failure to disclose several months of data disallow reasonable...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group Ltd. – Risk & Reward of Chinese Insurance Reforms

* Pension Reform/Foreign Ownership Reforms: Whilst reform has been anticipated for well over a decade, the initial market reaction suggests this...

Thomas J. Monaco

Prudential Plc – De-Merger Suggests Greater Competition for AIA

* De-Merger Announcement: Prudential plc (PRU.LN) [Pru] expects to segregate its United Kingdom (UK) life insurance and asset management subsidiary...

Thomas J. Monaco

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