European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.</li>
<li>MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.</li>
<li>Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.</li>
</ul>


PPF launched a superior partial cash offer at €7.00 per share, positioning itself as a white knight against MFE’s lower-value bid and supporting ProSiebenSat.1’s current strategy.
MFE’s mixed cash-share offer, based on a €5.70 valuation, lacks a premium and aims for creeping control; it has published its offer prospectus but hasn’t raised the price.
Risk arbitrageurs may find an attractive setup in long ProSiebenSat.1, short MFE trades, though apportionment and offer risks require careful sizing and attention to German takeover rules.


Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

<ul>
<li>MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.</li>
<li>The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.</li>
<li>Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.
The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.
Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.


MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a> is not a knock-out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid</li>
<li>New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.</li>
</ul>


At a zero net debt zero net cash (securities liquidated) Adjusted Price/Earnings Ratio of 11.3x expected Net Income, the multiple offered Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP) is not a knock-out.

ENN Energy (2688 HK) investors hoping for a clean (er) exit, or where the back-end terms were clearly defined, will be disappointed. And minorities are active in this name. Avoid
New Trump Tariffs are not based on any actual tariffs, or non-tariff measures. The simple/explicit assumption is that if you run a trade surplus with the US, you are cheating.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-lufthansa-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21667:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR)</a> is not very far away from triggering a change.</li>
<li>Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023 but Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GR) is not very far away from triggering a change.
Separately, I see two changes for the MDAX index and two changes for the SDAX index.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Currently, I see two index changes for the MDAX index and two index changes for the SDAX index.</li>
<li>I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
Currently, I see two index changes for the MDAX index and two index changes for the SDAX index.
I do not see any changes for the DAX index in December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: Two Changes for MDAX and Two Changes for SDAX

Germany

ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE provides FTA and pay TV broadcasting services in Germany, Austria, and the German-speaking part of Switzerland. The Group operates digital entertainment activities such as advertising and subscription based VOD streaming services, a global multi-channel network, and online games. It also invests in digital commerce companies and produces TV programming.

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ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR)

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Aroundtown (AT1 GR) and Siltronic AG (WAF GR) could move from SDAX to MDAX while ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR) and Duerr AG (DUE GR) could move...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: Two Changes for MDAX and Two Changes for SDAX

The expected MDAX changes could have multiple days to trade while the flow expectations for the expected SDAX changes are fairly insignificant.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Broadcast Battles: PPF’s White Knight Bid Challenges MFE’s Media Ambition

PPF launches a superior partial offer for ProSieben, challenging MFE's control bid. A pivotal contest in European media with clear risk-arb angles,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

​MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino, ENN Energy, Trump Tariffs, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX Dec 23: Aroundtown, Siltronic, ProSiebenSat.1, and Duerr

Aroundtown (AT1 GR) and Siltronic AG (WAF GR) could move from SDAX to MDAX while ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (PSM GR) and Duerr AG (DUE GR) could move...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard-DAX Dec 23: Two Changes for MDAX and Two Changes for SDAX

The expected MDAX changes could have multiple days to trade while the flow expectations for the expected SDAX changes are fairly insignificant.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...